Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[chasmmi]

Last Week's answers:

 

1. Will Star Wars gross more than $100M this weekend? Yes

2. Will Star Wars gross more than $130m this weekend? 3000 Yes

3. Will the 5 biggest new entries' combined grosses exceed 50% of Star Wars' weekend? Yes

4. What will be the highest grossing new entry (new, not expanding)? 2000 Daddy's Home

5. Will Sisters drop more than 15% this weekend? No

 

6. Will at least 4 films increase this weekend? 2000 No

7. Will Point Break open to more than $9.5M? Yes

8. Will Good Dinosaur stay in the top 10? No

9. Will Hunger Games stay above Creed? Yes

10. Will Hateful 8 gross at least 10 times the gross of Revenant this weekend? 3000 No

 

11. Will the Big Short Increase into the top 3? 2000 No

12. Will Concussion open higher than Joy? No

13. Will Alvin stay in the top 5? 3000 Yes

14. Will Star Wars' PTA be higher than Revenant's? No

15. Will I have marked the previous 2 weeks' questions before Xmas hits? Jajang did

 

10/15 - 2000

11/15 - 3000

12/15 - 5000

13/15 - 7000

14/15 - 10000

15/15 - 15000

 

Part 2

 

1. What will be the difference in gross between 1st and 2nd this weekend? 5000 $110,460,000

2. What will Krampus' Xmas Day gross be? 5000 875,470k 

3. What will Concussion and Point Break's combined Saturday gross be? 5000 $7,099,000

4. What will Alvin's percentage change be this weekend (please specify drop or increase)? 5000 -8%

5. What will Hateful 8's PTA be this weekend? 5000 $46,107

 

Part 3

 

2. Daddy's Home

4. Sisters

6. Big Short

9. Mockingjay

12. The Good Dinosaur

15. Bajairo Mastani

 

[chasmmi]

Weekly results (I think, this damn flu won't go away and now it's removing my hearing also which is annoying)

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Exxdee	22000	6000	8000	36000
damienRoc	20000	0	13000	33000
filmovie	20000	0	8000	28000
misafeco	20000	5000	8000	28000
Blankments	19000	5000	4000	28000
Dajk	25000	0	2000	27000
kayumanggi	22000	0	4000	26000
bcf26	16000	6000	4000	26000
jajang	20000	0	2000	22000
Kalo	19000	0	2000	21000
Avi	13000	5000	2000	20000
Darkelf	20000	0	0	20000
Wrathofhan	17000	0	2000	19000
Wrath	16000	0	2000	18000
background	15000	0	2000	17000
infernus	14000	0	2000	16000
Telemachos	11000	0	4000	15000
Chasmmi	11000	0	2000	13000
Grey Ghost	11000	0	2000	13000
MikeKaye42	8000	0	0	8000

[chasmmi]

Logic puzzle for all of you:

 

How am I apparently so awesome that predicting weekend box office actions about a week in advance that usually at least 30% of these questions go closer to the wire than anybody would like them too, yet I am also so bad at this that I am consistently coming near last every week since thanksgiving and before

[chasmmi]

 

SOTM is up too

[BadAtGender]

Considering I completely forgot to answer one of the questions, I'll call this a successful week.

[JJ-8]

On 12/27/2015 at 6:16 PM, Exxdee said:

couldn't PM, but I should have 5,000 for SOTM 5 (the Star Wars Presales one), I answered Spectre. sorry, but thanks for the scoring

 

apologies... fixing it

 

[JJ-8]

Updated Scores

 

Includes Week 11 & fixed SOTM 5 scores (mainly for Exxdee who has now shot out in front)

 

 

#	User	Pre- season Entry	GRAND TOTAL	PreSeason Total	SOTM Total	SOTM 5	Weekly's Total	Week 11
1	Exxdee	YES	354,000	10000	46000	5000	298000	36000
2	darkelf	YES	335,000	10000	51000	20000	274000	20000
3	Infernus	YES	329,000	10000	33000	5000	286000	16000
4	Telemachos	YES	325,000	10000	43000	20000	272000	15000
5	DamienRoc	YES	316,000	10000	48000	20000	258000	33000
6	DAJK	YES	302,000	10000	18000	5000	274000	27000
7	Filmovie	YES	299,000	0	35000	5000	264000	28000
8	Movieman89	YES	296,000	10000	49000	20000	237000	0
9	chasmmi	YES	277,000	10000	42000	20000	225000	13000
10	thatoneguy (Background Char)	YES	277,000	10000	40000	5000	227000	17000
11	glassfairy	YES	275,000	10000	40000	5000	225000	0
12	kayumanggi	YES	274,000	0	21000	20000	253000	26000
13	grey ghost	YES	270,000	10000	39000	7000	221000	13000
14	WrathofHan	YES	269,000	10000	14000	10000	245000	19000
15	misafeco	YES	266,000	10000	8000	10000	248000	28000
16	Wrath	YES	266,000	10000	26000	5000	230000	18000
17	Jajang (JJ-8)	YES	260,000	10000	22000	20000	228000	22000
18	Blankments (Blan Solo)	YES	259,000	10000	10000	15000	239000	28000
19	MikeKaye42	YES	207,000	10000	15000	20000	182000	8000
20	avi (Sakskidz)	YES	186,000	10000	-8000	20000	184000	20000
21	bcf26	YES	146,000	10000	8000	0	128000	26000
22	Kalo	YES	139,000	10000	8000	0	121000	21000
23	99 Trees	YES	49,000	10000	-3000	0	42000	0
24	Alfred	YES	39,000	10000	5000	0	24000	0
25	BastienGiot	-	29,000	0	-3000	0	32000	0
26	Baumer	YES	7,000	10000	-3000	0	0	0
27	laguy03	YES	7,000	10000	-3000	0	0	0
28	The Panda	YES	7,000	10000	-3000	0	0	0

[That One Girl]

Damn, tied with Chasmmi!

[chasmmi]

On ‎31‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 1:50 PM, ThatOneGuy said:

Damn, tied with Chasmmi!

 

What's that supposed to mean?  

 

And hey, somebody needs to fail alongside me

 

[chasmmi]

Current top 15 as of December 27th (thanks to Laguy's thread):

 

Current Top 15 Films of Winter (as of 12.27.15):

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $540,058,914
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685
3. Spectre - $196,274,955
4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788
5. The Good Dinosaur - $105,350,933
6. Creed - $96,141,653
7. Goosebumps - $78,585,158
8. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589
9. The Night Before - $42,762,601
10. Krampus - $40,458,690
11. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $39,848,982
12. Daddy’s Home - $38,740,203
13. Sisters - $37,455,995
14. Crimson Peak - $31,090,320
15. The Last Witch Hunter - $27,356,090
 

With the game only having about 7/8 weeks left, let's extrapolate which films stand a shot at the top 15...

 

Creed will have passed 100M by the end of the weekend I expect so it is down to 7th and below to fight for the other positions I think. Top 6 are safe.

 

Starting with films still in cinemas (and making money worth thinking about):

 

Chipmunks - Now at 52.3M and showing good legs as the only kids film of the holidays (sorry Dino, you are done  ). It will be well past 60 after this weekend is done and so Bridge of Spies is a done deal I would say with goosebumps also about 75% likely.

 

Daddy's Home - Already at 58.8M, Going to pass goosebumps by Monday even if it crashes this weekend I expect. Looks locked for top 15, only question is which position it ends.

 

Sisters - Now at 46.8m, this opened higher than Alvin but is dropping harder, especially with Daddy's Home competition. I don't see this catching Goosebumps, touch and go if it passes Spies IMO.

 

Joy, Concussion, Big Short and Point Break are all below Sisters in the Dailies and are also at least 20M behind its total to date. Don't see any of them passing 60M now.

 

So let's see how things stand with the current releases expanded (I know there are technically 2 more films in release to discuss ;)...

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $9B
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685
3. Spectre - $196,274,955
4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788
5. The Good Dinosaur - $115M?

6. Daddy's Home - $110?

7. Creed - $110M?

8. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M?
9. Goosebumps - $78,585,158
10. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589
11. Sisters - $68-70M?
12. Joy - 57M
13. Big Short - 45M

14. Night Before - 42.7M

15. Krampus - 40M

 

Right How about Revenant and Hateful 8?

 

Hateful 8 is just going wide now and has already passed 10M as of Wednesday. BO.com has it hitting 42.7M by the end of the weekend after a 25M 3 day weekend. Even if we cut that down to 20M it's going to be at about 37.5M and a multiplier from that low W/E figure even as low as Kill Bill Vol 1 (lowest non-grindhouse multy) which was an April release puts Hateful 8 finishing at 78-79M so this is passing Goosebumps at a worst case scenario.

 

Revenant is harder to call right now as it is only in 4 theatres still but this has a mighty impressive PTA and DiCaprio. it's hard to see this not break 100M.

 

So how is that list looking?

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $47t
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685
3. Spectre - $196,274,955
4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788
5. The Good Dinosaur - $115M?

6. Daddy's Home - $110?

7. Hateful 8 - 110M?

8. Creed - $110M?

9. The Revenant - 100M?

10. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M?
11. Goosebumps - $78,585,158
12. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589
13. Sisters - $68-70M?
14. Joy - 57M
15. Big Short - 45M

 

Phew this is getting long, well done if still reading this. So now the bar is set at a minimum of Sisters/Bridge of Spies I think with just the new releases to go which are: (I will bold films that have at least a shot of passing the above Sisters total [IMO  ])

 

The Forest - not making $68M+

The Masked Saint - not making $68M+

 

13 Hours - BO.com has it making 60M, I think it has an outside shot at 70M but just an outside one

Norm of the North - not making $68M+

Ride Along 2 - 70M is the floor for this it seems. Probably beating Goosebumps at worst.

 

The 5th Wave - not making $68M+

The Boy - not making $68M+

Dirty Grandpa - BO.com says 42M, but being the first comedy

 

Fifty Shades of Black - not making $68M+

Finest Hours - not making $68M+

Jane got a gun - not making $68M+

Kung Fu Panda - Something has to go very wrong for this to miss crossing 80 or even 90M as a floor.

 

Choice - not making $68M+

Hail Caeser - not making $68M+

PAPW/Zombies - not making $68M+

 

Deadpool - Personally I think there's more chance this passes Sisters in its OW than not passing it at all even with just 2 weekends.

How to be Single - not making $68M+

Zoolander 2 - I don't see this getting to $68M in 10 days, sorry

 

So in my eyes there are a total of 5 unreleased films that could pass Sisters/BOS. This puts my projected top 15 at the end of the game at:

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $1.7Gaz
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685
3. Spectre - $196,274,955

4. Kung Fu panda 3 - 135M?

5. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788
6. The Good Dinosaur - $115M?

7. Deadpool - $115M?

8. Daddy's Home - $110?

9. Hateful 8 - 110M?

10. Creed - $110M?

11. Ridealong 2 - 100M?

12. The Revenant - 100M?

13. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M?
14. Goosebumps - $78,585,158
15. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589
 

16. Sisters - $68-70M?

17. 13 Hours - 65M

18. Dirty Grandpa - 60M

19. Joy - $57M

20. Zoolander - 50M
 

[chasmmi]

Disclaimer for the above:

 

I am very bad at this

[chasmmi]

Ok let's look at some preseason questions:

 

A generous risk-free question to start you off: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game:

A: 100M
B: 200M
C: 300M
D: 400M

Each correctly predicted film scores you 10,000 points, get all four correct and receive 10,000 bonus points for 50k total. (This is the only preseason question where there is no penalty for being wrong so enjoy it).

 

CANNOT BE SCORED

 

1) Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the winter domestically:

1) Goosebumps
2) Krampus
3) Creed - Creed has this sewn up, but gross bonus is hard to place still. looking at about 110M+?
4) Concussion

Answer correctly: 10,000 points
Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points
Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus.


2) Tell me which of these will be the lowest grossing film of the winter domestically:

1) Point Break
2) The Nut Job 2 - wasn't released so players who guess this get abstain points.
3) Victor Frankenstein - This is locked in now and the gross is $5.77M so anyone prediction $15.77 or less gets the bonus.
4) The Last Witch Hunter

Answer correctly: 10,000 points
Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points

Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus.


3) Will at least 3 films make more than 300M domestically by the end of the game? Waiting on that pride and prejudice breakout... nope, this is a NO

Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points


4) Will animated films combine to make more than 500M domestically by the end of the game? (Chipmunks is not considered animated here)
Good Dino (110) + Peanuts (128) means KFP3 needs to make 250M in 3 weeks to avoid a NO
Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points


5) Will at least 2 films make more than 140M OW domestic? Deadpool  Yeah this is done too, NO

Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points


6) Will any film in the top 15 domestic have its domestic total outgrossed by its Chinese total? I need to track China in a bit and check up on this question so far. Of course KFP3 is the big factor here if it is currently a no.

Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points


7) Will at least two months’ OW records be broken by the end of the game? (This is 3 day only) This probably all comes down to whether Deadpool does something crazy.

Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points


8) Will at least 2 of the 5 top grossing sequels/prequels/reboots become the top grossing film of their franchise by the end of the game? Star Wars is done, Can Creed leg its way past Rocky 4? Can KFP3 hit 215M, can Deadpool pass 180M? There are too many outside bets to call this yet.

Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points


9) Will at least 5 different films in the top 15 be nominated for Oscars in either Acting, Best Song, Best Director, Best Screenplay or Best Animation or Best Film? We find out later

Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points


10) Will the combined gross of the top 2 films domestic exceed 1 Billion Dollars? tough one  this will happen by Monday at worst.

Answer correctly: 20,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points
State that you abstain: 4,000 points


11) Will 300M dollars be closer to Kung Fu Panda 3’s Domestic total or its Chinese total? no idea yet

Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points


12) Will any foreign film gross more money (in dollars) in its local market than the 15th highest grosser domestically does in the USA? This will be fun to research. Has any film made at least $80M in its local market. I'm assuming I severely underestimated Chinese winter releases with this one  

Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points


13) Will any film be pulled from the schedules at any point during the game due to fear of war with North Korea? Come on Kim, you're slacking! Yeah this is points for everyone  

Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points


14) Will any film opening in less than 500 theatres in its opening week, go on to gross more than 200M dollars domestically? All down to Revenant breaking out now I think.

Answer correctly: 25,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points


15) Which combination of films will gross the most amount of money domestically during the game? Unless KFP3 does $850M...

1) Mockingjay Pt 2, Bridge of Spies, The Night Before, In Heart of the Sea - about $425M and done
2) Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, The Hateful Eight, Krampus - about $340M and counting
3) Crimson Peak, Peanuts, Kung Fu Panda 3, Goosebumps, - about $210 and counting
4) Star Wars, The Revenant, The Danish Girl, Zoolander 2 - about $650 and counting

Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points


16) Which combination of films will gross the smallest amount of money during the game? 4 is out of the reckoning, it's going to hit $200M+, it's down to 1 or 2, so the question is will Ride Along and the rest of Point Break make at least $45M more than PAPW/Zombies and the rest of Alvin? I think we can't call this yet. 

1) Burnt, Macbeth, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies - at about $68M and counting
2) Rock the Kasbah, Victor Frankenstein, Point Break, Ride Along 2 - at about 23M and counting
3) Jem and the Holograms, Sisters, The Nut Job 2, 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benzhagi - counts as abstaining
4) Trumbo, Scout Guide to Apocalypse, Deadpool, Daddy’s Home - at 112.4 and counting

Answer correctly: 30,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 5,000 points

[chasmmi]

So that means, when I have the time to do it, the following Preseason questions can be scored now:
 

2, 3, 5, 10, 13, 15 (and probably 12 if I go look in the China Box Office Thread).

[chasmmi]

Do not want to score this one until every question can be answered but current state of it is...

 

And Finally… The Return of the Jedi-centric questions:


1) Will Star Wars Gross over 400M domestically? YES
2) Will Star Wars Gross over 500M domestically? YES
3) Will Star Wars Gross over 600M domestically? YES
4) Will Star Wars Gross over 1B Worldwide? YES
5) Will Star Wars Gross over 1.5B Worldwide? YES


6) Will Star Wars finish top of all 3 main prediction charts? YES
7) Will 350M dollars end up being closer to Star Wars’ Opening Weekend total than its final domestic total? OPENING WEEKEND
8) If both are released before February 5th, will Star Wars’ China total be within 150M of Kung Fu Pandas’ (over or under) UNKNOWN
9) Will Star Wars end up being one of the three highest rated Star Wars films on RottenTomatoes at the end of the game? YES
10) Will Star Wars have a domestic weekend increase at any point during the game? NOT YET


11) Will Star Wars get nominated for at least 3 Oscars? UNKNOWN
12) Will Star Wars manage at least 3 domestic weekends that are higher than Avatar’s comparative weekend totals in 2009/2010? IF IT MAKES 68.5m THIS WEEKEND THEN THIS IS YES
13) Will Star Wars manage at least 7 domestic weekends that are higher than Titanic’s comparative weekend totals in 1997/1998? NEEDS TO STAY ABOVE 30m FOR 5 MORE WEEKENDS INCLUDING THIS ONE
14) Will Star Wars gross more domestically in December than it does in January? IF THIS ENDS UP BEING NO  
15) Will Star Wars be number 1 at the domestic Box Office for at least 5 weeks (consecutive or non-consecutive) NEEDS 2 MORE AFTER THIS ONE


16) Will Star Wars’ combined total dollar gross from the UK and Australia exceed its domestic Opening Weekend total? I'M JUST ASSUMING I DON'T NEED TO CHECK THIS
17) Will Star Wars achieve more than 10 Million admissions in South Korea? NOT GOING TO GET CLOSE
18) Will China account for at least 20% of Star Wars’ worldwide total if released before February 1st? IT'G GOING TO NEED TO MAKE CLOSE TO 400M MINIMUM
19) Will Star Wars’ opening day (including previews) be enough for it to make the top 15 domestic regardless of its subsequent box office? YES
20) Will Star Wars still be in the domestic top 10 at the end of the game? UNKNOWN

[Infernus]

Yeah 12 of Preason is done. Mojin is close to 200m already.

[Plain Old Tele]

6 minutes ago, Infernus said:

Yeah 12 of Preason is done. Mojin is close to 200m already.

 

Foreign films don't count, right? Just domestic ones that're released overseas.

[Infernus]

6 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

Foreign films don't count, right? Just domestic ones that're released overseas.

 

But the question itself is specifically asking for foreign film...

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, Infernus said:

 

But the question itself is specifically asking for foreign film...

 

Never mind, I was thinking about a different question. Carry on.  

[Infernus]

I thought I did really bad in the preason questions but looks like I did ok. I just got wrong in nearly all the questions which need optimism for a Yes for I was 'mahnamahna' level optimistic and everything but Star Wars (which, it turns out, is the only one where my prediction in all three charts was below the average prediction ) flopped or didn't breakout..

[WrathOfHan]

Looking at my personal scores:

 

F:

 

1. CORRECT (won't get a bonus unless Creed can get to 140M lol) 10k

2. INCORRECT 5k

3. ABSTAIN 8k

4. INCORRECT -2k

5. INCORRECT -12k

10. CORRECT 8k

12. ABSTAIN 13k

13. CORRECT 38k

15. CORRECT 68k

16. INCORRECT 43k

 

Total points from F so far: 43K

 

Wow, that's a hell lot better than I expected.

 

Star Wars:

 

1. CORRECT 5k

2. CORRECT 10k

3. CORRECT 15k

4. CORRECT 20k

5. CORRECT 25k

6. CORRECT 30k

7. CORRECT 35k

9. CORRECT 40k

12. CORRECT 45k

14. CORRECT 50k

17. CORRECT 55k

19. CORRECT 60k

 

103k total combined for the questions that can be answered, should help soften the blow for the gigantic losses on DOM grosses.