Menor the Destroyer

Barbie Marcus Theaters Wed: 9288/10250, 60 shows Thu: 20934/105183, 809 shows Combined comp: 0.947x Black Panther 2 (26.5 million) Fri: 34956/183275, 1407 shows Comp: 0.836x Black Panther 2 (46 million)

They probably can't account for fanbase interest which tends to be more concrete than GA interest. Nolan has a sizeable and engaged fanbase.

I think there's a good case for Barbie going 150+ if it can get to a low-20s preview. Friday sales are great with a better ratio than Spiderverse so I'm not really seeing IM significantly below 7. I guess the question is if it gets limited by being underscheduled, but it definitely seems like the demand is there.

Yeah this show pretty much sucks. I have found all the previous MCU shows to be at least decent, this one I'm having to force myself through. Nothing makes any sense and nothing has any weight.

This looks great. So hyped to see the Rebels gang back together.

Since I am tagged let me just say that weekend sales have me thinking a good bit higher, mid-50s for the weekend.

Barbie's EA is one of the toughest to deal with since it has sold so well and is making up such a big percentage of sales so far. It'll be a bit easier to project after a couple days once we see how much it's adding for EA and Thu. Like if you add EA and Thu then it looks like a very frontloaded Fri ratio while compared to just Thu it looks very backloaded (but then the Thu start is less crazy).

Barbie is gonna be way too big for that raw comp to be of any value.

Thing is Flash had easy comps that made it clear from the start it wasn't opening that huge. Barbie is a bit of an odd duck, even after the first full day of presales I suspect there will be a wide range of possibilities. That said this will clearly be a success from EA starting off that big, it's just a question of how much.

I'm not even sure where the Ant-Man numbers are from, I don't think traditional tracking had that at 120 ever (maybe for 4-day, which it ended up hitting despite being awful). If anything Ant-Man was a case where interest in the movie was underestimated by traditional tracking, but then the very low quality led to it hitting that. Guardians and the two DC films were legit underperformances, yes. I would note that with Guardians it did leg very well, so it's possible tracking just didn't adjust to an MCU fanbase that was jaded from low quality releases and waiting for proof of it being good. Similarly the DC fanbase is in a weird place with the upcoming reboot. I would note though that Transformers underperformed traditional tracking which I believe was 68-70 million, so this list is selective. I also don't agree with excluding Across from the CBM list. It's also mixing and matching BO Pro tracking with NRG-style polling based tracking, and those are different models. There is likely something to audiences becoming a bit tired of a stream of low quality CBMs recently, but this tweet overstates the case.

Keep an eye on the clubs forum in the next couple of days...

Bolts is Christmas.

The truth has been spoken

24ish (not comscore but extrapolation from chain)

I think Deadline may be highballing that number as well. Walkups have been absolutely horrible so far today where I'm tracking and comparing to SV2's pace is making it seem closer to 14. We'll see if it can seriously pick up the pace to hit that Deadline number but I definitely wouldn't put my hopes on it going higher than that.

We also have to account for the Weekend Thread Law -- the more minutely the page count is observed, the faster it shall increase.

I think we have good reason to expect IM of thread to be inversely proportional to IM of Flash.

It's trailer stats were ok, not great but nothing disastrous either. Probably will be a more lighthearted escapism than some of the other options on offer in the fall. If it's good it should do just fine.

Uh...no?

I don't think those had public test screenings. That said we did hear the same thing about Flash, lol

I would not even put Mufasa under expected, I don't think it gets to 100m at all. Feels like a movie with little demand unless it's very very good.

I think it'll be closer to 10m including Mon from most of the updates here. Walkups were decent, not spectacular but enough to preclude the worst case.

Sub-50 is impossible at this stage. Even mid-50s fairly unlikely since walkups today were decent. It seems to be heading for the low 60 range but I'll be curious for the final alpha Fri ps update if we get one.

Feels like maybe low 180s final? Your update for SV2 about an hour later was 314k and it added another 14k from there.

That's still well below +1400 from this point though. I would be quite surprised if it did 1400 in the final update from just 634 in the initial one. Probably more like 1k.