spizzer

TFA had 47,700 shows yesterday. It should go above 50,000 again today. Also, on Hateful Eight's numbers, remember the Roadshow ticket price is right around $20 across the board (someone correct me if this is wrong). Even accounting for matinees, average ticket was around $19. At the 1.9M estimate is sold just under 100K tickets yesterday. For comparison, Big Short did ~3.9M, roughly double the gross, but sold somewhere between 4-5 times as many tickets.

They could have done well with less, but it worked. Those sequences were enjoyable. Thought the editing was a bit rushed/choppy in a couple scenes. That was relatively technical for a film though and considering that it was surprisingly entertaining and easy to follow, though my perspective is obviously a bit skewed - I sat the CFA I two weeks ago. H8 Roadshow and TFA rewatch in Laser & 15/70 are next this week.

In the 1:10 right now. Same (Econ/Finance), I'm pretty excited.

Yeah, if we get 165M with a slightly lower 3D share than last week, that's ~16.5M tickets, that'd inflate to >$200M within 6-10 years. That's going to be tough to take down for any film.

Solid. +78-85% from Thursday. 49.0M Friday 60.1M Saturday (+22.5%) 49.3M Sunday (-18%) 158.4M Weekend Or 51.0M Friday 62.5M Saturday (+22.5%) 51.3M Sunday (-18%) 164.7M Weekend Saturday jump might be weaker, but Sunday drop could be softer. 155-165M looks like the target range right now.

Guys just wait for Rth late night

Well that makes it sound like 55M.

Eh, people were saying a variety of different things. Plenty of folks saying they would be impressed if it even hit 50M. I can't speak for anyone but myself; last night I emphasized that it may be the case that the stronger than expected Thursday might mean a "muted" Friday increase (45-50M would be that territory), as opposed to jumping 100%. If that ends up being the range, I'd expect the Saturday jump to compensate by being slightly higher than expectation, maybe 25-30% instead of ~20%.

Well there you go. THR just putting out a headline since no one threw out a Friday number yet.

Good point, but does that compensate for folks that were still working yesterday that are now off? This is the biggest holiday if the year, even compared to Christmas Eve, the matinee business capacity is just larger.

I'd be pretty surprised with that number. I'm guessing that matinees were around ~20M and THR is incorrectly extrapolating another 15-20M from evenings, using the precedent from the weekdays. Evenings should actually be 30-40M. 35-40M doesn't make much sense, no matter how you split it up, it would either mean matinee business is weaker today than yesterday, or that evening business is weaker than yesterday. Neither of those is feasible.

Avatars had a 3.27 IM this weekend. That should be the high-end from whatever the Friday number is.

Sometime in the past couple of hours, we already crossed 400M. Tomorrow night we may have crossed 500M.

Depends on China.

Same logic applies to post-holidays though. Normal, even well received films don't hold this well during this time frame, it takes exceptional reception for it to happen. In the last 10 years, I recall this happening twice before on a significant scale. Avatar and Frozen. We saw what happened with Avatar, Frozen was similar, just on a smaller scale (pulled an 11X multiplier from its pre-Christmas weekend). Following the holidays, neither of them fell off beyond what would be expected with the end of the holidays. TFA arguably has better reception than either of them, and clearly has a much broader appeal. I don't expect it to keep up with Avatar's pace, it's losing a noticeable amount on average every day; through Thursday its already down to 93.5% of Avatar's opening Friday multiplier (5.753 vs. 5.378) and it will continue to go down. But all it needs for $1B is 47.5%, $1.2B is 57.5%. Perhaps it does go down that low but I'm doing mid-level projections and its still high 60s several weeks from now. I think we're looking at quite a few of Avatar's weekend records going down even after the 3rd/4th weekends.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20748-star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-actuals-in-1st-post-247966675-the-force-awoke-and-its-not-sleeping-anytime-soon-119-68-60/?do=findComment&comment=2314266 Also, for TFA, Deadline reported a 28% 3D share, 12% IMAX 3D share, and 7% PLF share for the OW. Based on that I got an average price of $10.40 and ~23.9M tickets sold over the weekend. This weekend we'll get more information on how the shares have shifted over the week and 2nd weekend, but till then, I'm using the $10.40 price which means TFA is sitting at 37.6M tickets sold through Thursday.

If it follows Avatar it can grab Sunday, then next week break its own Mon-Wednesday records, then take the Thursday record.

You should have made a false 60M Friday thread. It worked before.

Pretty good chance at the Sunday record as well.

Huge. Not sure what to make of this; should we assume a slightly weaker Christmas Day increase because Thursday kept higher pace than expected or just assume the usual? 28.0M Thursday 58.8M Friday (+110%) 70.6M Saturday (+20%) 57.9M Sunday (-18%) 187.2M weekend. The only thing I'd question is the Friday jump. Avatar fell 19.9% on its 2nd Monday. Coming off a 57.9M Sunday, this could fall 30% and still crack 40M on Monday. Relatively standard pace throughout the week from that 30% drop would put it on pace for a 125-130M 3rd weekend and 850M by the Jan. 3 Sunday.

180.5 Crore combined 1st week (BOI early estimate), roughly $37M accounting for tax.

If it does that then the weekdays next week will probably be similar to this week, if not slightly stronger, and we might have a 150M 3rd weekend for NY. Also it'd be sitting at ~900M by next Sunday.

Merry Christmas everyone!

If it does that, it's going to be around 850-900M by NY weekend, maybe even higher. The Winter period will follow, with a holiday weekend in January and a holiday weekend in February. The NY weekend could be anywhere between 120-140M if this weekend is ~185M, and we'd be looking at a >5.0 multiplier. That'd set it on pace for 1.5-1.7B, which is anywhere from 140-165M tickets (depends on the final 3D share). For reference, Titanic's 1st run is ~128M. EDIT: Also to answer your question, 1.25B is anywhere between 115-130M tickets. At my current estimated OW price, it'd be about 120M tickets. Most likely the full run's 3D share will be lower though.

Y'all need to take charge of your Christmas plans.