JJ-8 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I might get some time later my time today to score last week. And update things. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Jesus, KFP3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Telemachos said: Jesus, KFP3. I'm really glad I stayed abstained on that SOTM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 (edited) 16 hours ago, Telemachos said: Jesus, KFP3. The good thing is that its performing so much worse than our expectations (Seeing most answers its clear almost everyone was expecting an OW above or very close to 50m) that most of the answers we gave trying to be wrong would end up being right, which would mean the SOTM will still end up being profitable to us . Edited January 31, 2016 by Infernus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Everyone of us, but one, who participated gave the same answers to the Yes/No Questions. All but three chose the same options as in the following. 1. Will KFP3 open higher than Kung Fu Panda 2? (47.65M)? NO 2. Will KFP3 have a better multiplier than Goosebumps by the end of the game (currently 3.38)? YES 3. Will KFP3's domestic total have passed Shallow Hal's worldwide total gross before the end of the Game($141.06M)? NO 4. Which of the following films' total Domestic gross will KFP3's OD be closest to: A: Tenacious D: Pick of Destiny ($8.33M) B: Envy ($13.56M) C: Saving Silverman ($19.4M)? 5. Will KFP3's second weekend beat High Fidelity's OW (27.28m)? NO 6. KFP3's China gross will be closest to: A: Shark Tale Domestic Total (160.86M) B: Gulliver's Travels WW total ($237.38m), C: King Kong Foreign gross (332.43M) D: Kung Fu Panda's foreign gross (416.31M) All of those 3 gave option A for Q6 and one of them gave C for Q5. Anyways, if the OD remains below 10.9m, we (the players who answered as above) will have 4 of these 6 definitely right. Only Q6 will definitely be wrong. Q2 (atleast 3.38 multi by 21 Feb) could still go either way although chances are better now due to smaller OW. So We (again, the same) can get either 18k or 10k. As for the remaining three (@Blankments, @DAJK and @JJ-8) they could all get Q6 correct too (as long as it makes less than 200m in China). Blanks will get Q4 and Q5 wrong though. So Blanks will get either 10k or -2k while the other two can get either 30k or 18k or 10k. So only Blanks can lose any points. The rest of us will fare better than the abstainers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 That's comforting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Estimated answers: 1. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $35M? Yes 2. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $42.5M? 3000 No 3. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $50M? No 4. Will 50 shades of Black open to within 25% of Jack Black's weekend total (yes this technically includes Goosebumps ) No 5. Will Alvin drop more than 62% this weekend? No 6. Will the Finest Hours Open ahead of the Revenant? 2000 No 7. Will Star Wars' weekend total be at least $2M ahead of the 6th placed film? Yes 8. Will Norm of the North stay above the Big Short? No 9. Will Dirty Grandpa remain ahead of both the Boy and 5th wave next weekend? 3000 No 10. Will Jane got a Gun make at least $1.5M this weekend? No 11. Will 13 hours cross 40M by the end of the weekend? Yes 12. Will at least 3 Oscar Nominated films (any category, any position) increase this weekend? No, but Brooklyn only dropped .3% so it could change with actuals 13. Will Star wars have a higher PTA than Revenant? 2000 Yes 14. Will the 5th wave have made half its budget ($38M according to BOM) back by the end of the weekend? Yes 15. Will ride along 2 remain in the top 6 this weekend? Yes 16. Will any non-animated film increase at least 85% on Saturday? Yes 17. Will The Hateful 8 have a bigger Sunday drop than The Forest? 3000 No 18. Will Spotlight finish 16th or higher this weekend? Yes 19. Will Carol finish above the Danish Girl this weekend? 2000 Yes 20. Will Daddy's Home drop more than 53%? No 21. Did you know there was apparently an Ip Man 1 and 2 that happened at some point? Yes 14/21 - 2000 15/21 - 3000 16/21 - 4000 17/21 - 5000 18/21 - 6000 19/21 - 8000 20/21 - 10000 21/21 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will Kung Fu Panda's OW be? 41M 2. What will be the combined Saturday of 50 shades and finest hours $6,715,539 3. What will be the total weekend gross of ALL the films reported on BOM with a one word title? $6,571,290 Part 3 2. The Revenant 5. Ride Along 2 7. Dirty Grandpa 9. Fifty Shades 12. The Big Short 15. Spotlight 3/6 - 2000 4/6 - 5000 5/6 - 8000 6/6 - 12000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 (edited) Good week for me, I got 14 correct (15 if #12 changes to yes) and one placement for 22k total Edited January 31, 2016 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 So the only time I get questions right is when I try to get them wrong, got it As SOTMs are so fun and there is likely only time to fit in a maximum of one more after this one, here is either the final or the penultimate SOTM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wow, this one could change the race significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Could we get a scoring update before we start betting our points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 4 hours ago, DamienRoc said: Could we get a scoring update before we start betting our points? Worst case scenario, I will have the weekly scores and stuff up to date by Tuesday evening. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Right..... Week 15 Answers (ie. the week that the 5th wave opened) 1. Which new opener will make the most this weekend? Dirty Grandpa 2. Will at least 1 new entry enter into the top 3? 2000 No 3. Will the Big Short drop less than 8% this weekend? No 4. Will Norm of the North have the biggest drop amongst all animated (including Alvin) films this weekend? No 5. Will the Revanant finally hit the number 1 spot this weekend? 3000 Yes 6. Will Sisters remain in the top 10 this weekend? 3000 No 7. Will the forest finish above Norm of the North? No 8. Will Star Wars cross 875M total by the end of the weekend? Yes 9. Will Spotlight finish above Brooklyn this weekend? 2000 No 10. Will any film in the top 12 drop more than 62%? Yes (Ride Along 2; Sisters) 11. Will Monster Hunt have a PTA above $6000? No 12. Will any film increase 200% or more on Friday? 2000 Yes (Norm of the North) 13. Will any film decrease more than 47% on Sunday? Yes (All of the top 4) 14. Which film in the top 8 will have the highest PTA? 3000 The Revenant (4314) 15. Do you miss the lack of bear films being released this weekend? WTF everyone gets this one right.... 10/15 - 2000 11/15 - 3000 12/15 - 4000 13/15 - 6000 14/15 - 8000 15/15 - 10000 Part 2 1. What will the 3 highest new openers combined OW be? 5000 $32,216,623 (32.217m) 2. What will Creed's total be by end of Saturday? 5000 $108,240,150 (108.24m) 3. What will Ride Along make on Sunday? 5000 $2,952,650 (2.953m) Part 3 1. The Revenant 3. Ride Along 2 5. The Boy 8. Daddy's Home 10. The Big Short 13. The Forest 16. Spotlight 2000 each plus... 4/7 - 2000 5/7 - 5000 6/7 - 8000 7/7 - 11000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 WEEK 15 SCORES P1 P2 P3 TOTAL WrathofHan 16000 0 4000 20000 Blankments 16000 0 10000 26000 thatoneguy 22000 0 6000 28000 Infernus 27000 0 6000 33000 DAJK 17000 0 4000 21000 kayumanggi 16000 0 15000 31000 Wrath 20000 0 6000 26000 MikeKaye42 22000 0 10000 32000 sakskiz (avi) 12000 0 4000 16000 Filmovie 26000 5000 15000 46000 chasmmi 16000 0 15000 31000 misafeco 14000 0 15000 29000 darkelf 30000 5000 4000 39000 Movieman89 22000 0 6000 28000 glassfairy 26000 0 10000 36000 Telemachos 11000 0 2000 13000 bcf26 11000 5000 6000 22000 grey ghost 29000 0 6000 35000 Exxdee 30000 0 15000 45000 DamienRoc 22000 0 4000 26000 Jajang 9000 0 2000 11000 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Reviewing SOTM Q1. I'm going to score it as it's now close enough that no ones score can change going forward (well there is a tiny chance but it's now so small that it won't happen...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Consider the following 4 films: The Martian Sicario The Walk Pan Consider the following 4 criteria and grades: Final Total Gross at end of game A+: 5% A: 10% B: 15% C: 20% D: 25% October 16th 3 day weekend total A+: 3% A: 6% B: 10% C: 15% D: 20% Difference in total gross from Goosebumps' total gross as of October 25th A+: 6% A: 12% B: 18% C: 25% D: 33% Number of weekends in release until its first sub $200k weekend A+: 1 w/e A: 2 w/e B: 4 w/e C: 6 w/e D: 8 w/e As answers were only supplied for the 2 highlighted options i am providing only the answers for those 2 below: Final Total Gross The Martian = 227.937m only earnt an estimated 210k over the weekend. I've estimated it could make as much as 500k more from here (and thats optimistic) and it changed no ones rating hence we are scoring now Sicario = 46.889m Final Total (Closed) The Walk = 10.138m Final Total (Closed) Pan = 35.088m Final Total (Closed) # of Weekends in Release until first SUB 200k Weekend The Martian = 19 Weeks (Weekend 18 was just done @ 210k) including next weekend assuming actuals don't drop it under 200k. no impact on Rating.... if it somehow made it to 20 weeks which is very unlikely at this point then there is a change but i doubt that will happen hence we are scoring and frankly it only impacts the highest scorer for the SOTM and in a -ve way ) Sicario = 11 Weeks The Walk = 5 Weeks Pan = 9 Weeks Scores to follow (I'll post your ratings for each answer also) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 SOTM 1 Scores User Choice Taken Ratings Bonus Score TOTAL Score The Martian Sicario The Walk Pan Wrath Abstain 2000 Grey Ghost Abstain 2000 MovieMan89 Total Gross A B D D 0 -16000 WrathofHan #Weekends B A+ A+ A+ 5000 29000 DAJK Total Gross A A+ D D 0 -8000 bcf26 Abstain 2000 thatoneguy Total Gross A+ B A D 0 2000 avi Total Gross B B D D 0 -20000 Mikekaye42 Total Gross A D D D 0 -26000 Kalo Total Gross A+ B D C 0 -6000 Telemachos Total Gross A D D B 0 -16000 Blankments Total Gross B B D D 0 -20000 Jajang Total Gross A+ B C D 0 -6000 kayumanggi Total Gross A+ C D D 0 -16000 Filmovie Abstain 2000 Chasmmi Total Gross A+ A+ A+ D 0 14000 Exxdee Total Gross A A+ C D 0 -2000 misafeco Total Gross A B C A 0 4000 darkelf Total Gross A A+ D C 0 -2000 Infernus Total Gross A A D C 0 -6000 DamienRoc Abstain 2000 Tree Total Gross A A+ D D 0 -8000 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 anyone who doesn't have a score above (SOTM1) is losing 2k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 On 1/24/2016 at 6:55 AM, WrathOfHan said: Looking at some SOTMs: SOTM 1: The Martian is still chugging along, it probably can't be scored until the end of the game. SOTM 7: It's going to come down to the wire for the 13 Hours question (O/U 60.03M). This one can't be scored until near the end of the game anyways because of Deadpool. SOTM 9: This will be ready to score in two weeks max. We just need to see what holds better: Fifth Wave or Dirty Grandpa. I'd say there's a chance that anyone who said Fifth Wave loses points because of The Boy, but it's unlikely. SOTM 8, on the other hand, can be scored now! 1000 Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? Yes 2000 Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? Yes 4000 Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? Yes 7000 Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? No 10000 Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? Yes 16000 Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? No 20000 Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? Yes 24000 How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? One 28000 How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? One 32000 Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? No 40000 Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) Empire 50000 Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release? China (not locked, but irrelevant as nobody could reach this far) 60000 Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)? No 80000 Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game? No 100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game? Likely but irrelevant as nobody could reach this far WrathOfHan: 32k (Everything answered correctly) Grey Ghost: 28k (Everything answered correctly) darkelf: 28k (Everything answered correctly) bcf26: 20k (Everything answered correctly) Wrath: 20k (Lifesaver on Question 9, Question 11 was the last one answered) ThatOneGuy: -7k (Cut Short on Question 4) Chasmmi: -24k (Cut Short on Question 8) Telemachos: -24k (Cut Short on Question 8) Exxdee: -32k (Question 4 incorrect) MovieMan89: -32k (Question 10 incorrect) kayumanggi: -50k (Question 11 incorrect) Blankments: -60k (Question 11 incorrect) Infernus: -60k (Question 11 incorrect) Jajang: -100k (Question 11 incorrect) MikeKaye42: -100k (Question 4 incorrect) sakskidz: -100K (Question 7 incorrect) Only 5 people were able to gain points from this and they were all decent sized gains. I'm using these scores for SOTM 8 unless anyone objects.... obviously those who did not answer get a big fat 0 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Updated :- Overall Scores All scores are now up to date and include the following: Weeks 1 - 15 SOTMS 1 - 6 & SOTM 8 Preseason Questions 2, 3, 5, 10, 12, 13, 15 Week 16 is obviously waiting on actuals. SOTM 7, 9 onwards will not be able to be scored until the end of the game now. There may be pre-season questions which can also be answered but I think it's now best we leave those until closer to the finish....... Here is the updated scores:- # User Pre- season Entry GRAND TOTAL PreSeason Total SOTM Total SOTM 1 SOTM 6 SOTM 8 Weekly's Total Week 14 Week 15 1 darkelf YES 658,000 74000 189000 -2000 112000 28000 395000 26000 39000 2 Exxdee YES 620,000 125000 32000 -2000 20000 -32000 463000 39000 45000 3 WrathofHan YES 591,000 78000 185000 29000 110000 32000 328000 36000 20000 4 DamienRoc YES 555,000 83000 55000 2000 5000 0 417000 44000 26000 5 grey ghost YES 519,000 115000 97000 2000 28000 28000 307000 26000 35000 6 Wrath YES 513,000 115000 92000 2000 44000 20000 306000 28000 26000 7 DAJK YES 504,000 90000 46000 -8000 36000 0 368000 23000 21000 8 Filmovie YES 473,000 28000 60000 2000 23000 0 385000 0 46000 9 Movieman89 YES 468,000 65000 22000 -16000 -11000 0 381000 26000 28000 10 glassfairy YES 465,000 3000 125000 -2000 87000 0 337000 25000 36000 11 thatoneguy YES 462,000 80000 71000 2000 36000 -7000 311000 28000 28000 12 Telemachos YES 446,000 75000 -2000 -16000 -5000 -24000 373000 34000 13000 13 Infernus YES 440,000 93000 -77000 -6000 -44000 -60000 424000 45000 33000 14 chasmmi YES 423,000 57000 29000 14000 -3000 -24000 337000 46000 31000 15 misafeco YES 410,000 90000 2000 4000 -10000 0 318000 26000 29000 16 Jajang (JJ-8) YES 384,000 135000 -55000 -6000 29000 -100000 304000 28000 11000 17 bcf26 YES 371,000 98000 77000 2000 47000 20000 196000 0 22000 18 Blankments YES 368,000 93000 -61000 -20000 9000 -60000 336000 13000 26000 19 kayumanggi YES 309,000 75000 -153000 -16000 -108000 -50000 387000 46000 31000 20 avi (Sakskidz) YES 271,000 80000 -91000 -20000 37000 -100000 282000 35000 16000 21 Kalo YES 209,000 91000 -3000 -6000 -5000 0 121000 0 0 22 99 Trees YES 126,000 100000 -16000 -8000 -5000 0 42000 0 0 23 Alfred YES 124,000 102000 -2000 -2000 -5000 0 24000 0 0 24 Baumer YES 100,000 110000 -10000 -2000 -5000 0 0 0 0 25 The Panda YES 63,000 73000 -10000 -2000 -5000 0 0 0 0 26 BastienGiot - 22,000 0 -10000 -2000 -5000 0 32000 0 0 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...