peludo

Yes, the third part is planned to be released in 2019. Said this, and being huge, it is still lower than first part (€18.2m and 2.7m admissions)

It will not happen

Of course, my theory of 2-2.5b for each sequel asumes that China makes about 700-1b with each film (the first one did $200m in 2010 and it ranked #1 during 4 1/2 years, something that any other film has been able to do).

I am not a Cameron lover, but I do not see that budget so high. It means $250m by film. John Carter cost that amount... And if I remember well, the Hobbit trilogy was estimated to have cost about $800m. And it still was profitable. I do not think that these sequels will repeat the first film massive success everywhere. It will be big, but not that big. And unless the films are crap, with China making tons of money, I can see each sequel making 2-2.5 billion, way more than enough to get huge benefits.

In fact, exchange rates (at least for main markets) are better than in March 2016 (excepting British Pound)

Sure, Star Wars hit a bit MJ2 relative to MJ1 (I am talking about DOM). But MJ2 grossed nearly the same percentage of its final gross after the 5th weekend (when TFA was released) than Catching Fire, for example, even alhough MJ2 faced the biggest beast of all time. Talking about competition, Catching Fire faced Smaug and Frozen, but nothing can be compared to what TFA was. And let's remember that MJ2 survived to TFA having a mixed reception. And finally, BvS legs were absolutely disastrous. I insist that unless JL is even worse received, I can not see it having a worse multiplier than BvS with Christmas boost. I think that with even a worse opening, JL can, at least, match BvS. And WW reception should help. Just my opinion, of course

Christmas... I am not saying that JL can even beat BvS worldwide, but Christmas will give it better legs than BvS even if the film is worse received.

Please don't shut up. I did not try that During 2007 ER were better than now. But in 2007 Chinese market size was a joke comparing it with today's. And then you have to apply inflation+3D+other expanded markets. As you well say, WW admissions would be, IMO, a better indicator, but it is really hard to calculate. For that reason, and turning back to Chinese numbers, I prefer to compare Spidey's figures with recent similar films like Doctor Strange, Logan, GOTG2, Wonder Woman, and it is pretty on par to them.

Just to point that in 2007, ER were waaaaay better than now nearly everywhere. Applying the same ER, SMH wins over SM3 (not adjusted by inflation, though)

This is an endless debate. At the end, the best way to measure an amount in a foreign market is the local currency. I find a bit absurd (no offense) to discuss about some dollars if ER changes every day. You should look at the fact that SMH is in the same league than recent SH films: 600-800 million Yuan.

Well, with current ER (6.59), 717.6 m Yuan is in fact $108.8m... Both numbers are the same.

For reference, the first Tadeo Jones film grossed €18.2m in 2012 (2.76m admissions).

Contratiempo increases relative to Tuesday. @firedeep was right about it being a leggy film. Great to see that a Spanish film can make "big" things in China.

Fate of the Furious grossed some dollars too... Kong grossed $168m (BOM) And I guess you only mean Hollywood films, but among foreign films, Dangal (India) did $193m.

I referred to you as a boy too. I am sorry. I did not see who I was talking to. Said this, you would be surprised about what kind of names do have some people around the world...

Really? I did not know it was being released in China. It did not reach $4m in Spain. Nice surprise.

Fortunately, Apes can win somewhere. I think the trilogy is really good and I think it deserved a better box office ending. And this can be a good example that China can go massively to see very good films, since some people think that Chinese people only devour trash.

According Lumiere: Russia: 8.4 million admissions Germany: 6.9m UK: 6.6m France: 6.6m Spain: 4.2m Italy: 3.6m Poland: 1.7m Netherlands: 1.6m Belgium: 1.0m These markets add up 40.6 million. And there are some markets like Turkey, Czech Republic or Hungary with 700-900k admissions each. It fits.

The Dark World grossed 342m Yuan, a bit less than Man of Steel (394m) and less than half of Iron Man 3 (754m) if we talk about SH films in 2013. But this one has Hulk and Dr. Strange.... Maybe 600m (about 90m dollars) could be a good target for it. But there are people here who know the market way better than me. That is just my asumption.

If he means worldwide, he should not be worried about that. It is making close to $900m, over Wolf Warrior 2 right now (we still have to see if WW2 can make more relevant business outside China). If it ranks #4 or #5 after September, I do not see 6 or 7 films from now until the end of the year that can make it miss top 10 of the year. Just for reference, Suicide Squad ranked #10 in 2016 and did $745m, way behind than SMH.

If you mean top 10 in China of the year that is impossible. The 12th film of the year is already Despicable me 3 with 1.038b Yuan ($158m with current ER). If it makes more than 758m Yuan (Buddies in India gross), what seems likely according what I am reading here, it will rank #13. But we are still in September. From now until the end of the year it will probably drop several spots in the yearly ranking.

He posts (pretty accurate) estimations. The total day data are not complete in that moment. Some theaters are accounted during upcoming days (if I am not wrong). Same happens in US: official data are not published until next morning.

I have that list somewhere. I will post it if I find it

ROTK was on par to FOTR in terms of admissions (TTT is a bit behind). ER were REALLY horrendous in 2001. And FOTR was released the same year than HP1, making $100m less. LOTR was bigger in Europe for instance, but HP1 was bigger OS (mainly because Japan). But yes, probably the 3 films (HP1, FOTR and ROTK, in this order) would adjust over 1 billion OS without China boost. We are talking about enormous monsters.

This was one of the biggest OS runs ever. Probably bigger than recent TFA, Furious or JW, since it did not have 3D or China boost. To make $650m in 2001 is really astonishing. ER were way worse than now (Euro was weaker than Dollar, for example). Probably the only bigger OS films are both Cameron juggernauts and it is probably on par to Star Wars, E.T. and Jurassic Park (I can not measure Gone with the Wind or Snow White being so old films). I can not remember another one more impressive.