peludo

If we make the all time OS-China list we can obtain extremely different results

Yes. For that reason I do not see the EU ratio increasing relative to first part. It can increase in gross in EU, but less than in Latin America or Asia, so the ratio will probably drop.

I do not see so clear that the European Union rate will increase in the sequel. Maybe you mean that the OS ratio will increase, what should be the logical step. It is true that WW is not a well-known character outside US, so the sequel should increase the OS weight. But let's remember that the explosion of MCU came after Avengers. The 5 precedent films grosses were not specially amazing. The first sequel of the Universe was Iron Man 2 and it still grossed more domestically than overseas. We still do not know if Justice League will imply a explosion of the DCU like Avengers did.

I think that is a wrong asumption. Episodes I and IV were enormous in Europe too. Both are in the same level of admissions sold than LOTR films in Spain, for example: FOTR 7.0 million admissions SW4 6.9m ROTK 6.8m TTT 6.4m SW1 6.2m Said this, Lumiere calculates separately European Union and the whole European continent numbers. With that division we have this: European Union FOTR: 58.4m HP1: 57.4m TFA: 54.8m Whole Europe FOTR: 61.3m HP1: 60.6m TFA: 63.2m FOTR and HP1 were bigger in European Union and just with other European countries inclusion, TFA wins. We could make a showdown country by country, but maybe (and just maybe) the expansion of certain big countries during last 15 years like Russia or Turkey which were not accounted in 2001 makes the difference. Russia does not appear for FOTR and the Russian data is ridiculous for HP1 (barely 9,000 admissions). And among big markets we have these: Force Awakens UK: 17.0m admissions Germany: 9.0m France: 10.5m Spain: 5.3m Star Wars UK: 20.7m Germany: 8.0m France: 8.0m Spain: 6.9m Phantom Menace: UK: 13.59m Germany: 8.0m France: 7.3m Spain: 6.2m FOTR: UK: 15.98m Germany: 11.8m France: 6.95m Spain: 7.0m HP1 UK: 17.56m Germany: 12.6m France: 9.5m Spain: 6.3m Among big markets (I do not have Italy data), I see a jump in France and Germany, but a drop in Spain relative to the first parts of previous trilogies. And TFA has improved in UK relative to TPM, but not relative to Star Wars. I do not see these numbers so surprising.

@POTUS means 175-180 million Yuan on Saturday according current presales. With a 72-73m dollars OW, the total seems headed to about $140m in China. Forget the billion. $900m is the target.

Google. Maybe the figure you say it is the yesterday confirmed data. ER is plummeting during last days. When I looked at it yesterday morning (Spain time) it was at 6.52

Extremely good ER (6.46) for Spider-man. When Wolf Warrior was released it was at 6.74. Dollar figures will be better than initially expected. With this ER, Wolf Warrior is at nearly $870m.

I can see 500s OS for this. Hulk and late Christmas legs should help. And ER are getting way better

And maybe higher than 1.5b... And we can compare Chinese market in 2001, 2012 and now... The absolute numbers comparison is extremely unreal and unfair, mainly with HP1 in this case.

Talking about ER, Yuan keeps strengthening relative to dollar (like other currencies). I do not remember when was the last time it dropped under 6.60 (6.59 right now). With today ER, WW2 is already at $830m, for example. With January-April ER it would still be around $790m.

Why after 1980 and not after 2005, when downloads were generalized? We are talking just about theater attendance. Obviously there is not a fair comparison, whatever the year of each film. To talk about which film is more popular is, IMO, close to impossible.

I do not think it is a so crazy figure. During 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s, the attendance to movies was way bigger than now, and not only in US, but in many countries. I do not have US numbers, but there are figures for United Kingdom, which is a similar market. Today, UK uses to sell about 150-170 million admissions per year. Between 1940 and 1956, UK was selling more than 1 billion admissions per year. The scenario will probably be the same in USA. https://www.cinemauk.org.uk/the-industry/facts-and-figures/uk-cinema-admissions-and-box-office/annual-admissions/ The first numbers we have for Spain say that in late 60s we were buying about 300-350 million admissions yearly (10 admissions per person and year) when now we suffer to reach 100 million (barely 2 admissions per person). In the same way, France was selling 300s-400s million admissions during those years (http://www.jpbox-office.com/hebdof.php), and Germany was able to sell 500s-800s million admissions during the 50s, after the WWII (http://www.insidekino.de/DBO.htm#JAHRES_&_ALL-TIME_CHARTS_) I do not know if that 202m figure is accurate, but I would not rule it out.

That is because Star Wars had already passed Christmas days and weekdays normalized. But WW2 is dropping heavily relative last week. It will not have enough gas to match SW7. Maybe $100m gap at the end. But I do not think to make 830-840 million is bad at all

Wow. I did not think about R1. Third Monday was January 2nd. I do not know if it was a holiday in US (it was in Spain). Then, and according presales for tomorrow, which are just a bit behind Monday, the record should be set tomorrow with 19 days.

First day under 100m Yuan, but still over $10m. And if I am not wrong, it is a record to have 18 days in a row making 10 million or more. Both SW7 and Avatar had 17 days.

I do not know if the sequel will be big and I can not know if the character is so deep in the US people memory like Mowgli, Simba or Belle, but Mary Poppins adjusts to $695m in USA... Do not underestimate it. The original movie has some of the most iconic scenes of Disney classics.

I know it is already anecdotical, but with 3.4b is already the biggest film ever in China. 11 days...

Sure, your argument is perfectly valid. It is just I would not use the word "lock"

Never say never with Star Wars in USA. Fisher's death is an unpredictable factor. Of course, to beat WW2 seems hard, even more if, as POTUS says, it can challenge the billion mark, but I would not bet too much money against SW.

Just to take into consideration those numbers is insane

I agree that SW8 has many factors to hold very well relative to SW7 (mainly Fisher's death). for the moment, I have it over $800m. But as @eXtacy says, Attack of the Clones dropped a lot. And probably the best film of the whole series, Empire Strikes Back, dropped over 30% relative to Star Wars too. It is really hard to keep the level of anticipation and hype that Star Wars, Phantom Menace and TFA have had. And if WW2 is able to manage, let's say, $750m I do not see impossible that it can win the year.

And over Beauty and the Beast. And what about over SW8 and be the biggest film a single territory in the whole year...

60 million Yuan, not dollars

First of all, congrats for your work. I do not make this kind of exercises because lack of time, but I have adjusted Minions with today ER (not inflation). It would have made today about $779m OS. DM3 has already outgrossed Minions in Argentina, Australia, China and India taking into account today ER. Brazil and Mexico are quite close.

My bad. I did not know that. Thank you for the info