JWR
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Posts posted by JWR
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10 minutes ago, AdrianL said:
In terms of domestic not a bad comparison. Rise of Gru thrived due to those tiktok challenge stuff and I imagine this movie will have viral tiktoks of going to the theater.
I've never understood why so many people credit that movie's success to the suit trend thing. Minions 2 did well because the Minions themselves are insanely popular and because it was part of an established franchise.
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7 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:
Wall-e is a sci-fi animated movie... It made 500 million worldwide.
Wall-E is one of the few notable exceptions. But even then, the $521M it made was less than Ratatouille ($624M) and Up ($735M).
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Just now, Welcbr12 said:
The same long range as The Batman (which was 50M, 135M to 185M 3 week before release) and The Batman debuted at the minimum range, now I'm nervous about the The Flash...
A bit too early to be getting nervous, don't you think?
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1 minute ago, AniNate said:
Elio's range probably depends in part on how Elemental does. Its broad synopsis seems pretty mainstream-friendly but I have a hunch the details may end up being somewhat less so.
I think it's interesting that Elemental is being screened at an LGBT-themed film festival in San Francisco next month, though I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.
It's risky because animated sci-fi is almost always box office poison.
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3 hours ago, YM! said:
Yeah the bare minimum is like 150m domestic/400m worldwide for Elemental to keep Wish safe from Trolls 3 and Elio from KFP4. Anything lesser, and the non-sequels stuff and more riskier sequels will get regularly bullied by tentpoles in their spots.
Elio might be an even bigger risk than Elemental considering its release date and its subject matter.
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49 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
He should, shouldn’t he? Don’t executives usually try to avoid bad PR?
Getting booed at BU wasn't great for PR, but nothing too damaging. Pissing off the DGA, WGA, and SAG is a different story.
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5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
I mean Disney is still a draw by the fact The Little Mermaid is going to do gangbusters.
Because The Little Mermaid is cashing on an already much-loved animated film. Whereas this is wholly original and much riskier.
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4 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:
$40M isn't good, but it's not the worst thing. It'll probably outgross Lightyear and at least hit $120M+ unless it somehow has legs as atrocious as that film did. Coco was tracking at $55M-$65M for its 5-day and ended up doing $73M, so there's still room for this to grow and hit $50M+ (provided Cannes reactions are great) and potentially make a run for $200M, although that's wishful thinking at the moment.
It could also just go down into the $30M range, which would be really bad, but we can worry about that later. But a Strange World-level bomb, this probably won't be.
It will need at least $50M just to sniff $200M DOM. $120-180M DOM is a more feasible goal.
It doesn't need to be a mega hit, just needs to do well enough to prove that Disney Animation is still a draw for audiences in theaters.
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On 5/24/2023 at 5:40 PM, BoxOfficeFangrl said:
There was a joint DGA-WGA statement about the MAX credits issue: see, look at Zaslav uniting the industry in hating him!
Not a good look, especially after getting publicly booed.
It's amazing how quickly this guy is becoming the face of everything people hate about huge media conglomerates.
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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
I cannot see Disney moving to South Carolina like at all. They're pretty much committed to Florida and they can wait out DeSantis leaving office in a few years time
They've been in FL before DeSantis came along, and they'll be in FL long after he's gone.
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8 hours ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:
Yeah the fact that projections are increasing is a bit of good news. If this gets universal acclaim at CANNES then maybe it can do like $50M+, which is a good goal for this.
It's a start, I suppose.
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7 minutes ago, AniNate said:
THR corroborating 40m opening
Not good still but not catastrophic prior to Cannes, indicates awareness is picking up at least.
IF this gets the same response as Up or Inside Out at Cannes, that could be what moves the needle.
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1 hour ago, cannastop said:
https://www.thewrap.com/elemental-pixar-box-office-predictions-opening/
Well now the OW is projected to be $40 million...
which is slightly better than the other projection.
Reviews are going to make it or break it on Saturday.
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13 hours ago, dudalb said:
Iger has got to be laughing his head off at the Fiasco that De Santis launching his campaign on twitter has become.
I'll bet he is
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1 minute ago, AniNate said:
Only reactions to the first 25 minutes screened at Cinemacon, which were overwhelmingly positive but ofc so was lightyear's advance footage
Then again, they opted not to show Lightyear at Cannes, so...
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3 minutes ago, Lucas said:
I haven't paid much attention to this one, is there any early word of how good/bad it may be?
We'll find out on Saturday.
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As always, Pixar movies will live and die based on word of mouth. This has the unfortunate job of needing to be their "comeback" after Lightyear.
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4 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
I mean I guess Pixar is feeling what Marvel is feeling, but Marvel releases so much it's easier for them to get "back" in audience good graces.
Pixar from 1995-2010 released 0 films with a 72 or lower MC score (11 films)
2011-(mid)2017 they released 5 films with a 72 or lower MC score (7 films)
(late)2017-2023 they released 3 films with a 72 or lower MC score (9 films)
All of Pixars films, outside of Cars, has a 7.2/10 or higher on MC's user reviews (except Good Dinosaur and the review bombed Turning Red/Lightyear)
At this point, I think they'd settle for this movie breaking even.
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4 minutes ago, 21C said:
Between The Flash and Justice League I kinda wonder if this means that Batman isn't that big a draw in team-up films. It'd make sense since audiences have been conditioned to think of Batman as a solo property, and his most succesful incarnations have been the "grounded" ones. The fact Flash points to be opening significantly lower than The Batman even though The Batman was a new incarnation of the character and Flash has Keaton, seems to point to that as well.
Perhaps grounded/realistic solo Batman truly is the Batman that modern audiences prefer. Something that Gunn will have to keep in mind.I don't know if Justice League is a good example. They could have thrown the Teen Titans and Justice Society in that movie, yet it still would have had to pay for the sins of people not liking BvS.
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22 minutes ago, dudalb said:
Chapek got promoted abobe his level of competence, as the saying goes.
He was good as an pure adminstraor, but was lousy dealing with the talent and had a crappy public personality. The latter might not be important for most studio heads, but it is for Disney.
The latter is what especially sank him.
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2 minutes ago, raegr said:
guys im so sad. i was really looking forward to flash doing well
It still might.
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Three things have to go right for this movie just to have a chance at success:
1. The final stretch of marketing in the next 3 weeks reaches enough of the GA to put in on their radar
2. Enough people need to be in search of a non-blockbuster, light breezy family film they can take their kids to
3. The word of mouth needs to be stellar.
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9 hours ago, Flopped said:
You gotta love how the marketing team has swept Ezra Miller's monstrous abuse under the rug by basically going "yeah yeah yeah sure he beat and choked a bunch of people BUT ONCE YOU SEE THE MOVIE YOU'LL FORGET ALL THAT!!!"
What else can they do?
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32 minutes ago, Grebacio said:
Y'all forgetting the craziest song choice for a TV Spot
To be fair, this was only two years after Sony used Nickelback....
Elemental | Disney/Pixar | June 16, 2023 | What if elements have feelings?????? 😱😱😱😱 | Surprise sleeper hit with the biggest 2023 premiere on Disney+
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
They're also doing a promotional tour of the film's setting.
Regardless of how it turns out, it seems like Disney is doing their best not to have another Strange World on their hands.