Cheddar Please

Well, after 2 months of boring BO results, this movie has certainly brought me back! What did I miss?

Imagine if Sonic 2 outgrosses Quantumania

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but so far for both MOM and L&T we've seen weekend projections collapse to 5x IM every when people projected that it was gonna be higher, I don't see how this is gonna be any different given that Quantumania is getting similar reviews to those two.

that doesn't look like 100 to me...

$115,115,115

2/10 6,884,000 646,919,732 -39.27% Titanic Rerelease 2/14 2,200,000 649,119,732 -28.57% Valentine's Day 2/17 4,500,000 653,619,732 -34.63% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd 2/21 2,000,000 655,619,732 -9.09% President's Day 2/24 2,500,000 658,119,732 -44.44% 2/28 850,000 658,969,732 -57.50% TOTAL 11,100,000 670,069,732 This last weekend for Avatar, while still strong given the circumstances, was nonetheless weaker than I expected. At this rate, passing Infinity War is looking more and more difficult without a potential expansion. However, given Titanic's weaker-than-expected rerelease, passing that film is still firmly on the table. Ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 films are only a few million apart in the 670m range by the start of summer.

1/31 4,771,139 625,620,443 -26.27% 2/03 11,000,000 636,620,443 -31.11% 2/07 3,300,000 639,920,443 -30.83% 2/10 7,750,000 647,670,443 -29.55% 2/14 2,500,000 650,170,443 -24.24% 2/17 4,750,000 654,920,443 -38.71% 2/21 2,200,000 657,120,443 -12.00% 2/24 2,700,000 659,820,443 -43.16% 2/28 1,000,000 660,820,443 -54.55% TOTAL LOW: 665m HIGH: 680m These next coming weeks aren't going to be nice to Avatar with PLF losses this week, Titanic opening next week, and Ant-Man the following weekend, so expect some more serious drops ahead. Nonetheless, passing IW is still within the range of possibilities, even as the high-end has begun to shrink in the past few days.

A2's good holds came early in its run when there was little competition, TGM's best holds are from now on where it has no competition for the rest of its run

almost impossible at this point given its current trajectory, it's been settling into a pretty predictable pattern as of late that will land it squarely around 665-685m

Probably, I do think Titanic and Ant-Man will mark the end of this run of good holds, but given the fact that this weekend could be a sub-20 drop, and given that these weekends have been performing better than my expectations almost every time, I'm cautious about penciling in steeper drops too early.

1/24 6,471,312 604,880,771 -52.59% 1/27 16,200,000 621,080,771 -19.54% 1/31 4,700,000 625,780,771 -27.37% 2/03 12,400,000 638,180,771 -23.46% 2/07 3,500,000 641,680,771 -25.53% 2/10 9,000,000 650,680,771 -27.42% Titanic Rerelease 2/14 2,500,000 653,180,771 -28.57% Valentine's Day 2/17 5,500,000 658,680,771 -38.89% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd 2/21 2,325,000 661,005,771 -7.00% President's Day 2/24 2,700,000 663,705,771 -50.91% 2/28 1,000,000 664,705,771 -56.99% TOTAL 12,000,000 676,705,771 Made some edits to the chart this week, looks like stronger weekends than I previously expected, but also slightly weaker weekdays, still looking at a range of 665-685m final, although that could potentially change that if the next 2 weeks hold as well as this one

1/20 20,133,106 598,409,459 -38.66% 1/24 6,100,000 604,509,459 -55.31% 1/27 15,200,000 619,709,459 -24.50% 1/31 4,500,000 624,209,459 -26.23% 2/03 11,400,000 635,609,459 -25.00% 2/07 3,200,000 638,809,459 -28.89% 2/10 8,000,000 646,809,459 -29.82% Titanic Rerelease 2/14 2,500,000 649,309,459 -21.88% Valentine's Day 2/17 5,500,000 654,809,459 -31.25% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd 2/21 2,325,000 657,134,459 -7.00% President's Day 2/24 3,500,000 660,634,459 -36.36% TGM crosses here (662.4) 2/28 1,200,000 661,834,459 -48.39% TOTAL 18,700,000 680,534,459 Assumes constant 25% holds from here on out Bringing back the drop prediction chart just to say that expecting it to stay anywhere close to 40% ahead of NWH for the rest of its run is pretty naive given that it has sub-20% holds from here on out. Even mid 20s drops for the rest of its run + less of an impact from Ant-Man and Titanic than expected (which in itself is quite optimistic) still only gets you to 680m

On one hand, next Monday should be o/u 620m, but on the other hand 700m is virtually not happening at this point

See? No one can call me a hater now

misread your message, disregard what I just said

nvm lol

I predict that the Box office will recover to pre-COVID grosses, but that admissions will be permanently affected. In other words, we'll be back to 11B by next year and going forwards, but that 11B isn't gonna be nearly as much admissions wise as it used to be pre-COVID

9 or 10B this year?

19.65 is slightly below my target of 20.5m for the weekend, but I think there's a slim chance that it can round up 20m with revised Sunday numbers. In any case, my projections remain the same. The trend indicates A2 to have mid 20s-30% drops for the next few weeks leading up to Ant-Man OW, which will take a large chunk out of it's legs (For those of you doubting, even TGM took a 40% drop in the face of Thor 4). Looking at 665-680m final

I'm pretty sure it's still Top Gun lol

Yeah 19-20m seems more reasonable to me

that would track 4.65>9.3>7, which seems a bit high for Sunday don't you think?

My overly specific timeline has not changed since last week: 1/20 20,500,000 598,776,353 -37.55% 1/24 7,100,000 605,876,353 -47.99% 1/27 15,200,000 621,076,353 -25.85% 1/31 5,200,000 626,276,353 -26.76% 2/03 11,400,000 637,676,353 -25.00% 2/07 4,000,000 641,676,353 -23.08% 2/10 8,000,000 649,676,353 -29.82% Titanic Rerelease 2/14 3,000,000 652,676,353 -25.00% Valentine's Day 2/17 4,500,000 657,176,353 -43.75% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd 2/21 2,325,000 659,501,353 -22.50% President's Day 2/24 2,500,000 662,001,353 -44.44% TGM crosses here (662.4) 2/28 940,000 662,941,353 -59.57% TOTAL 14,000,000* 676,941,353 14m figure is extrapolated from summation of 25% drops going forwards rounded to the nearest million Keep in mind ~25% drops from now until Ant-Man OW is already a pretty optimistic baseline given its current trend of ~30%. Unless this starts mirroring NWH and TGM with sub-20% drops I believe 700m is out of the question.

I've been lurking since 2019 lmao, only decided to bite the bullet this year 👀

wording suggests that it's a limited run, so yeah, it's not keeping it's place