jb007

TDKR vs TA reminds me of AOTC vs SM in 2002. Just like Spiderman in 2002, The Avengers set the bar too high and people started hoping that TDKR would over take that. That is the main reason that people are feeling disappointed. It would make me laugh that $310M in 2002 was considered a disappointment. The same way many people feel that a gross of around $450M is disappointing for TDKR. $450M is a fantastic gross and people should be happy about it. The Avengers was a phenomenon. Hard to duplicate that even if the movie we are talking about is a sequel to a phenomenon like TDK.

Batman has gained immense popularity after TDK in India. Spiderman has always been extremely popular in India for some strange reason. This year 3 SH movies (TA, TASM and TDKR) have done blockbuster business here.

There is no question that it is a wonderful result.. It will be at least 75% higher than TDK in India. My wife and I went to an Indian movie called Cocktail yesterday. It was so horrible that we walked out after 50 minutes. We thought we would try to get into the 9;15 PM showing of TDKR. But only the two front rows were available. So we went home.I lived in the US for 20 years. It was rare that I would see a sell out on a weekday even for movies like TPM in 1999.

Yesterday, 8;00 PM show in Ahmedabad (India) was full in a 353 seater. TDKR is doing extremely well at mutiplexes at big metros and below average at single screens and smaller cities.It should get a lifetime total of around $10 M in India, which is excellent for TDKR.

Roger MooreSean ConneryPierce BrosnanTimothy DaltonDaniel CraigGeorge Lazenby

Nobody can claim exactly how much the shooting impacted TDKR. But some movies do provide some direction as to the extent of the reduction.Let's compare some drops to TDK's OW in July 2008.Brave dropped 46% similar to Wall-E .Madagascar 3 dropped 63.2 % as compared to KFP's 57.8% at about the same point in their runs. A difference of 5.4%.TASM dropped 68% closer to Hellboy 2's 70 percent than Hancock 56%. Even if TASM were assumed to have the same drop as Hancock, the impact could be taken as 12%.The same way, Ice Age 4 to Journey in 2008, the impact can assessed as 14% and that seems to be the upper end of the impact based on my analysis of these numbers. The impact could be lower here since Journey was a better liked original movie versus Ice Age4 a not so well like third sequel (at least in the US)So the range on these movies varies from no impact in the case of Brave to 14%.Based on analysis of the numbers of these movies, I would say the shooting impact was no more than 10%.

TDKR second weekend will likely be +/-10% of this.

Not yet. But still 46% is a very good drop against a movie making $161M this weekend. I would say the impact of the tragedy was minimal in Brave's case.

Brave dropped 46% (Same as Wall-E against TDK).If people are claiming this huge 20 to 25% reduction in family attendance due to the tragedy, does it mean Brave would have dropped only about 20% against TDKR this weekend?

I completely agree.The problem is not the running time. It is how effectively the running time is utilized.

I love serious movies as much as the next guy. In fact 3 of the top 5 of my all-time best includes serious movies that are close to a running time of 3 hours long. But I want my SH movies to be entertain me rather than bore with unnecessary sequences that stretch the movie.

Then you misunderstood.The Avengers = Great popcorn fare that does not take itself seriouslyTDKR = Pretentious and long winding that takes itself way too seriously

TDKR takes itself too seriously and wants to project the director's version of a superhero movie that wants to be realistic. You cannot have it both ways.

Not really. The Avengers is exactly what it claims to be. It is a fun popcorn blockbuster that does not take itself seriously. It is not pretending to be some deep analysis of the psyche of a superhero nor it is pretending to provide commentary about the political and economic situation in the US.

Director Nolan intimated their location to him.

+1

In the TDK weekend 3 movies dropped in th 40s, all family movies, the rest dropped in the mid 50s and above. One Superhero (albeit lesser known one) dropped 70%.BTW, Brave will drope less than 50% just like Wall-E. Madagascar3 almost matches KFP's 58%.

The holdover drops do not look that different compared to TDK's release weekend.

1 N The Dark Knight WB $158,411,483 - 4,366 - $36,283 $158,411,483 $185 1 2 N Mamma Mia! Uni. $27,751,240 - 2,976 - $9,325 $27,751,240 $52 1 3 2 Hancock Sony $14,040,178 -56.2% 3,776 -189 $3,718 $191,543,979 $150 3 4 3 Journey to the Center of the Earth WB (NL) $12,340,435 -41.3% 2,830 +19 $4,361 $43,504,712 $60 2 5 1 Hellboy II: The Golden Army Uni. $10,117,815 -70.7% 3,212 +8 $3,150 $56,526,885 $85 2 6 4 WALL-E BV $10,070,396 -46.4% 3,310 -539 $3,042 $182,732,709 $180 4 7 N Space Chimps Fox $7,181,374 - 2,511 - $2,860 $7,181,374 $37 1 8 5 Wanted Uni. $5,072,805 -57.7% 2,433 -724 $2,085 $123,322,635 $75 4 9 6 Get Smart WB $4,125,021 -42.7% 2,135 -951 $1,932 $119,608,695 $80 5 10 8 Kung Fu Panda P/DW $1,860,854 -57.8% 1,505 -1,199 $1,236 $206,616,381 $130 7

I think the main reason is that it is not playing well beyond the premium multiplex cities due to its length and pacing. It had to appeal to the masses in second tier cities to show growth on Sat and Sun and it looks like it has failed to do so.

TDKR does not look like it will sustain in India given its weekend performance especially Saturday and Sunday not showing increases over Friday.

But not for a superhero movie that was being hyped as the second coming of Christ.They started issuing tickets for this one month in advance. and there all these reports of unprecedented sales for midnight. A lot of these tuned out to be overblown hype.

I completely agree. It is hard to quantify the impact of the shooting in terms of numbers. But again the same was true of Heath's death impact for TDK. TDK did benefit from that event and TDKR lost some due to the shooting.But the the other items mentioned by Baumer are just as valid. The underwhelming midnight gross proved it since that is one gross that was not affected by the shooting and that was not even close to record breaking territory.

It was not the shooting affecting the holdovers. A movie made $77.2M on Friday. One did not think that would affect holdovers?

Watch it bud. :PI used to do it also. I would also buy EW since it would list top 20 for the weekend.