Relevation

Oh and for the shows A+ X-Men ‘97 A Loki (season 2) WandaVision B What If…? (seasons 1 and 2) The Falcon and the Winter Soldier Ms. Marvel Hawkeye C Moon Knight Loki (season 1) D She-Hulk: Attorney at Law F Secret Invasion (quit after one episode) DID NOT WATCH Echo I Am Groot

A+ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (best MCU movie) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 A Spider-Man: No Way Home B Deadpool & Wolverine Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Thor: Love & Thunder C Eternals Black Widow The Marvels D none F Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

After Twisters, IO2, Bad Boys, A Quiet Place, DM4, Longlegs, and DP&W, I’m just gonna assume explosive growth from early sales and very strong walkups is the default result for movies now rather than the exception for a lucky few hits In which case Trap is opening to $30M, It Ends With Us is breaking $45M, Alien: Romulus is gonna clear $50M, and maybe there’s some hope for Borderlands

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 07/25/24 Deadpool & Wolverine - 1413 tickets sold COMPS Deadpool & Wolverine 3.88x of Dune: Part Two ($38.81M) 11.78x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($41.21M) AVERAGE: $40.01M Pro tip for doing Fandango manual megatracks: create big boxes of seats and count using multiplication for sold out showings, that strategy made this track far more painless than it very easily could've been. Anyways, obviously extremely strong showing by Deadpool in my market, nearly double the record for my market of DM4, which was an OD track. Dune and Furiosa clearly aren't the best comps, but the only kinda Marvel comp I have is Madame Web, which comped north of $50M and is an OD number lol. Plus, the average I got looks pretty believable? With how this is pacing in other markets, I think $40M previews is very achievable here and it tracks with the data I have here. Personal prediction is $40M THU and a $205-215M OW. Let's hope that's the biggest track for a while.

So it did just end up playing like GxK and Bad Boys, fair enough

This is why I try to be really selective with the comps I put together, focusing less on genre and more on how I think the last day walkups will pan out or what the demos of the movie are. My goal in the end is to have a correct average, hence I want to put in comps that together yield an average that makes sense. Like as an example with Twisters, I tried to balance out my average by putting in lower walkup and whiter comps like Furiosa and Civil War, combined with more Latino heavy big walkup finishers like GxK and Bad Boys, since I thought Twisters would finish somewhere in between those two outcomes and I wanted a comp average that reflected that. I didn’t put in comps like A Quiet Place and Apes because I knew they would massively inflate the average given how much they underindexed (they were spitting out $10.9M in comps), and I didn’t put in super low skewing comps like Dune because I knew they would deflate the average too much. For me, putting together an accurate average is as much an overall read of your market data as it is just a prediction for how you think the movie will do, hence I try to be selective with the comps I use, in order to get a balance that looks about right. (now of course this is easier for me because I only track T-1 so I know how the movie I’m tracking had played out in pace for the last few weeks, so getting an accurate balance is harder in the initial stages of presales)

All Hollywood is gonna take from Twisters is that legacy sequels to old movies can do good numbers as long as you have those “old-school vibes”, it’s not gonna ignite this push to take more risks on ambitious projects nor is it this paragon of originality and freshness in the industry Which is fine btw, everything I said there is also true about Top Gun: Maverick and that was still a very good movie

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 07/18/24 Twisters - 157 tickets sold COMPS Twisters 0.84x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.40M) 1.25x of Civil War ($3.61M) 1.29x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($6.04M) 1.29x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($7.56M) 1.31x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.58M) 1.96x of The Fall Guy ($4.61M) AVERAGE: $5.74M To walkup or not to walkup tis the question on this Twisters preview eve. But nah seriously, Twisters did do pretty solid in my market and exceeded my earlier conservative expectations. Last week of pace in other markets is pretty exceptional, and it does appear to somewhat be bucking the trend of more white skewing movies struggling to finish strong. I do find it interesting that the more white skewing movies like Civil War, Furiosa, and The Fall Guy are spitting out weaker comps in the $3.5-4.5M range, while more Latino heavy walkup giants like GxK and Bad Boys have extremely strong comps in the $7.5-8.5M range. Which path it goes down tomorrow could make all the difference, or it could play more like Ghostbusters in the middle with just average decent walkups. I lean towards that outcome. Predicting $5.5-6.0M THU and a $52-57M OW.

If Deadpool misses $30M previews like the data in Sacto and Orlando is potentially suggesting, then I think it could open under IO2 in the $140-150M range

I think this is headed for a $1.70B final by the looks of it $675M DOM with slightly better post-5th weekend holds than Incredibles 2 (if it had the exact same holds from 5th weekend on as I2 it finals at $665M but I think it does better because no family competition for rest of the summer) That plus around $1.025B OS and you’re looking at $1.70B WW and the 8th biggest release in history

Gonna instill a healthy dose of pessimism in the thread and say I don’t think this is good enough for much more than $40M, let alone $50M. Nope did $6.4M in just THU previews in this same frame two years ago and was only able to turn that into a $44M opening, while Twisters is here doing ~$6M across both EA and THU, which should conventionally mean Twisters has a more frontloaded preview+EA:weekend IM than Nope did. Nope had a 6.875x IM, so let’s say Twisters skews just a bit lower (since it doesn’t have quite the same Peele level fanbase) with 6.6-6.7x across both EA and THU combined. That would yield right around a $39.6-40.2M OW. I don’t see it getting much higher than the 7.68x IM that A Quiet Place: Day One notched, because that was only a pure THU to weekend IM, and that would imply a high end scenario off $6M previews of ~$46M. And I also don’t think it’s a sure thing that it grows to the level needed for $6M previews either. Like, if it’s doing around 60% of what Apes did for FRI, that leaves significant room for a walkup underperformance compared to Apes (which had really great walkups) that would absolutely doom it to probably like a mid-high-30s OW. And since the demos on this are gonna be predominantly white, I think the possibility of that happening should not be discounted. I think a $50Mish OW could very much still happen if walkups do come through, but I definitely don’t think that’s a sure thing and I personally lean much more to predicting an OW around like $40M.

I think the trailer looks aggressively fine and largely competent, but BO wise I think this has a similar problem to the Marvels in which absolutely nothing here is a real draw to anyone outside the most hardcore Marvel fans, and the movie isn’t doing anything else to draw other audiences in Like sorry but who seriously cares that much about Sam Wilson, Thaddeus Ross, Red Hulk, or whoever the hell Giancarlo Esposito is playing, plus the trailer feels super Marvel-y in a way where if you’re not a fan of Marvel I can’t see why you’d ever watch this Honestly I think this is gonna bomb spectacularly, probably the biggest nominal loser of all time and Marvels numbers or worse $40-50M OW / $85-110M DOM / $165-200M WW

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 07/11/24 Longlegs - 215 tickets sold Fly Me to the Moon - 22 tickets sold COMPS: Longlegs 1.71x of Civil War ($4.95M) 1.89x of Maxxxine ($6.01M) 5.81x of In A Violent Nature ($2.38M) 16.54x of Immaculate ($9.10M) AVERAGE: $5.61M Fly Me to the Moon 0.15x of Mean Girls ($474K) 0.18x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($848K) 0.28x of The Fall Guy ($646K) 0.42x of Challengers ($677K) AVERAGE: $661K THE LEGS HAVE NEVER BEEN LONGER HOLY SHIT Longlegs did absolutely phenomenal at my theaters, it sold considerably more than GODZILLA X KONG and is the third best seller for THU at my market ever! (only behind Dune 2 and IO2). Even against a collection of noted overindexing comps at my market, it still put up an INSANELY good $5.6M THU average (comps like AQP and Tarot were pushing $13M+ lmao). Obviously my market is scorching hot for this and I don't expect a $40M+ OW like that average would suggest, but this is easily on track to be the biggest original horror breakout since M3GAN or even earlier. $3.6-4M THU and a $27-32M OW is where I think this is headed. As for the other new wide release this weekend, Fly Me to the Moon is decidedly more earth-bound. Very weak sub-$700K avg likely meaning pretty rough things even with the EA burnout. $650-750K THU and a $9-11M OW?

Man wtf this is so sad Horizon Chapter 1 was an actually great movie and the reel at the end got me so excited for Part 2

I think it could get to $180M+ yeah What does that have to do with Twisters tho

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 07/05/24 Maxxxine - 114 tickets sold COMPS: Maxxxine 0.70x of Madame Web ($4.26M) 0.90x of Civil War ($2.62M) 2.19x of Challengers ($3.51M) 3.08x of In A Violent Nature ($1.26M) 5.18x of Drive-Away Dolls ($2.33M) 5.43x of Abigail ($5.43M) 8.77x of Immaculate ($4.82M) AVERAGE: $3.46M Day-old data so I'm not sure how useful this is anymore, but in any sense I figure Maxxxine did pretty well here. Triple digit sales count is the first for a horror film in my market, and it landed at around $3.5M FRI against the laundry list of comps I have here. Gonna wager something like $3.5-4M FRI and a $9-10.5M OW on this.

But the floor is not 50 Like it would need to be doing $7M+ previews to hit $50M+ and no market is pointing to that right now Personally I think it lands around $5-6M THU + EA which is what the decently walkup heavy action movie comps are pointing to rn (which is also not the floor because Twisters could have weaker walkups due to possible white skew), and that would probably mean like a $35-42M OW. Floor is probably closer to like $25-28M if it falls sub-4 for previews, ceiling optimistic scenario I feel is $8M previews and a $56-64M OW.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 07/03/24 Despicable Me 4 - 717 tickets sold Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot - 55 tickets sold COMPS: Despicable Me 4 2.10x of Bob Marley: One Love ($29.44M) 2.37x of Inside Out 2 ($30.86M) 6.83x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($25.95M) AVERAGE: $28.75M Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot 1.53x of Cabrini ($764K) 4.58x of The Book of Clarence ($1.31M) AVERAGE: $1.04M Despicable Me 4 went, for lack of a better term, absolutely bananas at my market. Far and away the biggest movie I've ever tracked, selling 42% more tickets than every other kids movie I've tracked combined. Comps I have are pointing to an OD well in excess of $28M+, and I think it could be going even higher. $30M+ OD and a 5-day opening frame of $135-145M. Abject terror when I realized that Sound of Hope was doing WED previews, as my midnight preview track went well after hours. Movie appears to have done fine, probably eyeing like $1M WED (if Angel Studios even reports it lol) and a 5-day of what, $15M? (ps: anyone notice the cute Minion seat blockers on all Fandango showings of DM4?)

What I don’t understand is why the $30-40M OW range for Twisters has completely left the realm of consideration for trackers when that is what a $4-5M preview total (i:e what most comps are pointing to rn) would end up yielding. Like, $50-60M should be the optimistic scenario here where it has super strong walkups and great reviews, let alone the baseline. On the flipside if it has a bad finish, then you’re very possibly looking at Furiosa numbers here. $70-80M would literally require this to play like a kids movie and have IO2 tier walkups.

IO2 and AQP will both do around $63-64M I think

Imo The Fall Guy is probably the closest comp analog here given it’s a white skewing, GA action blockbuster that had a super long sales window without the kind of explosive Latino-boosted late walkups of an Apes or a GxK. In which case, while it’s good that Twisters is growing, $4.5M THU+EA would be pretty bad actually. This is the middle of summer for a PG-13 action movie, it is not registering close to a 10x IM and will probably land closer to Nope at 6.875x and Oppenheimer at 7.85x in this same frame during 2022 and 2023. Maybe it does a little better and closer to the 8.38x of Indy 5 without the major cinephile rush, but the presence of EA will pull that down a fair bit. So if we set a moderate 7-8x baseline range, theeeeeen Twisters would be eyeing around $32-36.5M for the weekend. Yikes. Now yes if it overperforms to the $6.92M that Apes is comping to, then it’s looking at a better $48-55M, but I don’t see any way this gets to the $70M+ BOP projections without over-performing all the way to $10M+ THU and Oppenheimer levels, which is not being indicated anywhere.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 06/27/24 A Quiet Place: Day One - 98 tickets sold Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter One - 27 tickets sold Kinds of Kindness - 16 tickets sold Blue Lock: The Movie - Episode Nagi - 9 tickets sold COMPS A Quiet Place: Day One 0.52x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($5.24M) 0.80x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($4.72M) 1.36x of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.81M) 2.72x of The Strangers: Chapter 1 ($3.27M) 4.67x of Abigail ($4.67M) AVERAGE: $4.94M Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter One 0.07x of Dune: Part Two ($686K) 0.21x of Civil War ($621K) 0.23x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($788K) 0.52x of Argylle ($883K) 0.71x of The Bikeriders ($1.03M) 1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K) AVERAGE: $821K Kinds of Kindness 0.13x of Civil War ($368K) 0.31x of Challengers ($492K) 0.73x of Drive-Away Dolls ($327K) 1.33x of The Book of Clarence ($380K) AVERAGE: $392K Blue Lock: The Movie - Episode Nagi 0.07x of Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle ($54K) 0.09x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($169K) 0.12x of Spy x Family Code: White ($83K) AVERAGE: $102K Small movie weekends are certainly quite interesting for gathering data, but man is tracking 3 sub-$1M movies and coming up with comp sets for each a tedious task. Anyways for the movies themselves, A Quiet Place has finally broken the horror under index curse at my theaters in full force, posting a solid $5M average against the mix of GA action and horror comps I chose. Based on my theaters consistently underselling horror, I'm gonna shoot higher in my prediction with $5.5-6M THU and a $47-51M OW. Horizon tanked pretty hard here which is surprising given the demos of the upper midwest, but it was getting shoved onto the tiniest screens with barely any showings. Bikeriders was the only comp pointing north of a million (and that was using the EA boosted figure), and recent male adult skewing prestige summer IMs like Bikeriders and Elvis make me think Horizon is headed to an ugly number on Sunday morning. $850-950K THU and a $6-8.5M OW. Not even sure if Kinds of Kindness reports preview numbers, but hey it did something at least. Clearly not a Poor Things level breakout but also not a non-entity. Probably eyeing something like $400K THU (if it's reported) and a $2.5-3.5M OW. Blue Lock did basically nothing here despite anime way over indexing in my market, barely eeking past $100K in comps. Anime summer IMs are completely dead and I expect no different with this, $100K THU and a $250-300K OW.

Oh I’m just realizing now it’s Independence Day whoops 4 threw me off

ID4?