BestPicturePlutoNash

Going by what Gold Derby has (which I wouldn't agree with but alas) DRAMA: Anatomy of a Fall Killers of the Flower Moon (RUNNER-UP) Maestro Oppenheimer* Past Lives ALT: Zone of Interest. Globes love December releases and big stars but this feels right DRAMA ACTOR: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Colman Domingo, Rustin (RUNNER-UP?) Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer* Andrew Scott, All of us Strangers ALT: Joaquin Phoenix, Napleon. Scott in the last spot. European appealing film, Dec release, great acclaim. Maybe Hopkins surprises DRAMA ACTRESS: Annette Bening, Nyad Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall* Greta Lee, Past Lives Carey Mulligan, Maestro (RUNNER-UP) ALT: Natalie Portman, May December This is tough. Feel very good about Huller and Mulligan. Lee is on the fringe for Oscar but she has a waiver to campaign and promote. Bikeriders feels like another Jeff Nichols nonfactor but Comer is a popular rising star and she was raved. It has a December release so she'll feel fresh. Pundits will push Bening but the movie already feels like a flop and with an Oct release, an afterthought. But she might have more of a narrative than Portman COMEDY/MUSICAL: American Fiction Barbie (RUNNER-UP) The Color Purple The Holdovers Poor Things* ALT: Air American Fiction with the TIFF award and fall season release gets in over Air COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR: Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario Timothee Chalamet, Wonka Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers* Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (RUNNER-UP) ALT: Jamie Foxx, The Burial Lots of names to choose from. And maybe even Powell if Hitman is 2023? Wonka is a big Christmas movie and excuse to nominate a star like Chalamet. Cage is a wildcard but legendary actor with a well-acclaimed performance in a fall release from a hip studio they like. Bernal is a previous Globe winner and has a big showy performance. Foxx's nom would be a nice moment but movie might be forgotten soon. Next Goal Wins feels too floppy for Fassbender. COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings Margot Robbie, Barbie (RUNNER-UP) Emma Stone, Poor Things* ALT: Eve Hewson, Flora and Son 3 locks. Going with 2 big names in last spots. Globes love JLD and her movie/performance were well-received. JLaw in 5th spot but she was raved and would be a fun namecheck. Maybe Halle Bailey but they're hit/miss with Disney. Sydney Sweeney would be a lock if her romcom was releasing but I doubt SUPPORTING ACTOR: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie* Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (RUNNER-UP) ALT: Charles Melton, May December 4 safe bets. Going with Dafoe as the star namecheck in a film they will love. But many alternatives. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction, possibly an afterglow nom for Austin Butler in Bikeriders. Melton feels like the random rising star nom they'd do, watch out for Howerton in Blackberry. Not feeling Sessa, Hedges missed here. SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Ferrari Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Jodie Foster, Nyad Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon* Da'vine Randolph, The Holdovers (RUNNER-UP) ALT: Someone from Color Purple 3 bets I feel good about. Cruz is a beloved international star and got MVP notices for a big film releasing in Christmas. Not feeling someone from Color Purple but I would default to Henson. Maybe Viola Davis but she's more of SAG royalty and it was an early release. Possibly Julianne Moore? Globes love Jodie Foster but read above for Bening DIRECTOR: Greta Gerwig, Barbie Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (RUNNER-UP) Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer* Alexander Payne, The Holdovers Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon ALT: George Clooney, Boys in the Boat I think there's 4 looking good. Alexander Payne is adored and this is his comeback film. This category is usually very silly and baised so I'd keep an eye on Clooney. Maybe Ridley Scott even strikes again. Not feeling Cooper in Director when the film has weaker reception than Star is Born and he's getting his Actor nom. Justine Triet is a possibility but I feel she's more of a BAFTA choice or the Academy "surprise" nom SCREENPLAY: Anatomy of a Fall Barbie* Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things (RUNNER-UP) ALT: American Fiction There's a solid 4. I'm going Anatomy over Holdovers. Not being written by Payne didnt prevent Nebraska's nom, but this and director never go 5/5. Gut feeling is this is where they throw a bone to Huller. Watch out for American Fiction.

Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall Greta Lee, Past Lives Carey Mulligan, Maestro Margot Robbie, Barbie Emma Stone, Poor Things

1. Dazed and Confused 2. The Age of Innocence 3. Rudy 4. Schindler's List 5. Batman: Mask of the Phantasm 6. Jurassic Park 7. Shortcuts 8. Naked 9. Groundhog Day 10. The Long Day Closes 11. Sleepless in Seattle 12. Philadelphia 13. Carlito's Way 14. Addams Family Values 15. Blue 16. Dead Alive 17. M. Butterfly 18. Perfect World 19. Manhattan Murder Mystery 20. What's Eating Gilbert Grape 21. Super Mario Bros 22. Another Girl on the IRT 23. Malice 24. Body Snatchers 25. The Fugitive 26. Hard Target 27. Jack the Bear 28. The Piano 29. Menace II Society 30. This Boy's Life

Post fests: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Flower Moon Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Post festivals: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. Poor Things 4. Flower Moon 5. The Holdovers 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. Past Lives 8. Maestro 9. Zone of Interest 10. Air ALT: American Fiction

i really want to see barbie in 4dx this week since i never have done 4dx and cant imagine how a barbie seat shaking experience would be.. sadly regal only and im an a-list girlie i will try seeing in imax next week after expendables even though the amc lincoln square doesnt appear to be screening it

Shape of Water

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2023/air-golden-globes-comedy-musical/ Air is submitting Comedy at the Golden Globes

January 2nd: I Wanna Dance With Somebody (2022) January 5th: Megan January 7th: No Bears (2022) January 13th: Plane January 14th: Skinamarink January 14th: House Party January 20th: You People January 24th: When You Finish Saving the World January 25th: Pathaan January 26th: Infinity Pool January 29th: Fear February 2nd: 80 For Brady February 2nd: Knock At the Cabin February 9th: Barbie (test screening) February 11th: Magic Mike's Last Dance February 13th: The Outwaters February 16th: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania February 23rd: Cocaine Bear March 5th: Creed 3 March 7th: Operation Fortune March 9th: Scream 6 March 11th: Champions March 11th: 65 March 16th: Shazam: Fury of the Gods March 19th: Dungeons and Dragons March 23rd: A Good Person March 25th: John Wick: Chapter 4 March 29th: Air April 3rd: Enys Men April 3rd: A Thousand and One April 5th: The Super Mario Brothers Movie April 6th: The Five Devils April 7th: Showing Up April 7th: How To Blow Up A Pipeline April 13th: Beau Is Afraid April 15th: Renfield April 15th: De Humani Corporis Fabrica April 16th: Suzume April 19th: Are You There God, It's Me Margaret April 20th: Evil Dead Rise April 24th: The Covenant April 24th: Trenque Lauquen April 25th: Somewhere in Queens April 27th: Sisu May 1st: Polite Society May 1st: Carmen May 2nd: RMN May 4th: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 May 5th: Love Again May 10th: The Eight Mountains May 10th: TEST SCREENING May 11th: Hypnotic May 12th: Blackberry May 13th: Fool's Paradise May 13th: The Starling Girl May 17th: Maestro (test screening) May 18th: Fast X May 18th: Master Gardener May 19th: Sanctuary May 23rd: L'Immensita May 23rd: Chile '76 May 25th: You Hurt My Feelings May 25th: About My Father May 28th: The Little Mermaid June 1st: Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse June 1st: Past Lives June 3rd: The Boogeyman June 9th: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts June 14th: Blue Jean June 15th: The Flash June 15th: Asteroid City June 16th: The Blackening June 18th: Scarlet June 18th: Elemental June 24th: No Hard Feelings June 29th: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny July 1st: Joy Ride July 7th: Insidious: The Red Door July 10th: TEST SCREENING July 11th: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One July 14th: Theater Camp July 15th: Afire July 19th: Barbie (x2) July 21st: Oppenheimer July 26th: Haunted Mansion July 27th: Circus Maximus August 1st: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem August 6th: Passages August 7th: Shortcomings August 17th: Blue Beetle August 17th: Strays August 21st: The First Slam Dunk August 23rd: Our Body August 24th: Winter Kills (re-release) August 24th: Gran Turismo August 24th: Bottoms August 28th: Sound of Freedom September 3rd: The Equalizer 3 September 5th: Rocky Aur Rani September 7th: Jawan September 7th: The Nun 2 September 8th: Rotting in the Sun September 9th: Haunting in Venice September 13th: Dumb Money

Went to the dumb money early access. dumb movie. Remember when movies looked good? This looks like being in a dentist office. It's already color graded to look like some random movie you scroll by on Hulu and half-heartedly watch in a month. Prestige TV ass movie. But the theater of girlies laughed throughout, especially at Pete Davidson.. so I'm curious how it plays and expands

barbie should be Adapted but I wonder if the Academy just defaults since everyone considers it such an "original" take, etc. We shall see As of now, pre TIFF audience winner: PICTURE: Poor Things (alt: Oppenheimer) DIRECTOR: Lanthimos, Poor Things (alt: Nolan, Oppenheimer) ACTOR: Giamatti, The Holdovers (alt: Murphy, Oppenheimer) ACTRESS: Stone, Poor Things (alt: Huller, Anatomy of a Fall) SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ruffalo, Poor Things (alt: Gosling, Barbie) SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (alt: Randolph, The Holdovers) ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Barbie (alt: Anatomy of a Fall. Holdovers alt if Barbie goes Adapted) ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Poor Things (alt: Oppenheimer. Barbie if Adapted) The techs will be divided between Oppenheimer, Barbie and Poor Things

the holdovers won't beat barbie or anatomy

looks like the greatest movie ever

WGA has deemed it Original, too. It just depends on what the Academy does.. which will probably followsuit. This could very well be Greta's (and Baumbach) Oscar moment. Adapted would be very tough with Poor Things (and Oppenheimer and Flower Moon locked for noms). In Original, the biggest threat is probably.. Anatomy of a Fall? Holdovers and Past Lives probably too small and less likely overall contenders... but the writers should be more inclined to embrace a giant highconcept comedy like this with a preaching social message baked in

https://x.com/TheGregoryE/status/1702012262473679229?s=20 1a “Oppenheimer” Are we looking at a record number of nominations or not? 1b “Poor Things” Everyone’s talking about Emma Stone getting Best Actress win no. 2, but could this be Oscar win no. 1 for Mark Ruffalo? 3 “Killers of the Flower Moon” If Apple, Paramount, and Marty deliver a legitimate box office hit, anything is possible. 4 “Barbie” Honestly, we wanna know if both Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish can get nominated for Best Original Song. I mean, they are both going to get submitted, right? 5 “Anatomy of a Fall” If it really does qualify as France’s International Film submission (super competitive and not official yet), it will help NEON in other competitive categories immensely. 6 “Zone of Interest” A LAFCA, NYFCC, or National Board of Review win would be a massive help. 7 “Maestro”* Strong reviews out of Venice. It’s hard to believe Netflix won’t get this one in. 8 “Past Lives” Genuinely concerned that it might get lost among the fall titles and A24’s heavy release schedule, the box office crossed $11 million domestically, which was no small feat. It’s been seen. 9 “The Color Purple”* Sure, there might be a SAG strike going on deep into the season, but when one of your key producers to campaign for you is the one and only Oprah? Yeah, you’re good. 10 “The Holdovers” Focus should have enough to get this one across the finish line. Maybe.

it has everything going for it despite no awards happening yet

Giamatti, The Holdovers Fassbender, Next Goal Wins Powell, Hit Man/Anyone But You Wright, American Fiction Chalamet, Wonka Cage, Dream Scenario Dano, Dumb Money Platt, Theater Camp Schwartzman, Asteroid City Vatanen, Fallen Leaves Yakusho, Perfect Days And they could push borderline films such as Saltburn into Comedy paving the way for Keoghan or Foxx in The Burial

it was also a late-breaking holiday release with the best reviewed at the time performance from DiCaprio

January 2nd: I Wanna Dance With Somebody (2022) January 5th: Megan January 7th: No Bears (2022) January 13th: Plane January 14th: Skinamarink January 14th: House Party January 20th: You People January 24th: When You Finish Saving the World January 25th: Pathaan January 26th: Infinity Pool January 29th: Fear February 2nd: 80 For Brady February 2nd: Knock At the Cabin February 9th: Barbie (test screening) February 11th: Magic Mike's Last Dance February 13th: The Outwaters February 16th: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania February 23rd: Cocaine Bear March 5th: Creed 3 March 7th: Operation Fortune March 9th: Scream 6 March 11th: Champions March 11th: 65 March 16th: Shazam: Fury of the Gods March 19th: Dungeons and Dragons March 23rd: A Good Person March 25th: John Wick: Chapter 4 March 29th: Air April 3rd: Enys Men April 3rd: A Thousand and One April 5th: The Super Mario Brothers Movie April 6th: The Five Devils April 7th: Showing Up April 7th: How To Blow Up A Pipeline April 13th: Beau Is Afraid April 15th: Renfield April 15th: De Humani Corporis Fabrica April 16th: Suzume April 19th: Are You There God, It's Me Margaret April 20th: Evil Dead Rise April 24th: The Covenant April 24th: Trenque Lauquen April 25th: Somewhere in Queens April 27th: Sisu May 1st: Polite Society May 1st: Carmen May 2nd: RMN May 4th: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 May 5th: Love Again May 10th: The Eight Mountains May 10th: TEST SCREENING May 11th: Hypnotic May 12th: Blackberry May 13th: Fool's Paradise May 13th: The Starling Girl May 17th: Maestro (test screening) May 18th: Fast X May 18th: Master Gardener May 19th: Sanctuary May 23rd: L'Immensita May 23rd: Chile '76 May 25th: You Hurt My Feelings May 25th: About My Father May 28th: The Little Mermaid June 1st: Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse June 1st: Past Lives June 3rd: The Boogeyman June 9th: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts June 14th: Blue Jean June 15th: The Flash June 15th: Asteroid City June 16th: The Blackening June 18th: Scarlet June 18th: Elemental June 24th: No Hard Feelings June 29th: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny July 1st: Joy Ride July 7th: Insidious: The Red Door July 10th: TEST SCREENING July 11th: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One July 14th: Theater Camp July 15th: Afire July 19th: Barbie (x2) July 21st: Oppenheimer July 26th: Haunted Mansion July 27th: Circus Maximus August 1st: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem August 6th: Passages August 7th: Shortcomings August 17th: Blue Beetle August 17th: Strays August 21st: The First Slam Dunk August 23rd: Our Body August 24th: Winter Kills (re-release) August 24th: Gran Turismo August 24th: Bottoms August 28th: Sound of Freedom September 3rd: The Equalizer 3 September 5th: Rocky Aur Rani September 7th: Jawan September 7th: The Nun 2 September 8th: Rotting in the Sun September 9th: Haunting in Venice

poor things will beat oppenheimer, probably

no it wouldn't have. especially in the year of 2009. theres no comparable genre contender like that. It also had a C+ cinemascore

I would still feel really good about the ones I last posted, especially pre-TIFF awards. But I think Salburn will miss the cut and I'm still nervous about Zone of Interest. The Haigh will have fans but not BP support. Wright seems to be having a moment with American Fiction but the tone and weakness of the distributor leaves it out for me. Globes, though! The same goes for Hitman. Sounds like a Linklater crowdpleaser but we'll see who picks it up and if it has the prestige gravitas to be the old dude bromance of the year (Green Book, Banshees, etc). Miyazaki would be a fun NGNG 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Flower Moon 4. Barbie ------- 5. The Holdovers 6. Past Lives ----------- 7. Anatomy of a Fall -------- 8. Zone of Interest ------ 9. Air ------- 10. Maestro

For someone who averages as many posts and as much activity on this site, it's remarkable common sense and humor has never once rubbed off on you I've seen the movie. I've read the reviews. "Critical raves" is a cute term to describe the letterboxd, metacritic and rotten tomatoes scores. I would predict it but come on, dude

do you ever say anything that's observant, insightful or meaningful? Maestro is far from a lock regardless of Netflix prioritization

he "def" wont be placed there lol. people said the same about like Pitt in Hollywood