spizzer

What?

Guys, real talk though, this has to be some sort of condition right? I mean its been like 10+ years now (was he part of the pre-BOM community, I wanna say from some SH forums?) and, well, that's a damn long time to just keep up a shtick. I know that he's had contact with members outside of the forums before, but has anyone ever met him? Is he quite alright?

Not even. It's purely delusion.

Holy shit this thread is amazing. This is what the Avatar thread was like on BOM. Except less bans.

Do tell.

So do we think today was affected by the weather as well? If that's the case and its been clearing tomorrow might legitimately increase.

This is a historic moment ladies and gentlemen.

Shocker there! "Wins" eh? Telling terminology. Well when you're dealing with statements like that I understand your sentiment. Because that's the best we can do! AND its better than simply using BOM's yearly prices/adjuster. That's the point. I'm not ignoring that we don't have any real information about discounted tickets, I've acknowledged it as a problem loads of times. But just because we can't solve for that issue doesn't mean we shouldn't try our best to do so for the ones we can adjust for. But we're already working with "guesses and estimates" when we use BOM's adjusted data. The whole point is to improve those guesses and estimates as much as we can given what information we've been provided. I don't understand the difficulty in grasping this - you're essentially saying that we should use less accurate guesses and estimates in favor of more accurate ones because the latter ones still don't account for everything. This just isn't true. There were absolutely people counting tickets when TDK was moving up the chart. I wasn't a super active poster on BOM at the time but even then I and others were quick to point out that that in recent years it was likely that Shrek 2 sold more tickets than TDK did, and that SM1 wasn't far behind (me and Red quite frequently have this discussion every few months when a new film is released and admissions talk is brought up again). Are there those who are just doing it out of a pro-TDK agenda? Certainly, but that should not diminish what those of us who are simply interested in gaining as deep a picture as possible are saying. Absolutely, I've argued the very same. But I am quite literally only interested in the volume, I'm not trying to make statements about what performance is superior. This isn't my implication at all, because that's a stupid notion. Take your Avatar example, I think there's a pretty clear argument to be made that a good portion of its draw was the 3D spectacle. People WANTED to pay more for the experience and that's something that's in its favor, its not a penalty. But you don't need to convince me of this, that's the point I'm trying to make. I am only looking at admissions in order to compare admissions - there's no underlying motive beyond that.

I doubt that's true. I just did a quick estimate for Gravity vs. Interstellar OWs and even with Gravity's 80% 3D share (59% standard, 21% IMAX) it comes out ever so slightly ahead of Interstellar for OW. We know it had better legs, and their IMAX screen retention should have been similar. It's highly unlikely that Interstellar sold more tickets overall (anyone have any late run IMAX or 3D reports from either film?). Martian OW from my estimates (43% RealD, 11% PLF, 54% 3D overall, no IMAX) is marginally ahead of both of the others for OW. It did gain IMAX later in its run so its hard to calculate, but I think their grosses are probably a pretty accurate assessment of their attendance rankings, but their admissions are probably reasonably close overall.

Yeah because BOM's 2008 ticket prices aren't affected by the 3D boom, while as 2009-onwards prices are. It's pretty simple. I even adjusted my TDK number once I was informed of its IMAX share. This is just petty, you're attempting to invalidate the meat of my argument because you see fit to apply a label on me, and that label somehow justifies ignoring the actual points being made. I notice you had nothing to say to my actual explanations. This is silly. 1. I'm not trying to diminish or prop up anything, as I've already established, I'm only interested in gaining as accurate a picture as possible. 2. BOM's inflation adjustment tools are systematic and that system does not accurately account for format splits on a per-film basis. I am attempting to correct for that as much as possible. 3. I don't care what other people were or weren't saying when TDK was passing older films. I try my best to apply this standard on all films, this isn't something exclusive to TDK and anything competing with it. I spent plenty of time trying to evaluate the admissions of the THG films, the Hobbit films, the Marvel films, Frozen last year (admissions comps with TS3/Shrek/etc.), and Potter (I AM most definitely a Potter fan, no secrets there). That certainly does not mean we shouldn't endeavor to get estimate the best data possible. BOM's inflation adjustment system has a RECOGNIZABLE PROBLEM, its not something vague and unknown. And given that studios often do provide 3D splits, it is possible to calculate better estimates than they've provided. It'd be one thing if we were completely in the dark; we had no idea how they were doing their estimates and we had no idea what the 3D splits were. But that is not the case, we are provided enough information and data that we can do better. To not do so and simply accept what we're provided is quite frankly both ignorant and regressive. This is a BO board, there are a considerable number of us that want to dig deeper. No, it is more probable that TDK > Avengers in admissions is factual than the opposite, that's my point. Again, this is a problem that BOM themselves have admitted to existing. Take a look at one of their late reports for Avatar. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2667&p=.htm That's from when it hit 600M and passed Titanic's total at the time. Yet their system has Avatar listed at 95.9M tickets sold with 760M, so at 600M it should have been 76M tickets, not 60M. They even say that the reported average price of a ticket at the time is $7.61, at 600M, that's the equivalent of 78.8M tickets. If you looked at their all time adjusted list at that time, Avatar would have been listed at 78.8M tickets and an adjusted gross in the top 25. What gives? The FACT is that they knew their systematic calculation system was wrong, it's a weaker representation of the truth than they one they present in the article - the exact same method I'm using (pretty simple at that). Are they inaccurate as well? It's clear they knew that there was a problem, so why shouldn't we continue to acknowledge it? I just don't understand why you're under this impression. I've already said I apply this standard to every film I can, why are you convinced that I'm just backing TDK here? I mean we're focusing on TFA right, I've hardly been "upset" that its about to blow TDK out of the water. On the contrary I've been quite bullish.

I'm expecting high 26-29M for Monday.

Also DHD says 70M through Sunday, 19M this weekend. Last weekend was 5.7M from previews + 24.4M from Fri-Sun.

Will do later today

Too bad we don't get detailed reporting like that and Avatar with Brandon gone.

Cool. So 20-21M from weekdays, but over 5M average per day, then 6.3M average for the weekend and only down ~22% from the OW minus previews. About 12.7% IMAX share for the weekend. Hope we get a 3D split as well, it was already only 28% last weekend and it should have dipped even lower now.

That's awesome. 40M following OW, I wonder if it managed to stay above 20M this weekend. Is this from DHD?

Whoa, what? Lots of problems here. What lead you to assume I was a TDK fan? It's a fun summer blockbuster with an awesome performance by Ledger but suffers from choppy editing, Zimmer's excessive droning, and a campy 3rd act. Anyway, my opinions on TDK are irrelevant, the validity of my argument is more important, which it seems like you've simply dismissed because you just assumed I'm an irrational TDK fan (and it seems like you're not grasping how the admissions break down). What does this have to do with me? When did I do this? Uhh, yeah, its called contextualization. There's a significant difference in ticket prices because of 3D. This isn't some revolutionary concept. I don't really care about making either one look better/worse than the other. Well the only account we have on that is the opening weekend of each film. TDK: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2504&p=.htm TA: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3438&p=.htm Logically speaking, because we're looking at a May vs. July, the May weekend would draw relatively more children than July, given that they'd have schools running during the week and they'd be more available to watch over the weekend, whereas TDK can have a more even distribution of children coming in during the weekend and the weekdays. Beyond that, we have no factual record to suggest that either one of them sold more children's tickets. That would be an assumption based on nothing but whim. I don't like assuming things without support, but you seem to be fond of doing so. SW7 needs to sell 73.5M tickets to pass TDK's admissions. At the estimated opening weekend ticket price, it would take ~$760M for TFA to match that (I was using 74M before Red told me that TDK made 50M in IMAX, which brought its estimate down). Avatar sold between 75-76M tickets, in order to match/top that at the OW price, TFA needs to gross right around $780M. As I've made clear before, most films see their 3D shares decline as their run extends. This means the average ticket price dwindles down as they stay in theaters longer, which means that the super high OW price won't hold. Ideally, those shares will be reported to us throughout the run (they were for Avatar, its easily verifiable via BOM's writeups that it sold about 74-74.5M tickets +1.0-1.5M more in its re-release). I've explained this 50 times before. BOM is using average prices reported quarterly by NATO. The problem is: that average number has a fixed 3D split, but each individual film has varying 3D splits. The average price does not attempt to account for each individual film's 3D splits, it just uses the average. When you apply that to the WHOLE quarter, you get an accurate number, but you're never going to get an accurate number for any single film by itself, thus you must rely on reported 3D splits and do the calculations for each film by itself. Here, I'll illustrate it a little better: Let's pretend we have 1 year, with 3 films. Let's say Year 1 prices are: 2D $5.00, 3D $7.50, and IMAX $10.00. Apply 3% inflation for Year 2, so 2D $5.15, 3D $7.73, IMAX $10.30. Year 1 Film 1 grosses $10.0M, 2M from 2D (20%), 6M from 3D (60%), 2M from IMAX (20%) for a total of 1.40M tickets Film 2 grosses $9.0M, 5M from 2D (56%), 3.5M from 3D (38%), 0.5M from IMAX (6%) for a total of 1.52M tickets Film 3 grosses $8.0M, 7.5M from 2D (94%), 0M from 3D, and 0.5M from IMAX (6%), for a total of 1.55M tickets Total of (10 + 9 + 8) $26M gross and (1.40 + 1.52 + 1.55) 4.47M tickets sold. BOM's average price would be ($26M) / (4.47) = $6.04. Their all time adjusted list or all time ticket sales list would just use that $6.04 price for all three films, instead of accounting for the different 2D/3D/IMAX splits. These are the attendance numbers they'd give us: Film 1: $10M / $6.04 = 1.66M tickets Film 2: $9M / $6.04 = 1.49M tickets Film 3:$8M / $6.04 = 1.32M tickets Guess what the sum of those ticket estimates is? 4.47M, the correct number, yet each film is reported incorrectly (the film with the high 3D share is overestimated by 0.26M tickets, and the film with the lowest 2D is underestimated by 0.23M tickets. Same problem we're getting with TDK vs. Avengers or JW, TDK has a 9% IMAX share and 91% 2D share, and no other premium formats. Avengers has somewhere in the vicinity of 40-45% 3D share which also includes an IMAX and PLF boost AND then 4 years of inflation on top of that. The problem is that BOM isn't accounting for TDK's 9% IMAX share or Avengers' 40-45% 3D share. It's just using whatever the average overall price in 2008 and 2012 was (just like I did in our example above), and that ends up overestimating both films, but Avengers more greatly so than TDK obviously, given that its gross split is a much greater proportion of its total. lol. Dude, I don't give a damn if TDK's in/out the top 5 or 25 or whatever. I care about being as accurate and precise as possible. TDK is # 28/29 on the all time admissions list (tied with the Jungle Book estimate), every film listed above aside from JW and TA is ahead of it. Avatar is #27. TFA is going to blow past either of them and have a great chance at cracking the top 10, the first film since Titanic to do so.

No but seriously thanks for that info cool to know. I've been trying to hammer home the bolded point for ages. Do you have an idea as to why they don't just report admissions?

I love you.

I take it you didn't read what I posted with that link. Pre-09 3D boom movies are roughly accurately estimated on BOM. Post-Avatar 3D boom movies are not. TDK made 533M with 50M from IMAX, did 158.4M on OW with 6.3M from IMAX. Avengers did 207.4M on OW with 83M from standard 3D, 16.6M from IMAX, 8.3M from PLF. Guess how many tickets both sold on OW? The same, about 22M (even had the same over/under 25 splits). Guess which had a better multiplier from that OW? TDK, ergo TDK sold more tickets. If Avengers held the same 3D/IMAX/PLF splits throughout its run, it would have sold roughly 65M tickets. We know that it lost IMAX screens eventually so that isn't the case and non-Avatar films tend to see gradually declining 3D shares as well (but this decline is slow, case in point JW fell from 53% on its OW to 49% on its 2nd). Avengers sold somewhere around 67-68M tickets in its overall run, well below TDK's 73.5M (BOM slightly overestimates TDK too, doesn't properly account for IMAX). Jurassic World is even easier, its got 3 more years of inflation AND a higher overall 3D share than Avengers did (53% of which 33% is standard 3D, 12% IMAX, and 8% PLF). It quite obviously fell a few million tickets short of Avengers, so forget TDK. I have it at 62-63M tickets sold.

No its not.

Steep. So ~150M for the weekend. Looking at high 20s for Monday I'd expect. Down 35%.

BJ and Kal did. So almost no one.