The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[AniNate]

Is there any hope of the early 2013 season competing with this year's? However great fall might end up being it needs to carry over into the next year.

[Shawn Robbins]

Not even a bit of a possibility that this turns like PhantomofOpera?Can RockofAges be some sort of indication?

Always possible. Musicals are weird beasts when it comes to box office. But given that its awards season and Tom Hooper is fresh off of King's Speech -- and the fact that its one of the most popular musicals ever -- I'd say Les will do considerably better than RoA. And it seems to have the clout behind it that Phantom didn't.

[AniNate]

Not even a bit of a possibility that this turns like PhantomofOpera?Can RockofAges be some sort of indication?

Les Mis has a director fresh off a BP victory. It would be a shock if it turned out like Rock of Ages.

[Shawn Robbins]

Is there any hope of the early 2013 season competing with this year's? However great fall might end up being it needs to carry over into the next year.

I doubt it myself, but who knows? Not sure I'm confident in any season where GI Joe 2 is considered one of the "big" releases.

[AniNate]

So I guess this thread's going to be a mainstay on this forum for the next year or so.

[Gideon]

If the movie hits, with 3D prices and little competition, its definitely possible.

Hobbit over 500M....Fans: fuck yeahhh!Haters: nahhh, 3D! or Let's talk about adjusted numbers!Jackson: oops i did it again :)WB: let's cut part3 in two!DataAddicts: biggest prequel ever! Biggest Jackson movie ever! 3rd biggest non-superhero movie ever! 2nd of the year!

[lab276]

Exactly. That's the beauty and the curse of it being open to interpretation.

But if we know that even under the very worst circumstances, the middle four months are always the biggest, I don't see how it can be open to interpretation.

[lab276]

Is there any hope of the early 2013 season competing with this year's? However great fall might end up being it needs to carry over into the next year.

It's certainly possible, but it'd be more concentrated in January compared to year.

[Gideon]

Les Mis has a director fresh off a BP victory. It would be a shock if it turned out like Rock of Ages.

Hmm i want this new chart:Based on directors, Worst BO performers following a BestPicture victory.

[Gideon]

Always possible. Musicals are weird beasts when it comes to box office. But given that its awards season and Tom Hooper is fresh off of King's Speech -- and the fact that its one of the most popular musicals ever -- I'd say Les will do considerably better than RoA. And it seems to have the clout behind it that Phantom didn't.

Hmm ok.And i didn't even start about Nine! (talk about a wasted stellar cast...)

[lab276]

Hmm i want this new chart:Based on directors, Worst BO performers following a BestPicture victory.

I guess Michael Cimino. I have seen neither Deer Hunter nor Heaven's Gate, but I understand they're polar opposites in terms of quality. Edited August 19, 2012 by lab276

[Hiccup]

I think the box office from here till November will be identical to last year (two big films and the rest small to average). November should be a solid month. Twilight Saga: BD2 is the only lock to 200M. Bond looks like it should make over 150M but 200M might be too much to ask for. I am going with Sherlock Holme 2 finishing numbers 180M-190M. Wreck-It Ralph (170M) and Rise of the Guardians (125M) should make it over 100M but not over 200M most likely. Life of Pi and The Flight should do around 75M-100M. December will be more of a quite month. I am seeing only one 200M+ film (Hobbit- 435M) and Les Miserables (90M) and Django Unchained (110M) should do 100M most likely but anything over 150M is to optimistic. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they miss 100M. The rest of the films should perform under 100M unless a break out happens. I am keeping my expectations low in the future.

Edited August 19, 2012 by Andrew the Alien

[MovieMan89]

Les Mis has a ton going for it that most musicals don't. Shawn already pointed out some of the big pros like it having all the awards buzz, being The King's Speech director's follow up, and being one of the most popular and well known musicals of all time. In addition to that it has a very appealing and well known cast, and I think the tone and everything of the movie fits the holiday season like a glove. Will be very surprised if it doesn't have great legs through December.

[Shawn Robbins]

But if we know that even under the very worst circumstances, the middle four months are always the biggest, I don't see how it can be open to interpretation.

That's why I usually prefer the year-to-year method myself.

[JackO]

I think the box office from here till November will be identical to last year (two big films and the rest small to average). November should be a solid month. Twilight Saga: BD2 is the only lock to 200M. Bond looks like it should make over 150M but 200M might be too much to ask for. I am going with Sherlock Holme 2 finishing numbers 180M-190M. Wreck-It Ralph (170M) and Rise of the Guardians (125M) should make it over 100M but not over 200M most likely. Life of Pi and The Flight should do around 75M-100M. December will be more of a quite month. I am seeing only one 200M+ film (Hobbit- 435M) and Les Miserables (90M) and Django Unchained (110M) should do 100M most likely but anything over 150M is to optimistic. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they miss 100M. The rest of the films should perform under 100M unless a break out happens. I am keeping my expectations low in the future.

I agree with your take. Lots of mid range films in December since I assume The Hobbit will suck up most of the marketplace. But there are definitely some films that can breakout: Les MiserableMonsters Inc 3DDjango UnchainedNovember looks good too. Just have to make it past this rough patch till box office gets fun again.

[AniNate]

October has its share of potential too. But this next month looks so painfully dull that the rest of the year might not be able to make up for it.

[MovieMan89]

October has its share of potential too. But this next month looks so painfully dull that the rest of the year might not be able to make up for it.

Since when is September a make or break month for any year?

[AniNate]

Since when is September a make or break month for any year?

Hey, the off-months have to perform too, especially with the downswing we're already on. September was one of the few saving graces of last year.

[MovieMan89]

Hey, the off-months have to perform too, especially with the downswing we're already on. September was one of the few saving graces of last year.

Yeah and then we had a piss poor Holiday season right after. I'd much rather have the weak September and amazing Holiday season this year will likely see compared to the other way around. And there are potential breakouts this September too, its not like it's as bad as this past April's movies for appeal.

[BK007]

Since when is September a make or break month for any year?

This thread gets spurts of posts. Difficult to keep up.Anyway, every month has the potential to break a year. Given that months that traditionally do well are always competitive vis a vis previous years, you'd want to get the upper hand by doing well in those off-months. And, on the flipside, if you do terribly it is very hard to make up especially as the year draws to a close. You can't go into December being over $75m behind. (Just an arbitrary number might be higher/lower) The releases would then need to match the previous/record year and add another $75m. Where's the money going to come from?