Cheddar Please

You love to see it

tbf the MCU has not fallen completely off a cliff. Quantumania may have had horrible legs and reception, but it did also demonstrate that there is still a consistent base of MCU fans that have continued to stick by the brand despite its recent missteps, thanks in large part to the goodwill from the Infinity Saga, which while greatly diminished, has not been entirely wiped out, with its OW being clear proof of that. Combined with the fact that the MCU's output still remains at the very least mixed and not downright bad, and the fact that there remains few consistent competitors in the superhero genre, means that I'd expect the Marvels, and the MCU as a whole to continue limping on with consistently high OWs (prob 80m+ for the Marvels), but with legs entirely dependent on WOM

You clearly weren't in the midst of the Endgame hype train, basically, every MCU project in its wake was bound to get a massive lift, in fact I remember when Captain Marvel literally held flat for 3 weekends straight leading up to Endgame because of everyone wanting to go see it and anticipation for it's release. In fact people were trying to catch up on every MCU film at that time regardless to whether or not they were strictly important to the plot line or not. It was definitely a different era as strange as it sounds only a few years later.

None, but tbf there is also no precedent for a blockbuster of this size dropping only 18% from Monday - Thursday after having already dropped a mere 40% on it's first Monday

Even GoTG3 got hit hard by MCU fatigue, it's predecessor opened 20m higher despite 6 years of inflation and I recall gross estimates back in 2021 being as high as 500m (which it might have arguably hit had it opened in place of MOM)

I still am utterly confused as to what the controversy around this movie is

tbf wasn't that zone also present in 2019? No movie grossed between 333m-211m that year. In fact since 2016, only 2 movies have grossed squarely in the middle of that range, Despicable Me 3 and the Grinch (coincidentally both Illumination movies)

Not if a September re-release has anything to say about it

I feel like the Friday number ending up in line with expectations (29m would normally be indicative of a 100m+ weekday) is what makes this whole situation pretty puzzling because that the Friday number had been 27m as early estimates predicted would be underwhelming but still within range of expectations. A 10% jump on Saturday, however, is frankly unprecedented to my knowledge

In that case, I'd be very interested in knowing what kind of number it's about to post on Monday 👀

What's the reason behind the minimal weekend jump though? I would have assumed that matinees on Sat and Sun would enable Barbie to play at the very least reasonably higher than the weekdays

yeah my mistake, thanks for correcting me

(1) Barbie Warner Bros. $29,000,000 +37% -59% 4,337 $6,687 $287,402,851 8 (2) Oppenheimer Universal $13,400,000 +34% -59% 3,647 $3,674 $141,270,430 8 Honestly, it's astounding to me that Barbie ended up having a better increase than Oppenheimer, despite people saying that Oppy was bound to be more weekend-heavy. I guess it's pretty clear which movie is about to have the better legs...

I know this might seem a bit premature, but how are presales for the next weekdays looking for Barbie and Oppenheimer? I wonder if this week's grosses were in fact inflated by spillover or could this be a trend?

Tbf Saturday's drop was probably due to capacity limitations, OW Friday being elevated from Barbie's consistent 26-21m weekday figures was probably only due to Opening day rush

so much for the "90m is dead" gang

Fuck it, $101.63m for Barbie

He also said 20-21 as a conservative estimate even this early, which should bode well for over 20m today

Personally, as much as 100m does seem a tad optimistic, I can't really see a scenario in where Barbie's Friday gross falls below it's Monday gross, that would be virtually unprecedented.

First of all, I have a feeling Sunday is going to be higher than Friday due to more showings, and secondly, I was referring more so to mid-lower 80m range, I wouldn't be too surprised if it just about missed 90m, albeit I don't consider it the most likely outcome

It's funny how the trend now they seem to be actually in favor of OW deflation. NWH remains the only film in 4 years to have opened above $200m, despite inflation having made that feat much easier. Meanwhile, outside of the MCU, every other major blockbuster in the last few years seems to be trending towards to lower openings and stronger legs 2019 Blockbusters Captain Marvel: 153m OW > 2.78 Avengers Endgame: 357m OW > 2.40 Aladdin: 91.5m OW > 3.89 Toy Story 4 > 120m OW > 3.62 The Lion King > 191m OW > 2.83 It Chapter 2: 91m OW > 2.26 Joker: 96m OW > 3.49 Frozen 2: 130m OW > 3.66 Star Wars IX: 177m OW > 2.90 Avg OW: 152.3m Avg multi: 2.98 Now let's compare to post-COVID blockbusters: Non-MCU blockbusters 2022-2023: The Batman: 134m OW > 2.76 Top Gun Maverick: 127m OW > 5.67 JW Dominion: 145m OW > 2.59 Minions 2: 107m OW > 3.45 Avatar 2: 134m OW > 5.10 Super Mario: 146m OW* > 3.93 (3.53 if you subtract opening Wed and Thr) The Little Mermaid: 95m OW > 3.10 Spiderman ATSV: 120m OW > 3.12 Barbenheimer: 244m OW > ~3+ Avg OW: 125.2m Avg multi: 3.715 There has been one major exception to this rule, which is the MCU, which remains comparative frontloaded: No Way Home: 260m OW > 3.09* (OG release) Dr. Strange 2: 187m OW > 2.11 Thor 4: 144m OW > 2.38 Black Panther 2: 181m OW > 2.50 AMaTW: 106m OW: 2.02 GoTG Vol. 3: 118m OW > 3.03 Avg OW: 166m Avg multi: 2.52

It's more that I don't believe that's where I will trend. Right now the possibility is that it would either outtrend I2 (which it has ATM) or it will fall behind. Imo if it gets 90m that puts it on pace to outgross I2, as by the time Barbie runs into more competition, it will have pulled away sufficiently enough from I2 to grant it a bit of leeway

If it makes 90m this weekend it will have caught up to Incredibles 2 despite opening 20m under. Imo the chances of it going over I2 are reasonably high, but in the case that it begins to fall off, i don't see it landing between SMB and I2 on account of how narrow that range is