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chasmmi's Winter 2014 Game : Top 7 Domestic Opening Weekends

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Domestic Top 7 Opening Weekend Standings

Top 7 Opening Weekends as of December 29th 2014.

(Films predicted are highlighted in BOLD)
 

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 - 121.898m

2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 89.132m **

3. Big Hero 6 - 56.216m

4. Interstellar - 49.662m **

5. Into the Woods - 46.142m **

6. Unbroken - 46.056m **

7. Gone Girl - 37.513m

 

Not in top 7 (but predicted below)

8. Annabelle - 37.134m

9. Dumb and Dumber To - 36.112m

10. Penguins of Madagascar - 35.439m **

11. Exodus: Gods and Kings - 24.116

14. Horrible Bosses 2 - 22.771m **

17. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb - 17.101m

 

** # includes all grosses till first Sunday.

 

The following colors only apply to films in the Top 7  Opening Weekends:
If your prediction is in GOLD, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $1m. You get 40,000 points!

If your prediction is in PURPLE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $2.5m. You get 35,000 points!
If your prediction is in BRIGHT GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $5m. You get 30,000 points!
If your prediction is in BLUE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $10m. You get 25,000 points! 
If your prediction is in DARK GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $15m. You get 20,000 points! 

If your prediction is in PINK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $20m. You get 15,000 points! 

If your prediction is in GREY, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $30m. You get 10,000 points! 
If your prediction is in BLACK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You get SAFE (0)! 

 

The following colors only apply to films that did not make the Top 7 Opening Weekends:

If your prediction is in RED, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND within $30m. You lose 7,000 points (-7,000)! 

If your prediction is in RED strikethru, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You lose 17,000 points (-17,000)! 

 

OCTOBER
GONE GIRL (7/23)
avi - 57m

grim22 - 52m
Alpha - 50m
iceroll - 43m
Snoopy of Suburbia - 38m
Actual OW - 37.513m
bcf26 - 37m
Spaghetti - 33m
 

ANNABELLE (1/23)
Grey Ghost - 38m

Actual OW - 37.134m
 

NOVEMBER

BIG HERO 6 (23/23)

mahnamahna - 68.5m

avi - 68m

Spaghetti - 67m

Empire - 66m

Alpha - 65m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 65m

DAJK - 65m

Blankments - 64m

bcf26 - 64m

iceroll - 63m

Geraldino - 62m

darkelf - 61m

Telemachos - 59m

chasmmi - 57m

laguy03 - 57m

Jajang - 56.3m

Actual OW - 56.216m

Wrath - 55m

grim22 - 53m

Filmovie - 50m

The Panda - 50m

Grey Ghost - 48m

cmasterclay - 48m

Punishment - 40m

 

INTERSTELLAR (23/23)
mahnamahna - 97m

Jajang - 91.4m

darkelf - 89m

bcf26 - 88m

The Panda - 85m

chasmmi - 84m

Geraldino - 84m

Empire - 83m

DAJK - 83m

Blankments - 81m

Alpha - 80m

Filmovie - 80m

Wrath - 80m

grim22 - 79m

Spaghetti - 78m

iceroll - 78m

Telemachos - 78m

cmasterclay - 74m

avi - 65m

laguy03 - 61m

Punishment - 55m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 54m

Grey Ghost - 52m

Actual OW - 49.662m

 

DUMB AND DUMBER TO (4/23)
chasmmi - 41m

mahnamahna - 40.5m

The Panda - 40.000000001m

Filmovie - 40m

Actual OW - 36.112m

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY - PART 1 (23/23)
Jajang - 173.4m

Punishment - 165m

avi - 162m

iceroll - 161m

Wrath - 160m

cmasterclay - 160m

Geraldino - 157m

DAJK - 156m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 155m

darkelf - 155m

laguy03 - 155m

Telemachos - 155m

Filmovie - 154m

Spaghetti - 154m

Empire - 153m

Blankments - 153m

grim22 - 152m

Grey Ghost - 150m

The Panda - 150m

mahnamahna - 148.5m

chasmmi - 147m

Alpha - 145m

bcf26 - 133m

Actual OW - 121.898m

 

PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR (21/23)

Wrath - 75m

iceroll - 60m

grim22 - 60m

Telemachos - 60m

Geraldino - 57m

Blankments - 54m

laguy03 - 51m

Empire - 50m

Filmovie - 49m

Jajang - 47.5m

darkelf - 47m

mahnamahna - 46.5m

Alpha - 45m

cmasterclay - 45m

avi - 44m

DAJK - 44m

chasmmi - 43m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 43m

The Panda - 40m

Spaghetti - 36m

Actual OW - 35.439m

Punishment - 25m

 

HORRIBLE BOSSES 2 (3/23)

Empire - 58m

Filmovie - 51m

Jajang - 39.2m

Actual OW - 22.771m

 

DECEMBER

EXODUS: GODS AND KINGS (20/23)

Wrath - 95m

chasmmi - 69m

Alpha - 60m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 57m

iceroll - 57m

cmasterclay - 55m

mahnamahna - 54m

grim22 - 52m

Empire - 48m

Blankments - 48m

Geraldino - 48m

Grey Ghost - 46m

laguy03 - 46m

Punishment - 45m

Spaghetti - 45m

The Panda - 45m

bcf26 - 44m

Telemachos - 44m

darkelf - 41m

DAJK - 40m

Actual OW - 24.116m

 

THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES (23/23)

Jajang - 140.3m

Filmovie - 114m

Telemachos - 102m

iceroll - 101m

Blankments - 100m

grim22 - 100m

Geraldino - 98m

darkelf - 97m

DAJK - 97m

The Panda - 95m

chasmmi - 94m

Empire - 92m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 90m

Wrath - 90m

Actual OW - 89.132m

bcf26 - 84m

avi - 83m

Spaghetti - 80m

cmasterclay - 80m

laguy03 - 75m

mahnamahna - 71m

Alpha - 70m

Punishment - 60m

Grey Ghost - 41m

 

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: SECRET OF THE TOMB (8/23)

avi - 61m

Wrath - 60m

laguy03 - 49m

Geraldino - 47m

Telemachos - 46m

bcf26 - 42m

Grey Ghost - 33m

Punishment - 30m

Actual OW - 17.101m

 

INTO THE WOODS (1/23)

Blankments - 52m

Actual OW - 46.142m

Edited by Jajang and Back Again
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Some interesting stats that are coming out as a result of the updates:

 

1. a Total of 13 films were predicted to make into the top 7 films.

2. of those we are now assured a minimum of 7 films will not make the top 7.

3. So far we have 1 film which was not predicted to be in the top 7 by anyone (Unbroken) - our first true surprise.

4. Penguins of Madgascar was the film most selected in a top 7 but will not make it now (21 players selected it) (Exodus was a close second at 20 players)

5. congratulations to Blankments for being the only player to select Into the Woods in their top 7 (which is now likely to make the top 7)

6. Gone Girl is now most at risk of missing out

7. The only film remaining that was predicted to be in the top 7 was Tak3n. 

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3. So far we have 1 film which was not predicted to be in the top 7 by anyone (Unbroken) - our first true surprise.

 

It was my make up choice  :(

 

In Italy American Sniper had a really really impressive OD and considering its start in limited in US, I wouldn't be surprised if it became the 7th movie of the chart.

Edited by Filmovie
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Domestic Top 7 Opening Weekend Standings

Top 7 Opening Weekends as of January 12th 2015.

(Films predicted are highlighted in BOLD)
 

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 - 121.898m

2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 89.132m **

3. Big Hero 6 - 56.216m

4. Interstellar - 49.662m **

5. Into the Woods - 46.142m **

6. Unbroken - 46.056m **

7. Taken 3 - 39.202m

 

Not in top 7 (but predicted below)

8. Gone Girl - 37.513m

9. Annabelle - 37.134m

10. Dumb and Dumber To - 36.112m

11. Penguins of Madagascar - 35.439m **

12. Exodus: Gods and Kings - 24.116

15. Horrible Bosses 2 - 22.771m **

18. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb - 17.101m

 

** # includes all grosses till first Sunday.

 

The following colors only apply to films in the Top 7  Opening Weekends:
If your prediction is in GOLD, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $1m. You get 40,000 points!

If your prediction is in PURPLE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $2.5m. You get 35,000 points!
If your prediction is in BRIGHT GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $5m. You get 30,000 points!
If your prediction is in BLUE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $10m. You get 25,000 points! 
If your prediction is in DARK GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $15m. You get 20,000 points! 

If your prediction is in PINK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $20m. You get 15,000 points! 

If your prediction is in GREY, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $30m. You get 10,000 points! 
If your prediction is in BLACK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You get SAFE (0)! 

 

The following colors only apply to films that did not make the Top 7 Opening Weekends:

If your prediction is in RED, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND within $30m. You lose 7,000 points (-7,000)! 

If your prediction is in RED strikethru, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You lose 17,000 points (-17,000)! 

 

OCTOBER
GONE GIRL (7/23)
avi - 57m

grim22 - 52m
Alpha - 50m
iceroll - 43m
Snoopy of Suburbia - 38m
Actual OW - 37.513m
bcf26 - 37m
Spaghetti - 33m
 

ANNABELLE (1/23)
Grey Ghost - 38m

Actual OW - 37.134m
 

NOVEMBER

BIG HERO 6 (23/23)

mahnamahna - 68.5m

avi - 68m

Spaghetti - 67m

Empire - 66m

Alpha - 65m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 65m

DAJK - 65m

Blankments - 64m

bcf26 - 64m

iceroll - 63m

Geraldino - 62m

darkelf - 61m

Telemachos - 59m

chasmmi - 57m

laguy03 - 57m

Jajang - 56.3m

Actual OW - 56.216m

Wrath - 55m

grim22 - 53m

Filmovie - 50m

The Panda - 50m

Grey Ghost - 48m

cmasterclay - 48m

Punishment - 40m

 

INTERSTELLAR (23/23)
mahnamahna - 97m

Jajang - 91.4m

darkelf - 89m

bcf26 - 88m

The Panda - 85m

chasmmi - 84m

Geraldino - 84m

Empire - 83m

DAJK - 83m

Blankments - 81m

Alpha - 80m

Filmovie - 80m

Wrath - 80m

grim22 - 79m

Spaghetti - 78m

iceroll - 78m

Telemachos - 78m

cmasterclay - 74m

avi - 65m

laguy03 - 61m

Punishment - 55m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 54m

Grey Ghost - 52m

Actual OW - 49.662m

 

DUMB AND DUMBER TO (4/23)
chasmmi - 41m

mahnamahna - 40.5m

The Panda - 40.000000001m

Filmovie - 40m

Actual OW - 36.112m

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY - PART 1 (23/23)
Jajang - 173.4m

Punishment - 165m

avi - 162m

iceroll - 161m

Wrath - 160m

cmasterclay - 160m

Geraldino - 157m

DAJK - 156m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 155m

darkelf - 155m

laguy03 - 155m

Telemachos - 155m

Filmovie - 154m

Spaghetti - 154m

Empire - 153m

Blankments - 153m

grim22 - 152m

Grey Ghost - 150m

The Panda - 150m

mahnamahna - 148.5m

chasmmi - 147m

Alpha - 145m

bcf26 - 133m

Actual OW - 121.898m

 

PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR (21/23)

Wrath - 75m

iceroll - 60m

grim22 - 60m

Telemachos - 60m

Geraldino - 57m

Blankments - 54m

laguy03 - 51m

Empire - 50m

Filmovie - 49m

Jajang - 47.5m

darkelf - 47m

mahnamahna - 46.5m

Alpha - 45m

cmasterclay - 45m

avi - 44m

DAJK - 44m

chasmmi - 43m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 43m

The Panda - 40m

Spaghetti - 36m

Actual OW - 35.439m

Punishment - 25m

 

HORRIBLE BOSSES 2 (3/23)

Empire - 58m

Filmovie - 51m

Jajang - 39.2m

Actual OW - 22.771m

 

DECEMBER

EXODUS: GODS AND KINGS (20/23)

Wrath - 95m

chasmmi - 69m

Alpha - 60m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 57m

iceroll - 57m

cmasterclay - 55m

mahnamahna - 54m

grim22 - 52m

Empire - 48m

Blankments - 48m

Geraldino - 48m

Grey Ghost - 46m

laguy03 - 46m

Punishment - 45m

Spaghetti - 45m

The Panda - 45m

bcf26 - 44m

Telemachos - 44m

darkelf - 41m

DAJK - 40m

Actual OW - 24.116m

 

THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES (23/23)

Jajang - 140.3m

Filmovie - 114m

Telemachos - 102m

iceroll - 101m

Blankments - 100m

grim22 - 100m

Geraldino - 98m

darkelf - 97m

DAJK - 97m

The Panda - 95m

chasmmi - 94m

Empire - 92m

Snoopy of Suburbia - 90m

Wrath - 90m

Actual OW - 89.132m

bcf26 - 84m

avi - 83m

Spaghetti - 80m

cmasterclay - 80m

laguy03 - 75m

mahnamahna - 71m

Alpha - 70m

Punishment - 60m

Grey Ghost - 41m

 

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: SECRET OF THE TOMB (8/23)

avi - 61m

Wrath - 60m

laguy03 - 49m

Geraldino - 47m

Telemachos - 46m

bcf26 - 42m

Grey Ghost - 33m

Punishment - 30m

Actual OW - 17.101m

 

INTO THE WOODS (1/23)

Blankments - 52m

Actual OW - 46.142m

 

TAKEN 3 (4/23)
cmasterclay - 50m

darkelf - 44m

Actual OW - 39.202m

Jajang - 38.4m

DAJK - 38m

 

 

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Given Taken3's estimated,it is pretty sure to say that GG is out of the top 7.

However, I wouldn't even bet on Taken. AS is coming next weekend after amazing numbers in limited.

 

American Sniper won't be counted for it's wide opening weekend.  The rules only mention the "first sunday" excluding Big Hero 6 if had done a limited run before going wide.  American Sniper has already been counted for it first "limited" weekend for about 800k.

 

Only remaining films that will be eligible/stand even a remote chance of making it) for entry into this chart are (if the film isn't going wide then somehow i doubt it will open above 39m ;) )

 

- Blackhat (yeah ok ... no.)

- Paddington (which i say no, there is a small chance that this opens big)

- The Wedding Ringer (see paddington above.. small chance but unlikely as i think american sniper will steal all the thunder here)

- The Boy Next Door (er no.)

- Mortdecai (huh ?)

- Strange Magic (it would be a strange day indeed)

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ok i'm not posting any scores but yet  i have the results as they stand assuming nothing else opens over 39m (which i think is highly unlikely at this point)

 

The lowest anyone scored in this was 4k :P

The average score was 54k ;)

 

5 players managed to pick 5 films out of the 7 total picks (and coincidentally also scored > 100k.  the highest scorer was 151k.

2 players manged to pick the top 3 films in order (ie. gained 50k) (1 of those just made more than 100k overall)

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Sweet.  I had more than 1/4 of all the red + strikethrough predicts of the entire competition (3 out of 11).

 

Edit - I really wish I had the chance to retroactively go back and, not take advantage of knowing the numbers, apply what I learned about predictive strategy.  Still wouldn't have been great, but would have been less painful.

Edited by Wrath
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