spizzer

Guys the adjusted list doesn't work with 3D film era. After ~2008 its not telling you what you want it to.

285M tickets sold from Hindi industry. Anyone know of any estimates for the regional industries? Nationwide ticket sales I'd wager were still >2B (Forbes estimated 2.6B back in 2012).

BOI - Business Down In 2015 - Footfalls Decreasing Fast

Might be an understatement. It's already sitting at a 4.6 multiplier and has quite a ways to go - looking at an ~8M weekend at least given the Monday number. It could top x10 by the end of its run.

Avatar is just over $10 flat. TFA was ~$10.37 on OW and should have had a gradual decline since then (IMAX % actually went up but RealD 3D tends to trend slowly downward - case in point, JW dropped from 33% on OW to 32% 2nd weekend). At the same $10.37 price, TFA needs 780M to hit Avatar's 75.5M attendance. At ~$10.25, it needs just over 770M. Should be done by Thursday/Friday.

This is an arbitrary adjustment though, its simply applying the average ticket current ticket price to TPM's admissions, which is the wrong way to go about it. It's not assuming a 1:1 ratio for format breakdown. TPM adjusted for inflation of 2D prices only would be considerably lower, right around 690-700M. BOM's adjusted number is not doing this, instead it is adjusting based on the full-year average 2D/3D/IMAX shares in 2015 (or 2016 thus far), which is probably around ~10%. What do we care what TPM would have done with 10% 3D? What we're looking for is TFA passing TPM's 1st run attendance (85-86M tickets), which will be done in the mid-to-high 800M range. Add in roughly 4M more tickets from the re-release and it needs 890-920M to pass TPM's total attendance, which it will end up doing.

Yeah its definitely possible.

Yeah I mean US + Canada.

I agree somewhat with your stance, but your example isn't a perfect comparison. Firstly, the difference in the # of IMAX screens and the popularity of IMAX in the mainstream is much different today than it was 5-10 years ago. SM3 and TDK opened the door for IMAX as a format for mainstream films, with TDK's utilization of the actual IMAX format setting the precedent for future films to do so. Furthermore, there's a vast difference in screen count; SM3 opened to 4.8M on 84 screens, TDK opened to 6.3M on 94 screens. TFA did ~30M on 391 screens (the majority of which are digital, as opposed to SM3/TDK playing mostly in museum and novelty specialized locations with largely native 15/70 screens). Without even accounting for inflation, those would adjust to record level openings today with 391 screens instead of 84/94. FWIW, similar inherent problem with your iOS vs. AAA console game example - its not just the price of the game, its the fact that the last couple of iPhone/iPad generations total well into the 100Ms for hardware sales, vs. the current generation of consoles, from late 2012 - 2015 haven't even combined for 70M units WW yet. Actually I think this video game comparison is much harder to make than the film one. There's a problem of install base in both cases (IMAX screens then vs. now; Apple hardware vs. console sales), but I think that difference is FAR more pronounced in the gaming example than in this example. The key point is that IMO this problem clearly trumps the problem of price that you've brought up. What's going to hold someone back from watching a film in IMAX more, the fact that IMAX tickets cost a few extra bucks or the fact that there are no IMAX screens in their vicinity? I'd wager its the latter. I think it makes more a lot more sense to compare admissions and apply context like reasonably knowledgeable people, rather than double count expensive tickets. Actually I think that latter scenario is completely illogical.

Ticket counts shouldn't be seen as anything beyond literally ticket counts. Coming to conclusions such as performance of Film X > Film Y because X admissions > Y admissions is on the individual, not on the film.

No 3D splits yet, but we got an IMAX gross through 17 days of ~98M which is 13%. RealD 3D share can't have fallen as low as 20% yet, it would have had to collapse to ~16% outside of the OW in order to be at 20% for the full 17 days, and that doesn't make sense given that 3D share decline is typically more gradual. It should be sitting in the low 20s outside of OW, so overall I'm guessing roughly 25% (hopefully we get an update from BOM/DHD/Gitesh after it passes Avatar's gross this week). Through 17 days, it's sitting at ~72M tickets (record). It'll pass TDK's admissions (73.5M) on Tuesday and Avatar's admissions (75-76M) by Thursday or Friday. TPM will fall sometime next week (again, depends on the 3D share) and then its the march to 100M tickets.

US attendance estimate is 1.33B. So China & US are even closer in terms of admissions than in terms of gross (China did 94.7% of US admissions this year, but only 61.0% of US gross).

Right around mid 70M. It will pass Avatar's 75-76M attendance and 760M gross both this week and is looking to go over 100M for the total run. Titanic did ~128M admissions, so it's going to need 1.25-1.3B to touch that. EDIT: Just to clarify, referring to Titanic's first run.

Est. IMAX gross of 98.2M now, 13.3%, up from 12.1% on OW. No 3D share, but the 3D gross might be reported as it passes Avatar.

Happy New Year everyone! I may or may not be a little bit loopy.

Still filling up.

Understood, but if he starts doing it now for every film in the future I think its reasonable. I can't fault him for when he decides to change his standard, its okay, IMO, for an extreme situation like this to incite the change. BUT if he's not consistent in the future then its an issue. From this point on it shouldn't be a TFA-exclusive thing for him. If it is, then I agree with your disapproval.

Business hours for a single-day time-frame are 6AM - 5:59AM though. So previews starting at 7PM counted up till 5:50 shows would be about 0.5 days (.46 days to be precise). 57M made from 7PM Thursday - 5:59 AM Friday and 62M from 6AM Friday - 5:59 Saturday would be 119M in about 1.5 BO tracking days. I personally hold the same standard for the old midnight previews. For example, TDKR from 12AM Fri - 5:59 Fri made ~30M and ~45M from 6AM Fri - 5:59 Sat. 75M in roughly 1.25 days. ~160.9M 3.25 day weekend. Same standard with TA, or TDK, or whatever else. Makes sense ITO shows as well. TFA had ~198,000 shows from Fri-Sun, without previews. About 66K per day, and somewhere between 30-35K shows from Thursday 7PM - Friday 5:59 AM, which is half of how many it had in the other 24-hour frames.

10:35 4K Laser 3D at Udvar Hazy tonight. First time I'm doing 3D anything since Gravity.

No this is different. What you're referring to was polled data that was indicating a much higher price ($13-14 range).

Yep. Avatar when it touched 600M was reported at about a 66/15 RealD/IMAX split. We also know that the ~10M 're-release was 100% 3D, so it's pretty safe to assume that the full run was about 80% 3D.

Rule of thumb is that the average price is right between $10.00 and $10.37 somewhere ($10.37 was estimated OW price). So at 600M we're at 58-59M tickets sold. Sith should be passed today if it wasn't already yesterday.

Tysons again because that was most convenient for the group. Let me know how AFI goes, I'm sure they'll do a better job as well.

Caught the 70mm Roadshow this afternoon. Sound was remarkable, crazy immersive. Sam was Sam, Roth's timing was impeccable, Goggins pulled the most laughs, haven't heard as much talk about Russell but he slipped right into the Hangman, and I can go on. Loved it.

Dunno, we only got an IMAX report this weekend, no 3D or PLF, but the IMAX share went up this weekend (12% -> 13%) and overall was 70M IMAX on Sunday (13%).