Cheddar Please

I do not see that happening, but we'll see. Even if it had identical weekdays to A1's 3rd weekday frame that would only get it to 70m, just over TGM's 69m Edit: My bad, I thought we were talking about Domestic weekly frame lol

Imagine the reaction if this films final ends up being between 700-717m DOM lol

Honestly I can definitely see OW deflation in the Top 20 Domestic being a thing going forwards. High openers like MCU films are struggling to hit high numbers outside of OW due to franchise fatigue, while films like TGM, A2, and even to an extent NWH only managed to crack the top 10 off the backs of good WOM and legs. In addition, the theatrical environment nowadays seems to be favoring a few muted but well-received blockbusters to leg it out throughout their frames. Overall, I predict (or at least I hope) to see more 4x+ multi blockbusters crack the top 10 this decade.

What's the reasonable probability of it going over 700m at this point, and what would be a reasonable range to project?

what is the reasonable prediction range nowadays? @XXR the Conqueror @M37

I thought we learned this with Top Gun. Literally nothing coming out this year other than A2 looked like it would be top 10 material and here we are.

Avatar coming in above Sheldon's estimates???

My rationale is that if the distribution starts at 530-690 it would be symmetric, with median of ~610 as you said, I just think based on the trends, the lower bound can be eliminated at this point, whereas there is still enough uncertainty about it's post holiday run as to not rule out the upper bound, not to mention the lack of competition in January pushing the potential for an outlier overperformance, thus leading me to a 570-700m range that's skewed right

Also only 35 pages so far???

keep in mind the probability distribution here is skewed right

580-710m range currently, which ironically enough is back to the range I had right after OW

if it stays relatively close to TGM and Avatar for Tue-Thr then 600m is guaranteed

yeah but you're not maximizing potential that way. There's a reason both RO and A2 made ridiculous figures on Monday despite it not being a weekend. Having Boxing Day on a Saturday is the best way of maximizing box office potential. There's a reason why both blockbusters released on that configuration ended up taking the all time record (Titanic and all previous record holders did so due to legs, so not having the window didn't really matter)

Yeah idk why some people were saying weekday Christmas is the best alignment. Having Christmas Eve and New Years Eve on the least productive day of the week and Boxing Day on the most productive day of the week is literally the perfect outcome

Also b/c y'all haven't done this yet:

Over OG Avatar would be pretty funny ngl, let's go for it!

its going up, its only gone up from estimates so far this week

57-63m seems reasonable at this point

I'm sorry to both of y'all but I am not reigniting debate on this subject. Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that.

Warning: Rant Rant over. To the mods, this is all I will say on the subject EDIT: I realize I was late to this convo, if mods want me to take this down I will

14.5 take it or leave it

when did you get access to said data?

at this rate his predictions gonna be over endgame by friday