Cheddar Please

probably, Titanic seems to be a very limited rerelease anyways

looking like it will barely miss it. My current projections (which estimate 20-30% drops for the next few weeks), lands A2 at about 642m going into Valentine's day weekend

Some sloppy penciling here (I decided to go optimistic b/c why not): 12/16 134,100,226 134,100,226 Holidays 12/20 63,581,460 197,681,686 12/23 63,338,220 261,019,906 -52.77% 12/27 97,098,008 358,117,914 52.71% 12/30 67,409,155 425,527,069 6.43% 1/03 46,262,310 471,789,379 -52.36% 1/06 45,838,986 517,628,365 -32.00% 1/10 14,172,983 531,801,348 -69.36% 1/13 32,250,000 564,051,348 -29.65% MLK Day Wknd 1/17 16,450,000 580,501,348 16.07% MLK Day 1/20 20,500,000 601,001,348 -36.43% 1/24 7,100,000 608,101,348 -56.84% 1/27 15,200,000 623,301,348 -25.85% 1/31 5,200,000 628,501,348 -26.76% 2/03 10,400,000 638,901,348 -31.58% 2/07 4,000,000 642,901,348 -23.08% 2/10 8,050,000 650,951,348 -22.60% 2/14 2,700,000 653,651,348 -32.50% 2/17 4,900,000 658,551,348 -39.13% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd 2/21 2,325,000 660,876,348 -13.89% President's Day 2/24 2,800,000 663,676,348 -42.86% 2/28 940,000 664,616,348 -59.57% TGM crosses here (666) TOTAL 14000000 678,616,348 Final range heading towards 640-690m

if A2 performed like this everyday 800m wouldn't even be a question Edit: I will gladly eat my words for everytime I ever doubted Avatar would pull through on Saturday lol (still don't think this changes the overall outlook though)

the fact is that even AOU would've made 600m in this day and age, and if event films can't even top that, in an era where the box office is basically only being propped up by blockbusters, then what future does this industry even have In any case, I will wait until later in the year before coming to any final conclusions

Objectively nothing but at some point you just got to put down a spicy prediction to make things interesting

All I can say is if no movie this year makes over 600m DOM or 1.4B WW with all the inflation that has happened in the past 3 years than the box office is truly beyond saving

I expect at least one movie this year to break out at least on the level of TGM, both DOM and WW. People always underestimate the top of the Box office to deliver the goods at least one a year

The point is that these are all impossible theoreticals. There's no way of telling how well it would have done in a non-COVID environment, we had similar discussions during NWH's run and that went nowhere. The only thing I can say is that this movie is already doing extremely well right now, and if a ~670m/2.2b run is somehow disappointing, that points more towards expectations than the outcome

if anything, you could argue COVID was a large contributor to the current inflation regime. Assuming inflation remained at pre-COVID levels through 2023, there is a possibility A2 would have made less than it currently has

based on its trajectory atm, I would gamble that will have made most of its money by then to make much of a difference

There has been a lot of revisionist takes on NWH's box office performance (and reception) in these last few months, but all I can say, as someone who was actively tracking this films run, is that its run was quite exceptional given the circumstances - Released in the middle of the biggest COVID surge since the initial lockdown that took out Canada and several European countries, and had a considerable effect on its early legs (I maintain that the 67% drop in its 2nd wknd was partially COVID inflicted) - 3x seems mediocre for a Dec release, but for an event finale that was bound to be frontloaded, its comps should really be compared to something like Endgame (2.4x), or DH2 (2.3x) and when framing it that way, it's clear that it's 3.1x multi was still above the norm, especially when looking at its later trajectory.

I find it highly unlikely that Friday actuals would rise another half a million, given last night was pointing towards 6.8-7.2m. 13m Saturday seems reasonable enough, if slightly optimistic given last weekend's numbers, but 14 seems like a stretch at this point. I'd say so far signs are pointing to 37-38m 4-day

In that case what is the math on your end?

My question is whether A2 will ever catch Titanic anytime in its run

No it doesn't, literally the only thing they've done is disagree with your predictions based on their own calculations, which is perfectly reasonable as this is a box office forum. Maybe you shouldn't throw accusations at people just because they say something that you personally construe as an insult

Or maybe not every opinion on this forum has to be anti-avatar or pro-avatar. Have you ever considered that there are perspectives that don't fit into your black and white dichotomy?

Why do you think I came here? This place reminds me of r/boxoffice in its heyday during the late 2010s, but I would've never discovered it without the constant early number posts lol

I will say, as much as people here love to shit on r/boxoffice, the pipeline is real. On one hand I like that the attention we get there helps to keep our userbase healthy through converts, but on the other hand, given the quality of discussion there, I'm also glad that we have such a eclectic community here as to keep the faint of heart out lol - A r/boxoffice convert

idk man 739m seems pretty arbitrary to me lol

what could those be?

It's both. Wakanda Forever had basically no competition, yet that only did so much to help its mediocre legs

Someone pin this please, this is what I've been trying to get at this entire time lol

I feel like one can be happy about both films doing well at the box office lol, it's just good for the industry (and our entertainment)