spizzer

Also I'm only quoting myself because of the editing problem.

Also, not that that 765M figure was before we got a proper 3D breakdown. I think if TFA's 3D share dips low enough (sub 40%) 765M would take it over Avatar's admissions (meaning <$10.00 average ticket price) and at that level, it would only need ~740M to pass TDK's admissions.

TPM's higher than Avatar, lower than Titanic (Avatar I have estimated at 75-76M tickets, BOM's reports at the time suggest the same). TPM is at ~85. I dug up the data last week to recalculate (I had it at 75-77M before that). http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20748-star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-actuals-in-1st-post-247966675-the-force-awoke-and-its-not-sleeping-anytime-soon-119-68-60/?page=271#comment-2314266 $1.2-1.3B right now, challenging Titanic's attendance. I expect it to have strong legs after the holidays; its performance has been exceptional thus far, I see no reason for it to fall off beyond what you'd expect once normal days kick back in (weaker Mon-Thurs, strong weekend holds).

Guys: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkknight.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm TDK came out before the RealD/3D/IMAX boom. It sold 74M tickets. Would it sell 74M tickets today with a 3D share that would take it to 770M? Who knows? I think arguing that it wouldn't is fair. But TFA needs to gross around 770M to match TDK's admissions. It doesn't matter how much 3D would affect TDK, that's a different conversation entirely.

I'm pretty certain TDK admissions adjusted (accounting for 3D, which it wouldn't have had anyways because its a Nolan movie) would have been around TA-JW level. That's too dramatic of a price drop in just 14 days, a full $0.95 off of the OW price. $9.45 is in the vicinity of a 25% 3D share (including IMAX/PLF). Which means that after the OW it would have had to be running well under 10%. There's no way its that low. Unless what you're saying is that TDK in today's market with its own particular 3D share would have done 700M. That makes more sense, but that's not the same as comparing TFA admissions with TDK admissions. TFA needs to hit around 770M to match/top TDK in admissions

Yeah it probably has but no report of 3D share yet so until then I'll stick with OW price.

Actually it was probably higher than $10.40 but for the sake of consistency across years I've stuck with it.

TDK did 74M admissions. Star Wars OW average price was $10.40. That's 770M.

It needs ~770M for TDK admissions. I think Sunday's a good bet, but it could do it sooner if the Monday drop is less than 35%.

No Bajirao numbers yet

Actually jk. If we take out midnights/previews from Avatar/TFA, it would have do better than Avatar to hit $2B.

If BOM is correct, then GWTW sold 200M tickets over the course of all its releases. For TFA, that'd be anywhere between $1.9-2.1B, which isn't happening. I think its a 0% chance given what we've seen through 10 days, it would have had to follow Avatar to a T, which it didn't.

ROTK opened on a Wednesday. It would have done ~100M with a Friday opening and then a near 50% drop for the 2nd weekend.

If Rth's 58M is correct, IMO 160M is still on board.

So Sat came out lower than Rth's estimate. Not bad though, still above 55M. Sunday drop should be softer than Disney's projection; we got a huge jump last weekend and I expect the same now (sub 10%). 2nd Weekend Attendance record got smashed with the 153M estimate. No reports of 3D/IMAX shares yet, but at the same splits as last week we're looking at ~14.7M tickets. The old record was SM1 at ~12.3M tickets (Shrek 2 also probably over 12.0M tickets). Total tickets sold through 10.5 days is ~52.0M (low-end), so its also on record pace for attendance as well (TDK's the next closest with 40.4M through 10 days).

Pretty awesome. Expect soft Sunday drops across the board.

So do I. The Monday number will give us a better idea.

Cool. So split at 58.5M. We need a <10.8% drop tomorrow for an even 160M.

I'm actually more curious as to how Bajirao Mastani's doing. That Friday number was damn impressive; its rare that Hindi films increase here in the US on the 2nd weekend (actually I can't even think of an instance), but WOM is through the roof for this. I'm running through its dailies for the next week and it could be near 8.5-9.5M by next Sunday (unless Deadline's cumulative total is wrong). Highest grossing Bollywood film ever is P.K. last year at 10.6M and this looks like it might be able to touch that in a best-case scenario by the end of its run and that's with competition from an SRK/Kajol starrer which is going to do $6-7.5M itself (would be 4th/5th highest Bollywood film ever) and opened on the same day.

Tele's dream is alive yet!

Bajirao up from last Friday here in the US. Last week's IM would take it to 2.35M for the weekend and over 5M total with another holiday week and weekend to go and clearly excellent WOM. If I'm following DHD correctly, it did nearly 2M in dailies this past week. So another strong week and then >1M weekend next week could have it sitting at nearly $8M in the US by Jan. 3rd. Impressive indeed. Dilwale also holding solid (expected with the holidays) with what is probably a 1.4-1.5M weekend. Did about 1M during the weekdays so another .8-1.0M this week and .7-1.0M weekend and its at 5.5-6.5M by Jan. 3rd. Maybe I'm going a bit bullish here, but if I'm right, we'd have a combined 13.5-14.5M by the end of next weekend.

Quick! Someone tell us what IAL's OD was. I only know that it opened on a Wednesday and BOM has its opening at ~$21M.

That was one of Rth's earlier extrapolations. It's still only 8:40 on the EC, so wonder if there's room for adjustments. With 55-58 though, I'd expect a soft drop on Sunday, probably right around 10%.

Revenant was listed for 2AM shows at AMC Columbia this weekend, only 1 of 3 theaters in the US I think. Not sure what that was about but now they've disappeared. Has there been any word on that.

$20.