cory

4 & 5 seem like a done deal at this point, the math just doesn’t make sense to not make them when $1.5b per installment is the likely floor. Disney hasn’t even had a $1b movie in the Covid era until Way of Water.

I haven’t set foot outside since it dropped below 20F earlier today (currently 8, -11 with wind chill). Haven’t heard any cars go by in hours. It’s definitely affecting theaters.

I'd have to do the math but I would guess this is doing the exact same number of tickets as Avatar 1 would have sold opening weekend without the snowstorm on the east coast. The main obstacle since 13 years ago is that the MCU has trained audience's expectations for what an action sci-fi franchise script should be like.

I guess that’s why Sony was more likely to post a net profit because they couldn’t charge ads out to their own networks

$65m 4-day with ticket promos means it could be closer to $70m for WOM comparison purposes.

I don’t have access to my formula at the moment but there’s a chance they make less than $100M profit on this which just balances out Solo’s losses, nothing more.

Sub-AOTC adjusted domestic and WW (it won’t hit #4 WW for 2019). They should have taken another year to crack the story.

So the internal multiplier/WOM is bad because of TLJ?

Merchandising.

but doctor, I am TROS

what does it say about me that those are all my favorite tentpole flicks of the past 2 decades

Honestly, it didn't feel like it. Must have been a families-only thing because even Finding Dory felt bigger within my cultural bubble.

DP is around a $105M loss according to my calculations, slightly more than Solo. Possibly the 3rd X-Men movie to lose money after Last Stand and First Class (but those are within my formula's extremely wide margin of error so they could have made out even). Surprisingly, KOTM is reading positive on my end but within margin of error. I have Alita around -$40M.

Endgame is only around 58-60M right now.

No, it works in this case. 2015-2017 it felt like the MCU had a ceiling again and TA was an anomaly. Homecoming and Ragnarok breathed some life back with their team-up strategy but BP is when things blew up again. This fed directly into IW which had a shocking ending driving anticipation for Endgame.

So Endgame domestic will finish around TDK admissions, just ahead of TA1.

Yes this is easily the most impressive record it broke, it was thought to be nearly impossible.

20% 3D and $26.5M IMAX puts it around 32M tickets (assuming IMAX and 3D are separate) or almost 9% of the domestic population. The max was previously 6-7%.

A decade ago the Spidey/Pirates/Shrek summer was as big as a box office competition could get and now we have a movie outgrossing their entire runs before dinner time on Sunday.

Second fastest record doubling in modern times. Lost World-SM3: 10 years BR-HPSS: 9 years DH2-AEG: 8 years BF-SM1: 7 years

This is blowing past ROTJ’s PTA adjusted, which was one of those true all time records.

This thing could almost do 1.50x Infinity War OW. Previous biggest jump in the record was like 1.25x.

Infinity War being available on Netflix for months before Endgame's release has to be a factor, the saturation we're seeing feels impossible. It's like something out of the Twilight Zone because every single person I've talked to over the past few days is trying to see it this weekend. Usually with big movies I hear them say "oh yeah I want to see that," "I'll catch it later" but not "I'm checking showtimes for Saturday," "I'm going with my friends on Sunday," etc. TFA hype was more intense but not quite as widespread, Endgame feels like a tidal wave. Not sure what the attendance would be as my ticket formula is a few years out of date but it could hit 30M, I have TFA around 23-24M.

The showings near me aren’t even 5% full for today when I checked reserved seating. Not even IMAX. And I’m in what I would consider an area receptive to this kind of film and more likely to use an app for tickets.

Update: Looking at it closer the sequel effect is definitely real, so I think $220+ is in the cards. (Venom is 8x in between X-Men Apocalypse and Black Panther)