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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Until presales started blowing up this week I didn't expect it to be anywhere close to this. I thought it had much less hype than Pikachu.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    True Friday. Previews are an entirely separate thing to predict.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Based on this, final Friday ps should be more like 204k at the 2 MTC which I guess would be 6-6.5 million national ps, which using Charlie's projected multi would be 18-20 million OD. I think it may be a little lower at something like 16 million, which would still be pretty good.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, unless my ratio calculations are wrong. It should finish at about 230k tickets between the 2 MTC. Based on F2 ratios that would be close to 7.5-8 million in national ps, but being a smaller film I'd guess this is more MTC heavy. I think this will be more presale heavy than Alita though, it has hype from gamer crowds. Edit: Do you know about how heavy Pikachu was? Based on old Pulse data it was more presale heavy than Alita. Presale heaviness was closer to Aladdin on Pulse. But I'm not sure if the Pulse data is reliable for this sort of calculation.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Even accounting for kids tickets Friday ps is on track for 7 million+.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Bad Boys was selling really well even the day before. I agree that Sonic will likely be more presale heavy, but it's also looking like it will have significantly higher presales than Bad Boys did. Bad Boys sold 129k tickets between the 2 MTC by the end of Thursday, while Sonic will likely hit that number by the end of Wednesday and be above 200k by the end of Thursday.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    If it indeed hits 130k today that would be amazing. 49k on Wednesday means it would have a good shot to add another 100k on Thursday and finish at 230k (!!!).
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Both of you are wrong. CM made 974 million without China.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    True Friday. I don't consider previews as part of OD. That said, I'm a little worried that the hype among the fanbase will be driving up presales really high. It's possible that this could be a little more presale heavy. I guess the absolute worst case would be a 12 million OD (very very unlikely) if presales follow the normal pattern. I do wish we had Detective Pikachu nationwide data for a comp.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Even if it plays like BOP which was not exactly a walkup monster it will hit 18+ million for the OD.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    As big as your average big MCU solo, probably. The actors aren't Russian so I doubt it'll have a boost there.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Fair enough. But I would say that CM did have a pre-Endgame mania that probably drove down the internal multiplier, something that Black Widow won't have. I'm also not sure that Endgame, being an ending, will have the same effect as the other Avengers films.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    For a non-summer opener CM was indeed quite preview loaded. Only Avengers 2-4 and CA: CWwere more frontloaded through the weekend out of the non-summer openers.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I personally voted for no to both but my second choice would have been yes to both.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Winter Soldier doesn't make sense as a comp since it was released in 2014. Marvel fanbase was much smaller at the time and OS markets were smaller as well. I mean even AMATW was not that far below Winter Soldier.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Perhaps. We'll see how the response to that is. Right now buzz seems a bit lower than Captain Marvel, but still pretty high.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Thinking 120-130 million opening and 330-360 million total based on current buzz.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    I think you are reading way too much into a single comment.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    The Force is not midichlorians. It is a magical energy field. The midichlorians link all living creatures to the Force.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    "A long time ago" For the record I pretty much agree with you that Star Wars and some superhero films should be considered sci-fi, just pointing out that you could find some criteria that would technically exclude them. I do think that there should be some way to limit the number of big franchise films so that lesser-known films will have a better shot.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    What's the difference in Star Wars except that the superheroes are called Jedi?
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    But in that case why wouldn't Guardians be included as it's also a space opera in the SW mold.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Or we could have a limit on number of films per franchise. That would prevent too much cluttering.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    If something like Star Trek (2009) would be allowed, then I don't see why SW or superhero movies should be banned. I sympathize with the goal of banning those movies, but perhaps the list title should be edited to reflect more specific criteria than just "sci-fi", which is a very broad umbrella. Edit: I guess if we go by the dictionary definition ("fiction based on imagined future scientific or technological advances and major social or environmental changes, frequently portraying space or time travel and life on other planets") it actually makes some degree of sense to exclude SW and SH movies, depending on how you define "based on". So I'm changing my vote. Although I do think that definition is a bit narrow and excludes several things that people would typically think of as sci fi.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    That doesn't really make sense to me. I mean something like Guardians, Captain Marvel, etc. clearly qualifies as sci-fi even if its about a superhero. I agree that lesser-known movies would get a fair shot, but it doesn't really make sense to disqualify movies that clearly fall under the genre.
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