Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated answers:

 

1. What will Heart of the Sea gross OW? $11,005,000

2. What will Legend gross this weekend? 301k

3. What will Krampus' percentage drop be? 50.8%

4. What will Creed gross on Friday? $2,975,000

5. What will Peanuts' Friday increase be? 197.7% 

 

6. What will Macbeth's PTA be this weekend? $2,324

7. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Secret in Their Eyes and Love the Coopers? 137k

8. What will Spectre's total be by end of Sunday? $190,767,660

9. What will Hunger Games gross on Sunday? $2,923,000

10. How many positions will separate Spotlight and Victor Frankenstein? 16 (when including both movies)

 

11. What will be the gross difference between Good Dinosaur's Friday and Saturday? $2,634,000

12. What will Night Before's percentage drop be this weekend? 22.5%

13. What will Trumbo's Sunday percentage drop be? Dailies not released

14. How much will The Martian's gross differ from the film that finishes the weekend in 10th place? 575k

15. What will Jem and the Holograms gross this weekend? (I want to keep tradition of having the one question everyone gets right  ) BOM isn't listing it but about $350.

 

Placements:

 

2. ITHOTS

4. Creed

7. The Night Before

9. Spotlight

12. Love the Coopers

[That One Girl]

Messed up on Legend, I thought it'd be in more theaters than it was.

[Infernus]

Man, not a single placement right for me... But its all really close. With even some little, but favourable, ups and downs I may get 4 or even all 5. 

[MovieMan89]

Interesting week. Depending on actuals I could get closest on as many as 4 questions, but then I kinda bombed on the rest. I don't think most people realized the theater counts for Macbeth and Legend this week based on the answers, but worked out well for me. 

[Infernus]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Interesting week. Depending on actuals I could get closest on as many as 4 questions, but then I kinda bombed on the rest. I don't think most people realized the theater counts for Macbeth and Legend this week based on the answers, but worked out well for me. 

 

Yeah, same here  I think I nailed Creed's Friday and MJ2's Sunday too. And seems like I am second closest on gross difference between coopers and secret in their eyes and on diff in gross between Martian and 10th place.

 

Still it looks like the guys who usually win the Part 2's - Filmovie, darkelf, glassfairy etc. - will be the winners here too.

[MovieMan89]

Second weekend in a row it looks like I will just barely miss getting the ranking questions perfect. Damn you Chris Hemsworth and your spectacular bombage! 

[WrathOfHan]

For SOTM 5, presales have crossed 100M and could reach 120+: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-advance-849156

 

Mockingjay was the highest everyone went, and considering it only needs 2M more to pass that I don't see how it won't happen. Everyone who answered is a winner!

 

Chasmmi: +20,000

darkelf: +20,000

damienroc: +20,000

Jajang: +20,000

kayumanggi: +20,000

MikeKaye42: +20,000

MovieMan89: +20,000

sakskidz: +20,000

Telemachos: +20,000

Blankments: +15,000

misafeco: +10,000

WrathOfHan: +10,000

grey ghost: +7,000

DAJK: +5,000

Filmovie: +5,000

Exxdee: +5,000

glassfairy: +5,000

Infernus: +5,000

ThatOneGuy: +5,000

Wrath: +5,000

 

 

[Infernus]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

For SOTM 5, presales have crossed 100M and could reach 120+: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-advance-849156

 

Mockingjay was the highest everyone went, and considering it only needs 2M more to pass that I don't see how it won't happen. Everyone who answered is a winner!

 

Chasmmi: +20,000

darkelf: +20,000

damienroc: +20,000

Jajang: +20,000

kayumanggi: +20,000

MikeKaye42: +20,000

MovieMan89: +20,000

sakskidz: +20,000

Telemachos: +20,000

Blankments: +15,000

misafeco: +10,000

WrathOfHan: +10,000

grey ghost: +7,000

DAJK: +5,000

Filmovie: +5,000

Exxdee: +5,000

glassfairy: +5,000

Infernus: +5,000

ThatOneGuy: +5,000

Wrath: +5,000

 

 

 

Well, its still not confirmed. They are saying thats what their 'sources' tell them. It may still be an exaggerated number due to the hype train. I would wait till disney reports a figure themselves.

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, Infernus said:

 

Well, its still not confirmed. They are saying thats what their 'sources' tell them. It may still be an exaggerated number due to the hype train. I would wait till disney reports a figure themselves.

 

No, it's basically official. If it's written up like this by The Hollywood Reporter, it's as official as we're going to get.

[chasmmi]

Ok I am pretty much back now, Hopefully may get this scoring done tomorrow (24 hours from now) unless somebody beats me to it.

 

(remember the winner of the upcoming week, will get to create an SOTM  )

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated answers:

 

1. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $150M? Yes

2. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $200M? 2000 Yes

3. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $250M? 3000 No

4. Will Star Wars' OW exceed $300M? No

5. Will Star Wars' Opening Day (including previews) exceed $100M? 2000 Yes

6. Will Star Wars' Opening Day (including previews) exceed 33.33% of it's OW total? Yes

 

7. Will Alvin open to more than $15M? No

8. Will Alvin's OW be at least 5% of Star Wars' OW? 2000 Yes

9. Will Sisters Open in the top 3? Yes

10. Will Alvin and Sisters' OW combine to more than $25M? Yes

11. Will Star Wars' OW exceed 85% of the entire weekend gross of all films? No

12. Will Star Wars' OW exceed 90% of the entire weekend gross of all films? 3000 No

 

13. Will Heart of the Sea drop less than 65%? No

14. Will Hunger Games stay in the top 5? 2000 Yes

15. Will Creed have the best drop in the top 10 (excluding anything that may be expanding)? Yes

16. Will Extraction have a PTA above $2500? ?

17. Will The Good Dinosaur have a Friday Increase of at least 190% No

18. Will Star Wars' Thursday Previews total exceed the total gross of 2nd to 5th places' 3 day weekend? 3000 Yes

 

19. Will Chipmunks have a better Sunday drop than Peanuts? Yes

20. Will The Night Before drop less than 35% this weekend? No

21. Name any one film in the top 15 that drops more than 70% (or state none)? 3000 The Night Before

22. Will The Good Dinosaur cross $100M? 2000 No

23. Will Mojin: The Lost Legend enter in the top 18? No

24. Will Peanuts have a weekend above $1M? No

 

 

25. Will Star Wars cross $400M WW by the end of Sunday? Yes

26. Will Star Wars cross $500M WW by the end of Sunday? 3000 Yes

27. Will Brooklyn end the weekend with 400k of Spotlight? Yes

28. Will Frankenstein have a weekend below 125k? 2000 ?

29. Name the film that finishes 4th this weekend? Mockingjay

30. Were there enough Star Wars questions in this week's section? NO

 

Part 2

 

1. Fine! What will the OW actually be? 238M

2. What will Alvin and Sisters' combined OW be? $27,820,000

3. What will Hunger Games total gross be by sunday? $254,438,774

 

Part 3.

 

1. Star Wars

3. Sisters

5. Creed

8. ITHOTS

10. Bajirao Mastani

12. Spectre

 

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by WrathOfHan

[Infernus]

Looks like I got 25 out of 30 in Part 1 (Still can't believe what happened to Night Before, even after taking into account the theater drop) and was really close to all 3 of Part 2's (unfortunately it doesn't matter ). The placements failed me once again though. I foresaw dilwale getting in the top 12 but forgot about Bajirao. I also had MJ at 4th and creed at 5th till the last moment until I suddenly got convinced TGD would benefit from Star Wars and put it at 4th position (really sad what happened to it btw). 

[WrathOfHan]

Some takeaways:

 

I did well with this week's questions, I have at least 20 correct if estimates hold and could go higher when we have answers for 16 and 28.

Peanuts' drop this weekend killed it's chances at 130M and I'm going to lose points for the DOM total  

TGD continues to screw us all.

SOTM 1 should be ready to score in a few weeks. The Walk has been done for a while but Pan and Sicario's final totals are nearly complete and The Martian should be ready to score the weekend after New Year's.

[WrathOfHan]

Ended up doing the scores for SW's OW now, any changes I'll update the post tomorrow: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20537-chasmmis-winter-2015-game-top-7-domestic-opening-weekend-standings/?do=findComment&comment=2312468

 

MovieMan89 is the only person to gain points, and he was within 2.5M! Myself, DAJK, Tree, Jajang, and Panda are the only ones that will lose nothing. If it adjusts down, Wrath and Alfred will lose nothing. Some of your predictions were over 100M off!

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ended up doing the scores for SW's OW now, any changes I'll update the post tomorrow: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20537-chasmmis-winter-2015-game-top-7-domestic-opening-weekend-standings/?do=findComment&comment=2312468

 

MovieMan89 is the only person to gain points, and he was within 2.5M! Myself, DAJK, Tree, Jajang, and Panda are the only ones that will lose nothing. If it adjusts down, Wrath and Alfred will lose nothing. Some of your predictions were over 100M off!

Wow, now I kinda don't want it to go up to 245m+ in the actuals.  But I think it is. 

Edited December 21, 2015 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wow, now I kinda don't want it to go up to 245m+ in the actuals.  But I think it is. 

You're still getting the bonus 10k  

[chasmmi]

Sorry for the lack of marking last week's questions, flu has felled me a fair bit.

 

Will get the weekly questions for this week done now (ish)  and will hope to be alive enough in the coming couple of days to grade everything together when things are a bit less foggy when I try to think and do math type stuff.

[chasmmi]

Week 11 is up.

[Infernus]

1 hour ago, Jar Jar Chasmmi said:

Sorry for the lack of marking last week's questions, flu has felled me a fair bit.

 

Will get the weekly questions for this week done now (ish)  and will hope to be alive enough in the coming couple of days to grade everything together when things are a bit less foggy when I try to think and do math type stuff.

 

Is it allowed for others to score? I or someone else may do it, then, whoever has the time and will, if you don't feel like doing it. 

 

Oh and also - Get well soon

Edited December 21, 2015 by Infernus

[WrathOfHan]

Get better soon Chasmmi.