By all indications, the movie is really good. But, when your lead star is in rehab and has too many scandals to do press tours, you need to find any alternatives possible to promote the movie.
I feel like Wall-E or Brave numbers would be the best case scenario for this. Maybe Monsters Inc or Ratatouille numbers if word of mouth is REALLY strong.
In hindsight, some of the projections for Lightyear were beyond unfeasible. That movie has a lot of baggage that seems obvious now. It didn't help that it had very little connection it had to Toy Story was confusing in the marketing campaign as to what it actually was.
Not that it makes your point any less salient, though.
That depends on three factors:
1. Is the word of mouth following Cannes strong or mid?
2. Is the last minute push in the marketing going to move the needle?
3. Will there be a large enough demand for families?