JWR
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Posts posted by JWR
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The reviews that come out of Cannes will be critical. Best case scenario, it has good word of mouth and walkups compensate.
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17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Dont forget we have spiderverse which is also an animation movie targeted at families. That is taking away all the hype away anyway apart from what ever issues Disney/Pixar animation have due to D+ in COVID era. I dont see either Elemental or Wish breaking that pattern. IO2 should hopefully be return of form though I am concerned Docter is not at helm.
We'll see. But I won't be surprised. Better hope that Cannes screening helps the word of mouth and that it's walkup heavy.
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Just now, Mickiland16 said:
So depending on how Mermaid performs 2.5M and maybe 3M previews in the cards? This one should be more walk-up heavy since it's an original.
Like most originals and animated family films? Although even that might be optimistic...
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17 minutes ago, poweranimals said:
I just realized that this movie made more money in its second weekend than Shazam 2 did in its entire run.
This movie was always going make more than Shazam 2. But it does further highlight how poorly the later did.
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When do tickets for this go on sale?
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Looks like another Mission Impossible movie. So, it'll probably be great.
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2 hours ago, thajdikt said:
WOM will be off the charts for this, just wait
We'll find out in 10 days...
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As always, word of mouth will make or break this.
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3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
People are getting really crazy with high predicts for this. Let's be generous and say SV2 doubles what the first movie made WW, $400M WW would be very good but not blockbuster level for an animated film. I'm thinking $500 WW MAX.
Bigger OW but more competition and won't have holiday legs like ITSV had back in 2018.
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3 minutes ago, dudalb said:
Yo have to wonder if some voters who are not liberals have just had it with De Santis trying to be a dictator.
Doesn't help that DeSantis isn't even in his own state ATM and is flailing in the polls.
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Good news from Florida for once...
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I feel like Wall-E or Brave numbers would be the best case scenario for this. Maybe Monsters Inc or Ratatouille numbers if word of mouth is REALLY strong.
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3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
For Elemental while There’s a lot of competition, the first big animated movie after it is Ninja Turtles 2 months after it’s release, it can thrive in this spam of time if It’s good enough.
My sentiment as well.
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6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
You can't say that Disney aren't promoting Elemental because they clearly are.
Something tells me this is the beginning of the final push.
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Just now, keysersoze123 said:
Transformers MTC1
Wednesday - 8244/35667 161380.90 179 shows
Previews - 16040/617579 294992.06 3293 shows
At least its not pulling a shazam. If I have to guess its going for ~ 5m previews including fan shows and about 35m OW.
Shazam around similar point(not day of day)
That's damning with faint praise 😅
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2 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:
Problem is that those movies came out at a time when audiences were willing to watch more than just nostalgic toy commercials. And we sadly don't live in that era anymore. So if a Toy Story spin-off can't even hit 120M, what chance would a totally original film have? Would love to be proven wrong of course and the night is still very much young.
In hindsight, some of the projections for Lightyear were beyond unfeasible. That movie has a lot of baggage that seems obvious now. It didn't help that it had very little connection it had to Toy Story was confusing in the marketing campaign as to what it actually was.
Not that it makes your point any less salient, though.
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1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:
Don't know if this will help much, but this is a good move.
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Spider-Verse is the least likely to be affected. It's the only release in June that I feel is a lock.
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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Honestly, the schedule isn't that crazy over the next month after it comes out. Indiana Jones and Mission: Impossible are the only things resembling blockbusters while everything else (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, Insidious, Joy Ride) will obviously be limited in how wide their appeal will be. I guess there's Ruby Gillman for direct competition, but that screams "nonstarter."
In hindsight, I think Universal releasing Mario in April instead of June or July was the best case scenario Disney could have hoped for.
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4 minutes ago, AniNate said:
It's a moot point if Elemental is just mid, but Pixar's financial track record when they do make Oscar-worthy films remains unscathed, and I do think in optimal circumstances Elemental could end up being the movie that hurts everyone else, not the other way around.
That depends on three factors:
1. Is the word of mouth following Cannes strong or mid?
2. Is the last minute push in the marketing going to move the needle?
3. Will there be a large enough demand for families?
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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Elemental is clearly going more for staying power throughout the summer than it is a big opening. I never saw a reason to expect this to open higher than Lightyear did ($50M).
This. The ONLY thing that can save this is word of mouth.
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See... the one thing I'm betting on (and could easily be wrong about) is the fact that Spider-Verse is family-friendly, not exactly a family film the way Mario Bros and Puss in Boots were. It'll do well, but not be the default for people who want something other than a blockbuster.
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Maybe. Damn shame but we'll see how badly this pans out.
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It's only been a few hours.
TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS | 06.09.2023 | Paramount | final gross: $157,066,392
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Damn. Maybe it could pick up a bit as it gets closer? Otherwise, this spells trouble.