Alexdube
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Posts posted by Alexdube
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8 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
time to wrap things up Kevin, you had a good run
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2 hours ago, Hatebox said:
Well that's kind of the point. After Glass Onion was released my facebook and twitter algorithms were awash wth inane Benoit Blanc memes, but I've seen nothing for this. We can take is as read avatar memes exist somewhere, but given anything moderately popular is memeified and eventually seen by anyone terminally online, their confinement is notable.
Again, not an insult to the movie. I know Avatar fans are exquisitely sensitive to cultural impact discourse and see it as concern trolling, but this is not that. If anything the movie's distance from social media is enjoyably old school. I'm saying I quite like it.
Using your own algorithm which is tailored to your own preferences is one of the worst things you can do to get a general sense of what is going on online (and considering almost every time I see you show up in this thread it's to say something negative, I take it you're no big Avatar fan, so why should your very own algorithm favor this kind of content?)
Avatar has a presence online, I see it come up randomly all the time and in places that are not tailored to my preferences
For example, there is a subreddit called r/moviescirclejerk that makes jokes or memes about online movie culture
4 of the top 6 posts from last month are Avatar related
https://www.reddit.com/r/moviescirclejerk/top/?t=month
Linked some of them here (you'll like #2)
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1 hour ago, MG10 said:
Well yeah now that what's done is done obviously it makes sense, but just a year ago the forecasts for the US were 300M max for Maverick and 500M as the absolute minimum for Avatar (more or less, but I gave the idea)
And there are dozens of countries where pride in their armies is high, the problem more than anything else is that most of them aren't exactly paradises so they should probably focus on something else (Pakistan, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, India, Israel and from what I've heard also Philippines, Thailand and many others)
The forecasts for each movie are kind of irrelevant, it's the DOM/OS distribution that is in question. And just looking at the content in each movie, I don't think it's that mysterious as to why one might perform stronger in the US relative to OS numbers.
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2 hours ago, Jiffy said:
So dumb, US/UK/Japan military allies got themselves twisted with this one. 😄
Americans have pride in their military, other countries do not (whether they are allies or not). If you want to talk about other countries such as Japan or the UK, other factors are at play there and that's not what I'm here to talk about.
But it shouldn't take a genius to understand why an old fashioned pro-military/American movie featuring Tom Cruise might do better domestically relative to the rest of the world than a movie with an anti-imperialist message depicting the bad guys mainly as Americans
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3 hours ago, Jiffy said:
Of two minds about the domestic total. It is a great result after the opening, but if you look at Canada seems there should have been $800m+ potential in NA. I know Europe is generally considered more cynical than America, but wonder if a different sort of cynicism hampered its US potential. Still hard to upset with the result, but TGM shouldn't be winning out even domestically.
one movie is stroking American pride
the other is doing the opposite
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3 hours ago, Sophia Jane said:
Well,back to 140% NWH
what is this 140% of NWH about?
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8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
Box office history doesnt remember actual daily grosses.
It remembers reported daily grosses.
Admission numbers aren't reported for DOM, doesn't stop people from bringing them up and making their own estimates
I think it's fair to mention Avatar was #1 for 41 straight days if you stick to the notion that a day is 24 hours
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$599.99M oh come on 😆
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4 hours ago, Ozymandias said:
i don't say this very often but thank you AMPAS for doing the needful
Glad you came back, we've missed you. Just in time to celebrate Avatar 2 passing the 2 billion mark!
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2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
No.
Through Monday, it's $93.1M.
Through Wednesday, it's $97.6M.
But, yeah. Something's off. But to be honest, all I care about is it crosses $100M. 😂
Through Monday isn't 93M if you use: http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY&startYMD=20230111&endYMD=20230116&searchFrom=Jan-11-2023&searchTo=Jan-16-2023&category=ALL&country=ALL
It didn't make 4.5M in 2 weekdays that's for sure, not this late in the run
Through Monday is now at $95,954,386 (it was adjusted from last time I checked)
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3 hours ago, Royce said:
I dream of an original surprise hit that grosses $2B+ or even $3B
Even the original surprise $1B grossers of the entire 2010s were from established franchises and brands like superheroes and Disney Princesses (except for Zootopia)
it's hard to imagine what could do it
If you look at the past decades, you need either a franchise movie or a big budget production by a proven hit maker. Avatar, Titanic and Jurassic Park weren't really surprises in that sense.
I think you have to go back almost half a century to see that kind of big surprise hit, and that would be Star Wars. And it was at a time when you could still wow audiences with just a bit of technical ingenuity and didn't necessarily need a massive budget.
Another problem is we have yet to find the next Spielberg or Cameron. We have directors that can do big spectacle like Nolan or Villeneuve, but they don't have the same kind of pull with the GA.
I believe it could happen, but still it's very unlikely that something will come out of left field and make 3 billion dollars
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3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
$97.6M is through Wednesday, I think.
yeah I know, through Monday is $96,366,022, still higher than the 93 reported
it's an ER thing it seems
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21 hours ago, Purple Minion said:
that 93 from SK seems low? It's currently at $97,635,722M on http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY
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23 minutes ago, todos said:
Monday matched Friday almost identically.
Can’t wait to read what that means to the film’s doom prospect lol Someone surely has that tea leaf to share.
1 minute ago, Jiffy said:Seeing how other adult films dropped less worried about Monday.
This drop isn't surprising. MLK is not a holiday in Canada where it turns out Avatar is overperforming. Then Avatar is also weaker when the next day is a regular week day because the long running time is a tougher sell
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26 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:
Perhaps bigger than expected Monday drop, but still a solid gain for A2. The model forecasts it to win the battle with ease and finish just shy of 650m. Maybe with a push it can challenge JW.
JEDIWATER SHOWDOWN - AVATAR 2 VS SW: TLJ (EP VIII)
DAY 32: (MONDAY) AVATAR 7.06m
DAY 32: (MONDAY) TLJ 2.77m
WATER TEMP: HOT (+4.29m)
CUME: AVATAR 571.69m VS TLJ 594.9m
SEA LEVEL: MINUS 23.21m
WATER FLOW: 647m
We get to around 650 if Avatar makes the same amount of money TFA did from that point on. Just this weekend it did a good 7M more than TFA. It's going to easily pass JW
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I like that TGM won cinematography and Avatar won best visual effects for the critics' choice awards
They both did something unique in terms of visuals and that's how you reward both
I want to see the same at the Oscars
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1 hour ago, stuart360 said:
I think JW is gone, in fact i'm certain of it as A2 would only need around 53mil off a 21-22mil weekend.
Its bound to do that.
I don't doubt it
I'm seeing this end around 700 as well
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1 hour ago, stuart360 said:
I think Top Gun will keep its domestic crown, although will be upwards of a billion behind A2 worldwide.
I just want 700mil, and i still think it can eek its way there.
It should be at 600mil after next weekend, and next weekend i would think would be in the 21-22mil range. So it would need another 100mil off a 21-22mil weekend.
Thats def tough, but its going to go over 5x its OW, so maybe it can do 5x off next weekends 21-22mil.
as long as it beats Jurassic World I am good
that movie doesn't deserve to be up there, it's just a worst version of the original (apologies to the one JW stan)
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48 minutes ago, Porthos said:
You know, it's funny. Wasn't too long ago that 5x legs was seen as lackluster legs for a property like Avatar.
(well, by at least one partisan)
My how time does fly.
Maybe some posters were overly optimistic, but Cameron has given us plenty of reasons to dream big. And we're still going to dream big for the sequels, we're just getting started 😉
I can only speak for myself, but a top10 dom and top 5 WW would be more than satisfying. And the highest grossing movie of the post-pandemic era
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10 minutes ago, danziger said:
First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW.
Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison.
By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air":
"IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)"
You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend.
that quote is brutal 😆
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52 minutes ago, Verrows said:
I appreciate what you're saying, but it is in fact a very objective perspective.
A2's run is undeniably special but I think, just like Spider-Man: No Way Home last year, the dearth of, well, anything else at the box office is a sobering fact that looms large in the background for all us box office nerds. It's not meant to discredit or minimize Way of Water. I think people like M37 just don't want to pretend these circumstances don't exist.
Well there you said it, "undeniably special" or "exceptional", same thing.
Now that we all agree on that, sure we can bring up circumstances that make the run look less good but the opposite is also true. A2 is also facing hurdles that other movies it's being compared to did not have to face, like that aftermaths of a pandemic for instance. Rest assured that a lot of people are still not too hot about going in a packed theater in the middle of winter. You still need to give people a very good reason to get out of the house, which is what Avatar did, it's not just because "nothing else" is playing.
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56 minutes ago, M37 said:
Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)
If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?
I don't know why some people are so afraid of the word "exceptional". Exceptional doesn't mean "best ever". Avatar 2 is going to land somewhere in the top 10 DOM highest grossing movie of all time from a #37 OW, it is an all around high-end exceptional performance, that is just factual.
Now you can debate with other high-end runs which is the most impressive and bring up all the factoids you want to compare them, but denying that from Avatar kind of just makes you look like you want to downplay the run from a not-so-objective perspective
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1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said:
You can take the silence as I’m doing other things right now. quick look:
Incredibles 2 clearly would have been over 100 and I think ~4.5-5 range, overall I’d expect more impressive legs given the opening if dates were equal
The dark Knight clearly over 100 and probably 4.5-5x legs, same overall opinions
Black Panther same as above 2
Finding Dory comfortably over 100 and over 5x imo
TS4 over 5x imo, ow equivalent is like 140 in June so probably clears 100 in December but not totally confident?
TS3 easy both
Shrek 2 very easily both
The jungle book over 5x, 100 unclear
Wonder Woman would have been over 5x with this date, 100 seems tough
HP1 over 100 easily, 5x ish, overall more impressive with same date
Passion of the Christ easily both
Avatar 1 the most impressive obv
Incredibles 1 probably 5x ballpark, easily over 100
Finding Nemo easily both
Bruce Almighty looks big enough OW, 5x maybe
TPM easily both
Monsters inc easily both
Signs probably ~5x, OW looks maybe
TS2 easily
how the grinch stole Christmas easily over 5x, 100 probably
Batman forever OW easily, 5x maybe
JP1 easily both
Meet the fockers easily both
Might have a couple midweek open false negatives there, tried to double check and remove ones that looked suspicious
That's a long list but quantity doesn't equate quality
Lots of older movies, lots of movies that don't even clear 4x,
Lots of animated movies of course
Any actual December releases?
Batman Forever? dude...
I am not impressed
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52 minutes ago, Alexdube said:
Okay so what are those movies? Give us a list of movies you think are superior to A2 in the sense of relatively strong opening to great legs
I'll take the silence as my answer
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
maybe you though it was mediocre but it received mostly positive reviews, has an A cinemascore and made decent money