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BadAtGender

Tuesday Numbers

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I guess there are a few exceptions with movies like Growns Ups or Transformers movies doing very well with terrible reviews, but as a general rule I think terrible reviews WOM really hurt a movie's legs.  Especially if it is "trying (i.e. faking)" to aim for an adult audience, like TOW.  I will be shocked if TOW shows good legs with females over the age of 25 over the next 2 weekends.  Good marketing can give it a strong opening 3 days, but it can't hide its true nature for long.

 

TOW is having pretty good WOM

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I guess there are a few exceptions with movies like Growns Ups or Transformers movies doing very well with terrible reviews, but as a general rule I think terrible reviews really hurt a movie's legs.  Especially if it is "trying (i.e. faking)" to aim for an adult audience, like TOW.  I will be shocked if TOW shows good legs with females over the age of 25 over the next 2 weekends.  Good marketing can give it a strong opening 3 days, but it can't hide its true nature for long.

In our world of social media anyone not seeing a movie on OW will then rely on their friends FB/Twitter and general 'water cooler' talk to decide on a film. If it stays sustained for the second/third weekends then it's a fair assumption that WOM has been good regardless of sites like RT/MC. 

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It has had the same kind of Monday-Tuesday fall as Transcendence (percentage-wise).  I think it will fall 50% next weekend for a 12.5 weekend.

 

You can't compare the two, second week drops are softer than first week and Transcendence has much less to drop from. TOW has been holding better than anything else in the top12 and its Tuesday bump was second only to HIFR which is having a leggy run.

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Okay, but TOW also has the same IMDB score as Transcendence.  I was under the impression that a 6.4 score on IMDB is pretty low, considering the average user there seems to give movies about a 7.5 on average. 

 

May I remind you about an old saying,

 

IMDB RATINGS ARE USELESS!!!

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Critics matter somewhat, especially with movie-going audiences over the age of 40 who do not show up on opening weekend.  I have a hard time believing that movies like Hunger Games, Gravity, Frozen, The Dark Knight, Captain America 2, etc. would do as well as they did if they had a 25% approval rating on RT instead of a 90%.  The most TOW is going to make is 70-80 million domestic.

 

Only thing that matters is WOM, the rest don't mean nothing.  And if TOW makes it to 80 mill, that would be great.  There's a lot of comedies coming out in the next few weeks.  So getting north of a 3X would be great.

Edited by baumer
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Did Cameron Diaz turn you down for a date, Ando?  Hating a movie as much as you do without any reason except that intellectually it is beneath you is really strange.

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Okay, but TOW also has the same IMDB score as Transcendence.  I was under the impression that a 6.4 score on IMDB is pretty low, considering the average user there seems to give movies about a 7.5 on average. 

 

The average is officially 7.1

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