I'm a big supporter of Avatar, and this is not a doom and gloom thread, but the numbers have been particularly disappointing for such an anticipated sequel. My focus is entirely on domestic, and it's doing just fine overseas despite its collapse in Japan (and China's fall but that is partially due to the COVID lockdowns).
Avatar 2 is estimated to make around $134m-$135m on its OW. The first Avatar released 13 years ago, and opened to $77m. In today's prices, that would amount to roughly $110m. The fact that Avatar 2 will end up increasing a mere 20% on opening weekend alone (likely just around 10% in admissions) is completely unexpected and less than practically anyone would have predicted. The mere 10% jump in admissions is worrying because this film had Thursday showings, too (which makes seeing it more accessible than outright midnights).
The one thing I was surprised to hear (anecdotal and not from the US) was the amount of people who were surprised that it was even coming out. I'm not sure awareness was as high as it could have been, and what I'm hoping ends up happening is that the strong WOM propels it to a very strong multiplier. It's essentially locked for $400m, and will very likely hit $500m so its overall gross will not be too disappointing but if it does end up with let's say $530m, that would mean a 50% drop in admissions from the first which did roughly 76m admissions.