MovieMan89

$1b could actually be a small possibility for Jumanji if it were able to hit something like 50m in Japan (860 + 50 DOM + 50 Japan + 40 other OS). Though I'm not sure how much it would appeal to that market.

50 Shades is gonna get way too close for comfort to 100m for me. Hope it doesn't go much above 40.

Will be too crazy if it beats SM1 as Sony's highest grosser ever. Imagine if this had gone down at a Sony meeting in 2002: CEO - "So everyone, Spider-man has broken box office records, how are we going to top this?" - "Surely we'll make a sequel and that will do it right?" room murmurs in agreement except for one guy who speaks out... - "Nah, that won't work. Hey I know! Let's make a sequel to Jumanji!"

Lol at this being way more effective than the real teaser: http://www.ign.com/videos/2018/02/08/venom-movie-teaser-2018-trailer-remade-from-1990s-cartoon

170-190 is my range. Shame it could get so close to 200 but probably still nearly impossible to make it. But with this movie who knows. Its Thu number is going to be nearly flat with last Thu, so if it stays flat this weekend and then has a very small drop for the holiday weekend next week, 200 might not be impossible after all.

We know all the Oscar noms did $48m out of the $110m, which includes TLJ. $28m from Jumanji would be absurdly high and leave only $34m from all the other non-Oscar movies. And again, I still don't see how it's remotely feasible for 2m subscribers to contribute to a number that large.

5-8% like most of those Oscar movies of Jumanji would be $21-28m. I fail to see how that would be possible with their current subscription base. Would mean everyone who has an MP went and saw it and a large chunk saw it multiple times. For the bigger grossing movies the percentage of total gross I'm sure is much smaller. I'd guess $2-6m is what it's adding to most of the wide releases. Further proving the point, that second report says MP has bought $110m worth of tickets since August of last year. So 21-28% of that certainly isn't from Jumanji alone. I'd be shocked if any given movie has cracked $7m in MP gross. Maybe TLJ.

i doubt this would have much OS appeal no matter how it turns out tbh. There’s really nothing about it that’s some easy cash grab, which is another reason I’d have to believe this is at least decent and they think it can do well DOM for Sony to have gone through with it.

Gangster Squad wasn’t bad, just mediocre. Never saw 30 Minutes or Less. I don’t see this movie turning out bad, at worst I think it will be like this teaser and fail to leave an impression either way.

Hardy hasn’t taken many roles in crappy films. Same for Williams. Director has Zombieland to his credit and the writer has Saving Mr. Banks to hers, which are both good. Although she also has 50 Shades of Grey, but no one was going to be able to adapt that into anything worthwhile so I’ll give her a pass there.

I doubt it will leave a "bad" impression. It's going to leave no impression at all. I mean a lot of the people who see it won't even know what it's called. Good thing about that being they can obviously easily turn it around in the future if no impression has been made yet.

I'd be far more interested to know how much of the gross it has been for stuff like Jumanji or Showman. $3.7m is the most it's added to any of those movies they did the breakdown for. And again, that's not all money that wouldn't have been there without MP's existence. Case and point: I've seen Lady Bird and 3B since I got my MP, but would have seen them with or without it.

I think you mean Netflix Original: V. And this is actually Cloverfield 7 btw, don't let the studio fool you.

Yeah it's just a waste of marketing really. They have plenty of time still, but it's not a promising start that they felt the need to put out something like this that does nothing for either fans or casuals.

I always assumed Carnage was a given since the movie needs some kind of villain to Venom's anti-hero protagonist here.

Glad I'm not the only one baffled by that last bit. I mean it's fine for people seeing the trailer at an AMC, since they always do their own title card after the trailer, but otherwise there are plenty of casuals that are going to have zero clue as to what this even is.

This will definitely be a movie that will tank on OW with a less is more marketing approach. But hopefully they hit hard in the summer. Still optimistic it will be a good movie.

Dial V for Venom.

Haven't seen The Drop, so I guess that's why it sounds like a new one to me.

Furthermore, the character is pretty unknown to the casual audience. This is going to leave no impression on them, especially when it can't even be bothered to tell them what the title of the film is lol. Or some of the GA will think it's actually some movie called "V" when it plays in theaters.

Actually, I think that trailer is going to be entirely ineffective marketing for the GA. It's completely nondescript in showing much of anything and then they don't even put the title at the end. Success hasn't changed them, Sony still being Sony.

Eh, can't really tell much either way for that. Looks fine I guess? Lol @ Hardy legit having a new voice for every film though. Just putting "V" at the end for the title card was stupid if that's how it's showing in theaters, the casual GA aren't even close to being that familiar with the character to know what the hell that's supposed to stand for.

The Fallout trailer and reception seems too good for me to believe MI6 will miss 200. RN's marketing was never on the same level. Sure it could end up being a lackluster movie and not have good WOM, but that seems far more unlikely than likely at this point. Beasts will need to take a pretty nasty 20%+ admissions drop to miss 200. The first posted a very underwhelming OW and instead relied on good legs to achieve a modest total for the franchise. Indicating that there wasn't much curiosity at all and it was a WOM hit. There should be room for growth, or at the worst a soft drop off. The Grinch is locked for 200, I see no way around that. There's zero precedent for an Illumination animated film to go under 200m, and in fact if you adjust for inflation there's not even a precedent for one of them to go under 250m. Every Illumination release is a potential 250+ grosser until proven otherwise. That's before even factoring in that The Grinch is an enduring holiday classic with a beloved book, beloved animated special, and the 2000 live action film (which adjusts to over 440m). WDAS also has a box office precedent this decade, Ralph may be at the bottom but it still clears 200 with ease adjusted. And it was pre Frozen, everything post Frozen by them has done 220+ unadjusted. As long as the movie is well received, a gross between 190-220 is likely. So maybe it will barely miss 200, but it has just as good of a shot at going over. I never made a case for Spider-Verse crossing 200, doubt it would.

You realize you left off Incredibles 2 right? Surely you can't actually be predicting sub 200? MI6 should hit 200 unless it's underwhelming And the odds of Grinch, Ralph, and Fantastic Beasts all missing 200 are probably next to zero. At least one will make it, likely all 3. 2016 also proved the holiday season can handle multiple big animated grossers, we had one hit 150+, one hit 250+, and one hit 270+. That will probably be similar to how Ralph, Grinch, and Spider-Verse do. I don't see any possible way the 200th is delayed until 2019.

Why are several of you guys ignoring that we already have 190 200m grossers?