cory
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Everything posted by cory
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Just realized it’s my Venomversary! I joined BOM for SM3 and now we have an equally memerific Venom movie -
There's not a strong trend between IM and DOM multi. It's there, but not enough to predict Venom within smaller than a $50M range ($195M-$245M) from that factor alone.
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Looks solid
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BUMBLEBEE | 21 DECEMBER 2018 | The end of the Bayformers Universe
cory replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
I could see a 90M 5-day (17/20/20/12/25), but anything over 60 will be great with the budget and holiday legs. -
RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence
cory replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
Reminds me of the first Mission: Impossible more than anything. Not sure why. -
Well the original grosses were 307 and 209 for a 68.07% retention. Which is exactly where TLJ will end up. If you really want to get detailed Star Wars made about 220 before its first official reissue/reexpansion and ESB made about 181. Both around 14 months of release. That puts initial retention at about 82%.
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Sony getting their biggest non-Spidey hit in 2 decades from something that just kind of happened without any real zeitgeist pull is a very strange way to end the year.
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Jumanji had the highest gross for a second place movie on Christmas since AVATAR. You know what that means...
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26 is a great age. Not old at all. Very cool age!
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I have it being at around 535-540 on New Years Day vs 507 for JW at the same point in its run. Of course JW was headed into 4th of July and deep summer weekdays while TLJ will be heading into regular January weekdays. I don’t see $150M left in the tank from Jan 2 on like JW had, but it should pass $650M with ease.
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Well 2020 is the next Super Christmas, so the drops should play similarly to TFA's day business
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Wow, that’s a hell of a Friday. #2 Dom unadjusted looks in reach now.
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I’m actually agreeing with a lot of the points in these reviews but their score numbers are bitter and petty. It definitely can’t all be trolls.
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I could see how general audiences might not connect with this as well as critics but those scores are probably trolls.
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Whole lot of bracketed numbers on the sheets at WB on Monday. Damn. Haven't seen it yet but I'm shocked that the Wondy bump didn't keep the OW on par with BVS.
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Another sub-40% weekend drop for WW, and against its first direct competition no less.
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Mainly for Iron Man and Guardians 3.5x obviously there's no need.
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Friday openers over $100m (adj) with 3x legs since 2000: Wonder Woman (Summer) Rogue One (Holiday) Finding Dory (S) The Secret Life of Pets (S) The Jungle Book The Force Awakens (H) Jurassic World (S) Guardians of the Galaxy (S) The Avengers Toy Story 3 (S) The Dark Knight (S) Iron Man Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (S) The Incredibles Finding Nemo (S) Spider-Man Harry Potter 1 (H) Rush Hour 2 (S)
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Up 1.3m from estimates? Holy smokes Batman
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Elysium was far less reliant on China.
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My formula is production budget plus 10% compared to the estimated rentals broken up by the different rates for domestic/international/China. Approximates for the ratio of home video/television revenue streams and other costs to the theatrical details we get.
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Not the production budget. Total bottom line cost.
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I have this estimated as losing $30-40m, depending on Cruise's participations (which I'm sure are generous). It would have to do something like 100 DOM / 160 INTL / 90 CHINA to get out of the red (350 WW).
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Wow WW even exceeded the top end of my prediction. And now it has Fathers Day to soften its week 3 drop.
