MovieMan89

Possible, but I don't think a first sequel to a big animated hit has ever not increased on OW.

I see Solo doing in the 90's for OW because of the 4 day weekend, and I'd say Incredibles probably has about a 25% chance to miss too, since 100+ openings for animation are still such a high benchmark. It doesn't seem like anything this year after JW is going to do it, aside from maybe The Nun being the next It in September or Sony getting their shit together with the Venom marketing and that getting great reception. Illumination could work their marketing magic with The Grinch, however I think that movie's gross will be far too spread over the holiday season for a 100+ OW. My guess: 51. Infinity War 52. Deadpool 2 53. The Incredibles 2 54. Jurassic World 2 55. Silver and Black (taking a gamble here after BP) 56. Captain Marvel 57. Shazam 58. Avengers 4 59. Aladdin 60. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Will be nice to see two of the worst MCU releases (AoU and IM3) finally get knocked out of the #2 and #3 spots in the franchise.

They'd be smart to get the jump on marketing this asap. Gonna need all the time it can get to build awareness/interest and distinguish itself. Also, how the heck is the 2016 Disney film "a lot closer to the book?" It's practically the exact same movie as the animated one, which certainly isn't super faithful to the book.

11 years too late? Lol, try more like 20. Sonic hasn't had a real pop culture presence since the late 90's.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/gnome_alone_2018 Where in the 7th hell did this come from???

$33m would be insane for today. Can't see that happening, and if it does Avatar is in trouble. I was thinking mid 20's would be incredible if it could manage.

Not doing "bizarre gymnastics" at all to get those numbers. I explained exactly what I did: a 10% better Tuesday drop then Deadpool, and then I did pretty much follow its Wed-Sun holds. Here ya go if you don't believe me: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=deadpool2016.htm

Massive fail at this not being an animated film like the Mario one being made. Already confirms it as a disaster that will probably give us cringe-tastic stuff like this:

Giving it a Tuesday hold about 10% better than Deadpool's, and then roughly following Deadpool's holds through Sunday would make the second weekend record possible: Tue: 27m (-32%) Wed: 21 (-23%) Thu: 20 (-5%) Friday: 43 (+115%) Sat: 64 (+52%) Sun: 42 (-34%) Weekend: 149m

Yeah, I know TS3 was before C2, just pointing out that they weren't invincible and could put out whatever they wanted without failing like it seemed by the time TS3 came out. They really shot themselves in the foot by making a movie there was specific outcry against in the fanbase, and then not even delivering something that could measure up to the already weak link original. In some ways you could argue they've never really recovered since then. They can't just sell a film on their brand name ever since C2 happened, and now even something that is top tier Pixar like Coco can end up one of their least attended films ever.

And then they made a movie called Cars 2...

Aladdin probably stands next to no chance of beating WW2. Doubt Frozen 2 or TS4 can beat it either. TLK is 50/50. TA4 and SW9 should beat it.

Some of the crazy family summer 2019 competition could certainly stand to move to the holiday. Seems everything is afraid of Frozen 2, which I'd honestly be shocked if increased from the first.

Nothing in me can wrap my mind around a Pikachu that resembles Reynolds and sounds like him. How in the actual fuck is that going to be marketable?

I still don't understand wtf is going on there now that its been announced Reynolds is mo-capping Pikachu.

Dumbo would probably do 300 if it got Jungle Book level reception. Otherwise I'd say more like $250m. It has a far better release spot than Aladdin, which has an absolutely brutal set of direct competitors to face as far as its legs go. Actually something has to give as far as May/June 2019's family slate is concerned. Look at this mess: May 10th: Detective Pikachu Ugly Dolls May 24th: Aladdin Minecraft June 7th: The Secret Life of Pets 2 June 21st: Toy Story 4 That's way too much in the course of a little over a month. Granted one of those is a non entity (Ugly Dolls), but the rest are all gunning to be huge grossers.

Yeah sorry, skimmed the post and didn't realize you were talking so far down the road since we were discussing things that are scheduled in the next few years.

Ok, but for movies that aren't a decade or more away...

Don't forget Captain Marvel and Dumbo both have 300 potential as well, and I'd bet one of the two makes the yearly top 10. Then you have Homecoming 2 being pseudo Disney as well.

Detective Pikachu sounds like such a disaster. Then again, that didn't stop the horrendous live action 2002 Scooby Doo and 2007's Alvin and the Chipmunks from grossing $250m+ adjusted, so who knows.

Man, the non-Disney tentpole schedule through 2020 looks bleak in general, especially now that Fox is Disney too. Literally nothing seems very likely for 400 except JW2 and Wonder Woman 2. The Grinch and It 2 are the only other two that even have much 300 potential.

I'd say Wonder Woman 2 would have a chance at 200 if it were a summer release. I think early November makes that significantly harder though. That's basically it though as far as anything that's scheduled, barring something totally shocking like JW did.

IW has a way better shot at 700+ than SW9 does. SW9 had a nasty uphill battle to manage much of an increase over TLJ, especially if/when Solo underperforms and kills momentum even further.

Wow, amidst all the craziness of its DOM performance, I totally didn't even realize what BP had done OS this weekend. That's an insanely amazing start without China! If China breaks out, it may be able to even manage close to a 50/50 split. IW's OS is going to go apeshit. I'd say it has a real shot at beating F7 for third biggest OS haul ever.