I was lowballing TGM at 30m this weekend b/c I didn't want a repeat of my 3rd weekend disappointment. Still doesn't bring me joy to know I got it right
Nice thorough analysis here, though its 6th weekend will likely be almost flat from its 5th due to July 4th and PLF expansion, though I can see it dropping sharply to 17m in its 7th weekend due to Thor taking away all of its PLF screens yet again
I suspect that Elvis is going to eat into it's audience, but the return of PLF should mask any negative effect. I would assume the 4.7m figure is before accounting for its new showings (Also TGM outperformed EC's early estimate by 0.3m yesterday)
Last time 5x happened to a Friday summer blobkbuster that made it to the top 10 was Jurassic Park in 1993 I think (ironically the first film to open over $50m, though finding Nemo was close with 4.84x) counting mid-week openings, I think TPM was the last to do over 5x
if that's the case today should have been about 4m for TGM, so tmrw should be about 4.5-5m, which would be a 35-40% drop. Idk seems a bit steep to me. I'd say this is more akin to a July 4th style bump (30%)
It should given that it's technically a holiday this year, even if the effects haven't been fully felt yet. The bigger question is if it can keep ahead of Avatar in dallies for the rest of the week (Avatar did 5m, 4.7m, 4.7m). I'm personally hedging my bets towards TGM doing 6, 5, 5 for the rest of the week, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.