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MCU films you're worried are going to disappoint critically and/or financially?

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Civil War should do fine but I'm worried about Infinity War pt. 1 financially. When movies are divided into two the the first one tends to drop in gross.

Hopefully it can manage to gross more than Iron Man 3 domestic and worldwide.

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I'm also worried about Black Panther. I want it to be a critical and fiscal success but it might be hard sell for general audiences.

How many movies with a black main character are a global hit without Will Smith?

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I don't get worried by stuff like this.  :ph34r: I think IW1 might sink to Iron Man levels of box office, unless GotG2 explodes in 2017, which I think it won't happen.

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Well every film They've made is Fresh on RT (even TIH barely) and all expect TIH were box office successes so kind of hard to be worried right now, doesn't mean I will like them all though.

 

My Predictions:

 

2015: Ant-Man $225m/$550m

2016: Captain America: Civil War $425m/$1.125b

2016: Doctor Strange $220m/$520m

2017: GotG 2 $370m/$950m

2017: Spider-Man $200m/$650m

2017: Thor: Ragnarok: $250m/$700m

2018: Avengers: Infinity War Part 1 $485m/$1.5b

2018: Black Panther $230m/$530m

2018: Miss Marvel $225m/$525m

2019: Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 $550m/1.7b.

 

They're good.

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I think IW1 and GOTG2 will both be closer to 1 billion than they will be to Iron Man.

The days of A-list Marvel characters making only 600 m WW are over.

I was talking DOM. WW IW1 will do over 1B. 

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Basically I think the future of success for Marvel depends on Civil War, it is a huge story arch, with marvel's darkest promise so far for a film, it has to deliver with audiences and critics, it has to be what they are advertising it as. even if it's a huge financial success, if it fails with audience or even seen as just good. I'm 90% certain it will mark the decline of The MCU as we know it. 

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I'm also worried about Black Panther. I want it to be a critical and fiscal success but it might be hard sell for general audiences.

How many movies with a black main character are a global hit without Will Smith?

 

Depends on how you look on it:

 

e.g. Blade 1 and 2 were not expensive, had an 'adult' rating (in some regions/countries legally binding), got released in a time CBM-based movies didn't make tons of money, also in a time far less countries got a cinema release for CBMs... and still made money enough for a part 3. Via DVDs.... reached then a bit of a cult status too (no idea how younger ppl percieve it or if that changed after part 3)

 

Sidney Poitier and Denzel Washington were in their prime times a magnet, at least for the people I know.

 

About the thread starting question:

I do not feel 'worried' before I do not know the budget, who is even getting how much of screen-time, the general story, some general feeling for the story.... like if it is creating the 'need' to re-watch the movies (up-lifting feeling at the end of the movie tends to increase the re-watch count) = tons of tons of details. Including trailers...

 

Way too much depends IMHO on e.g. the quality of the last 'big' release too (the next ones always hurts), also depending on the region, how humor is even percieved (what is humor varies in different cultures) and details like cliches....

 

The MCU movies seem to reach also more female audience then a lot of other CBMs.... that I think can be also an important factor.

Cultural buzz can influence sometimes the buzz of the younger crowds too and so on.

 

Action, pace, logical development of the acts, quality of the creatives, quality of the advertising (e.g. I think what I have seen of Ant-Mans wasn't that great)... so many details people look out for, what the hype idealises for the moment....

 

exchange rates, crisis, China giving bad release dates, especially if another movie already made 'too' much money in that year or ....

way too early for any doubts or hopes I think

 

The main point to me is, I think it is also 'crazy' to push expectations too high, the 'disappointing' buzz seems also to influence especially the 1st weeks reaction and even the BO to a degree.

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Well every film They've made is Fresh on RT (even TIH barely) and all expect TIH were box office successes so kind of hard to be worried right now, doesn't mean I will like them all though.

 

My Predictions:

 

2015: Ant-Man $225m/$550m

2016: Captain America: Civil War $425m/$1.125b

2016: Doctor Strange $220m/$520m

2017: GotG 2 $370m/$950m

2017: Spider-Man $200m/$650m

2017: Thor: Ragnarok: $250m/$700m

2018: Avengers: Infinity War Part 1 $485m/$1.5b

2018: Black Panther $230m/$530m

2018: Miss Marvel $225m/$525m

2019: Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 $550m/1.7b.

 

They're good.

 

All introducing a new character / world movies are too high IMHO. One, a few or all of them can get higher, not excluding the possibility, but not as a starting point.

 

I think Civil War will have to be very very good to counteract the reception of AoU and might still be earn less as it would deserve based on that

 

Avengers 3 part 1 I also think might be a bit too high, two parters we know do often not that well, maybe still some reacting cautiosly bcs the name Avengers is in the title, depends a lot on the advertising and then WOM... I think

 

Re-watch 'hunger' is IMHO a lot more important for the MCU than a few seem to be aware of. A good, uplifted feeling, varying genre-combinations,... is not only needed for the BO of the movie actual in the cinema, but also to help support the general interest for the next ones

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