BOfficeStats

Is there any evidence of an "incel wave" and that it is affecting the box office?

At this point it might have been a better decision for Marvel to have kept the release date at July 28 and dumped it with limited marketing. They could have easily blamed Barbenheimer and the strikes to save face and they would have saved some money.

Is that correct? A 92% drop from last weekend ($43.6M) is crazy.

This theory doesn't make any sense. MCU films didn't have an uber young audience back in 2012 when The Avengers came out and made a ton of money (50%/50% split over/under 25 years old). Even Spider-Man: Homecoming only skewed 57% under 25 years old. The problem with the MCU right now is that *all demographics* are losing interest.

Unless you have knowledge of the terms of a potential streaming deal, it is definitely possible that a theatrical-first release is still a better decision.

I don't see any IMAX showings anywhere and only a couple PLF showtimes.

The Raimi Spider-Man movies were way bigger than the 2014-2018 Fox X-Men and Deadpool movies when you adjust for inflation, exchange rates, and market growth. When you combine that with the 14.5 year gap between Spider-man 3 and NWH, the success of Far From Home, Garfield + Venom crossover hype, along with the PG/PG-13 rating for all Spider-Man films, it makes sense why NWH would get such a gigantic boost. NWH was a family-friendly movie that drew in anyone who liked *at least some of* the Spider-Man movies released between 2002-2021. Unless Deadpool 3 is shockingly great, it will draw in mostly the same audience for the first two Deadpool films + Logan.

Looks like the targets to beat are Indiana Jones 5 ($174.48M) and MI7 ($172.14M).

https://deadline.com/2023/10/bts-yet-to-come-streaming-release-date-prime-video-1235575372/ If it makes money and lets people experience it again, I don't see how it would devalue her brand. I'm sure it's a better experience in theaters than at home (for most people) but that's probably true for every concert film.

They might do that for truly "event" films but I don't think they would try that for a traditional movie. Theater owners will get very angry if studios refuse to allow their movies to be screened for 3+ days out of the week.

Good point. IDK what German people thought at the time, but I could imagine that Christoph Waltz's role in Tarantino's previous movie, Inglorious Bastards, as another German character also would have boosted the film. Star power seems to have been a lot bigger back then.

It depends on the theater. A standard showing in a theater where people are silent and don't move at all wouldn't be much different from a good theater setup. A PLF showing in a theater where people are singing and dancing is totally different.

The chances of TET being a theatrical exclusive seem extremely low. 1 Taylor Swift's 4 other concert films (Speak Now, 1989, Reputation, and Lover) were all released straight to video. It seems unlikely that she would suddenly decide to make a theatrical-exclusive movie now when it means she would miss out on tens of millions of dollars. 2 The Eras Tour concert videos and livestreams have tens millions, if not hundreds of millions of views. There's clearly a ton of demand for a home version of the concert. 3 Theatrical re-releases domestically typically make very little. Titanic probably sold ~130M tickets in its initial release but the 2023 re-release only made $15M. Even Avatar (2009)'s re-release in 2022 which had sequel hype + 3D + footage for The Way of Water only made $24.7M. 4 The Eras Tour film might be a good theatrical experience but it didn't benefit much from theater exclusive technology such as 3D and 4DX. By far the biggest impact of a theater viewing (compared to watching it at home) would be the audience reaction but there could still be a re-release once in a while for die hard fans who want to dance and sing along. This also brings me to point 5... 5 A home video release will be the only way the overwhelming majority of her fans will be able to see The Eras Tour concert film after it leaves theaters. If it wasn't for the small budget and high ATP, The Eras Tour would have bombed outside of a couple markets and it is looking like it won't get a Chinese release at all. Almost all theaters in almost all markets would decline to show a re-release because the demand just isn't there. The domestic market *might* get a wide re-release at some point, maybe UK/Australia/New Zealand too, but that will probably be it. 6 Refusing a home video release of any sort would make many fans upset and would lead to massive piracy of any decent versions of the film.

^ I also thought it would do better since The Revenant sold 2.83M tickets and Django Unchained sold 4.50M tickets. Maybe Germany isn't as interested in Western films as they used to be...

That seems extremely unlikely. Shin Godzilla only pulled in $1.54M over its opening 7-days. I can't imagine that Renaissance would open below $9M (~10% of The Eras Tour) considering the early presales (an estimated $6M on the first day), extremely high ATP, and IMAX screens.

I probably should have reworded that to say "By May 2016, audiences were still fresh off of the disappointment of recent PG-13 Sony, Fox, and WB superhero films and widely viewed the MCU as the only superhero franchise capable of consistently producing good superhero movies. This gave the franchise a halo effect and a shield against criticism ("at least its not a train wreck like [insert Fox/Sony/WB superhero film]").

I'm going with a $20M OW. I think walkups and presale growth will be a bit better than The Eras Tour but it will also be extremely early-presale heavy.

Was there any reason to believe that Renaissance would open even remotely close to The Eras Tour? The first day of Renaissance presales were around 1/6th of The Eras Tour, indicating far lower demand.

I think there are 3 big reasons why. 1. Expectations were not incredibly high until 2018. Before the MCU there weren't any previous blockbuster films based on MCU characters (excluding Spider-Man) and there were 0 crossovers with other universes. This helped keep expectations down since people didn't have much to compare it to besides DC films, Fox X-Men films, and Sony live-action Spider-Man films which were all struggling by 2014-2016. It seemed like the MCU just kept getting better and better while their competition kept disappointing. 2. The short gap between sequels and low amount of non-sequels made it easy to hype up each new release. Only a maximum of one non-sequel was released each year from 2012-2019. Every film but Iron Man 3 released between 2010-2015 got a sequel that released <3 years later. It was easy to convince people to watch each film since 2/3rds of them are about characters the audience is familiar with and liked since The Avengers (2012) and the other 1/3rd have a clear hook to draw people in. 3. Most of the big MCU blockbusters from 2008-2019 are at least as good, if not better than most of their PG-13 action-adventure blockbuster competition. For a while they were THE obvious safe choice for moviegoers who wanted likeable characters, a decent and not too serious story, and explosions all in one package.

My prediction is 20%-25% of The Eras Tour's OW.

The Eras Tour is more like the Avengers: Endgame of concert films. Even a total collapse wouldn't prevent it from becoming the biggest concert film WW (excluding This is It).

‘Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé’ Estimated First-Day Presales Around $6M-$7M – Box Office https://deadline.com/2023/10/beyonce-renaissance-concert-film-presales-box-office-1235562887/

I thought Avatar: TWoW's China and India ATP was surprisingly high but TS:TET's pricing is on another level. Argentina's tickets cost 5,800 Pesos which officially converts to $16.57 USD. https://m.cinesargentinos.com.ar/noticia/6894-confirmada-la-proyeccion-de-taylor-swift-en-los-cines-de-la-argentina/

Have presales for other screenings at those theaters started yet or is it just the IMAX screens that haven't started presales yet?

Are the presales at other theater chains besides the main 3 (AMC, Regal, Cinemark)?