Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[JJ-8]

I might get some time later my time today to score last week. And update things.

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[Dementeleus]

Jesus, KFP3. 

 

 

[BadAtGender]

3 hours ago, Telemachos said:

Jesus, KFP3. 

 

 

 

I'm really glad I stayed abstained on that SOTM.

[Infernus]

16 hours ago, Telemachos said:

Jesus, KFP3. 

 

 

 

The good thing is that its performing so much worse than our expectations (Seeing most answers its clear almost everyone was expecting an OW above or very close to 50m) that most of the answers we gave trying to be wrong would end up being right, which would mean the SOTM will still end up being profitable to us  .

Edited January 31, 2016 by Infernus

[Infernus]

Everyone of us, but one, who participated gave the same answers to the Yes/No Questions. All but three chose the same options as in the following.

 

1. Will KFP3 open higher than Kung Fu Panda 2? (47.65M)? NO
2. Will KFP3 have a better multiplier than Goosebumps by the end of the game (currently 3.38)? YES
3. Will KFP3's domestic total have passed Shallow Hal's worldwide total gross before the end of the Game($141.06M)? NO
 
4. Which of the following films' total Domestic gross will KFP3's OD be closest to: 
A: Tenacious D: Pick of Destiny ($8.33M)   
B: Envy ($13.56M)   
C: Saving Silverman ($19.4M)? 
 
5. Will KFP3's second weekend beat High Fidelity's OW (27.28m)? NO
 
6. KFP3's China gross will be closest to:
A: Shark Tale Domestic Total (160.86M)
B: Gulliver's Travels WW total ($237.38m), 
C: King Kong Foreign gross (332.43M)  
D: Kung Fu Panda's foreign gross (416.31M)

 

All of those 3 gave option A for Q6 and one of them gave C for Q5. 

 

Anyways, if the OD remains below 10.9m, we (the players who answered as above) will have 4 of these 6 definitely right. Only Q6 will definitely be wrong. Q2 (atleast 3.38 multi by 21 Feb) could still go either way although chances are better now due to smaller OW. So We (again, the same) can get either 18k or 10k.

 

As for the remaining three (@Blankments, @DAJK and @JJ-8) they could all get Q6 correct too (as long as it makes less than 200m in China). Blanks will get Q4 and Q5 wrong though. So Blanks will get either 10k or -2k while the other two can get either 30k or 18k or 10k. So only Blanks can lose any points. The rest of us will fare better than the abstainers.

[DAJK]

That's comforting

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated answers:

 

1. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $35M? Yes

2. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $42.5M? 3000 No

3. Will Kung Fu Panda open to at least $50M? No

4. Will 50 shades of Black open to within 25% of Jack Black's weekend total (yes this technically includes Goosebumps  ) No

5. Will Alvin drop more than 62% this weekend? No

6. Will the Finest Hours Open ahead of the Revenant? 2000 No

7. Will Star Wars' weekend total be at least $2M ahead of the 6th placed film? Yes

 

8. Will Norm of the North stay above the Big Short? No

9. Will Dirty Grandpa remain ahead of both the Boy and 5th wave next weekend? 3000 No

10. Will Jane got a Gun make at least $1.5M this weekend? No

11. Will 13 hours cross 40M by the end of the weekend? Yes

12. Will at least 3 Oscar Nominated films (any category, any position) increase this weekend? No, but Brooklyn only dropped .3% so it could change with actuals

13. Will Star wars have a higher PTA than Revenant? 2000 Yes

14. Will the 5th wave have made half its budget ($38M according to BOM) back by the end of the weekend? Yes

 

15. Will ride along 2 remain in the top 6 this weekend? Yes

16. Will any non-animated film increase at least 85% on Saturday? Yes

17. Will The Hateful 8 have a bigger Sunday drop than The Forest? 3000 No

18. Will Spotlight finish 16th or higher this weekend? Yes

19. Will Carol finish above the Danish Girl this weekend? 2000 Yes

20. Will Daddy's Home drop more than 53%? No

21. Did you know there was apparently an Ip Man 1 and 2 that happened at some point? Yes

 

14/21 - 2000

15/21 - 3000

16/21 - 4000

17/21 - 5000

18/21 - 6000

19/21 - 8000

20/21 - 10000

21/21 - 15000

 

Part 2

 

1. What will Kung Fu Panda's OW be? 41M

2. What will be the combined Saturday of 50 shades and finest hours $6,715,539

3. What will be the total weekend gross of ALL the films reported on BOM with a one word title? $6,571,290

 

Part 3

 

2. The Revenant

5. Ride Along 2

7. Dirty Grandpa

9. Fifty Shades

12. The Big Short

15. Spotlight

 

3/6 - 2000

4/6 - 5000

5/6 - 8000

6/6 - 12000 

[WrathOfHan]

Good week for me, I got 14 correct (15 if #12 changes to yes) and one placement for 22k total

Edited January 31, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[chasmmi]

So the only time I get questions right is when  I try to get them wrong, got it

 

As SOTMs are so fun and there is likely only time to fit in a maximum of one more after this one, here is either the final or the penultimate SOTM

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Wow, this one could change the race significantly.

[BadAtGender]

Could we get a scoring update before we start betting our points?

[chasmmi]

4 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

Could we get a scoring update before we start betting our points?

 

Worst case scenario, I will have the weekly scores and stuff up to date by Tuesday evening.

[JJ-8]

Right..... 

 

Week 15 Answers 

 

(ie. the week that the 5th wave opened)

 

1. Which new opener will make the most this weekend? Dirty Grandpa

2. Will at least 1 new entry enter into the top 3? 2000 No

3. Will the Big Short drop less than 8% this weekend? No

4. Will Norm of the North have the biggest drop amongst all animated (including Alvin) films this weekend? No

5. Will the Revanant finally hit the number 1 spot this weekend? 3000 Yes

 

6. Will Sisters remain in the top 10 this weekend? 3000 No

7. Will the forest finish above Norm of the North? No

8. Will Star Wars cross 875M total by the end of the weekend? Yes

9. Will Spotlight finish above Brooklyn this weekend? 2000 No

10. Will any film in the top 12 drop more than 62%? Yes (Ride Along 2; Sisters)

 

11. Will Monster Hunt have a PTA above $6000? No

12. Will any film increase 200% or more on Friday? 2000 Yes (Norm of the North)

13. Will any film decrease more than 47% on Sunday? Yes (All of the top 4)

14. Which film in the top 8 will have the highest PTA? 3000 The Revenant (4314)

15. Do you miss the lack of bear films being released this weekend? WTF everyone gets this one right....

 

10/15 - 2000

11/15 - 3000

12/15 - 4000

13/15 - 6000

14/15 - 8000

15/15 - 10000

 

Part 2

 

1. What will the 3 highest new openers combined OW be? 5000 $32,216,623 (32.217m)

2. What will Creed's total be by end of Saturday? 5000 $108,240,150 (108.24m)

3. What will Ride Along make on Sunday? 5000 $2,952,650 (2.953m)

 

Part 3

 

1. The Revenant

3. Ride Along 2

5. The Boy

8. Daddy's Home

10. The Big Short

13. The Forest

16. Spotlight

 

2000 each plus...

4/7 - 2000

5/7 - 5000

6/7 - 8000

7/7 - 11000

[JJ-8]

WEEK 15 SCORES	P1	P2	P3	TOTAL
WrathofHan	16000	0	4000	20000
Blankments	16000	0	10000	26000
thatoneguy	22000	0	6000	28000
Infernus	27000	0	6000	33000
DAJK	17000	0	4000	21000
kayumanggi	16000	0	15000	31000
Wrath	20000	0	6000	26000
MikeKaye42	22000	0	10000	32000
sakskiz (avi)	12000	0	4000	16000
Filmovie	26000	5000	15000	46000
chasmmi	16000	0	15000	31000
misafeco	14000	0	15000	29000
darkelf	30000	5000	4000	39000
Movieman89	22000	0	6000	28000
glassfairy	26000	0	10000	36000
Telemachos	11000	0	2000	13000
bcf26	11000	5000	6000	22000
grey ghost	29000	0	6000	35000
Exxdee	30000	0	15000	45000
DamienRoc	22000	0	4000	26000
Jajang	9000	0	2000	11000

[JJ-8]

Reviewing SOTM Q1.

 

I'm going to score it as it's now close enough that no ones score can change going forward (well there is a tiny chance but it's now so small that it won't happen...)

 

[JJ-8]

Consider the following 4 films:

 

The Martian

Sicario

The Walk

Pan

 

 

Consider the following 4 criteria and grades:

 

Final Total Gross at end of game  A+: 5%   A: 10%   B: 15%  C: 20%   D: 25% 

 

October 16th 3 day weekend total   A+: 3%   A: 6%   B: 10%  C: 15%   D: 20%

 

Difference in total gross from Goosebumps' total gross as of October 25th  A+: 6%   A: 12%   B: 18%  C: 25%   D: 33%

 

Number of weekends in release until its first sub $200k weekend   A+: 1 w/e   A: 2 w/e   B: 4 w/e  C: 6 w/e   D: 8 w/e

 

As answers were only supplied for the 2 highlighted options i am providing only the answers for those 2 below:

 

Final Total Gross

• The Martian = 227.937m
  • only earnt an estimated 210k over the weekend.
  • I've estimated it could make as much as 500k more from here (and thats optimistic) and it changed no ones rating hence we are scoring now
• Sicario = 46.889m
  • Final Total (Closed)
• The Walk = 10.138m
  • Final Total (Closed)
• Pan = 35.088m
  • Final Total (Closed)

 

# of Weekends in Release until first SUB 200k Weekend

• The Martian = 19 Weeks (Weekend 18 was just done @ 210k)
  • including next weekend assuming actuals don't drop it under 200k.  no impact on Rating.... if it somehow made it to 20 weeks which is very unlikely at this point then there is a change but i doubt that will happen hence we are scoring and frankly it only impacts the highest scorer for the SOTM and in a -ve way )
• Sicario = 11 Weeks
• The Walk = 5 Weeks
• Pan = 9 Weeks

Scores to follow (I'll post your ratings for each answer also)

[JJ-8]

SOTM 1 Scores

 

 

User	Choice Taken	Ratings				Bonus Score	TOTAL Score
		The Martian	Sicario	The Walk	Pan
Wrath	Abstain						2000
Grey Ghost	Abstain						2000
MovieMan89	Total Gross	A	B	D	D	0	-16000
WrathofHan	#Weekends	B	A+	A+	A+	5000	29000
DAJK	Total Gross	A	A+	D	D	0	-8000
bcf26	Abstain						2000
thatoneguy	Total Gross	A+	B	A	D	0	2000
avi	Total Gross	B	B	D	D	0	-20000
Mikekaye42	Total Gross	A	D	D	D	0	-26000
Kalo	Total Gross	A+	B	D	C	0	-6000
Telemachos	Total Gross	A	D	D	B	0	-16000
Blankments	Total Gross	B	B	D	D	0	-20000
Jajang	Total Gross	A+	B	C	D	0	-6000
kayumanggi	Total Gross	A+	C	D	D	0	-16000
Filmovie	Abstain						2000
Chasmmi	Total Gross	A+	A+	A+	D	0	14000
Exxdee	Total Gross	A	A+	C	D	0	-2000
misafeco	Total Gross	A	B	C	A	0	4000
darkelf	Total Gross	A	A+	D	C	0	-2000
Infernus	Total Gross	A	A	D	C	0	-6000
DamienRoc	Abstain						2000
Tree	Total Gross	A	A+	D	D	0	-8000

[JJ-8]

anyone who doesn't have a score above (SOTM1) is losing 2k.

[JJ-8]

On 1/24/2016 at 6:55 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Looking at some SOTMs:

 

SOTM 1: The Martian is still chugging along, it probably can't be scored until the end of the game.

SOTM 7: It's going to come down to the wire for the 13 Hours question (O/U 60.03M). This one can't be scored until near the end of the game anyways because of Deadpool.

SOTM 9: This will be ready to score in two weeks max. We just need to see what holds better: Fifth Wave or Dirty Grandpa. I'd say there's a chance that anyone who said Fifth Wave loses points because of The Boy, but it's unlikely.

 

SOTM 8, on the other hand, can be scored now!

 

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? Yes

2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? Yes

4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? Yes

7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? No

10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? Yes

 

16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? No

20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? Yes

24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? One

28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? One

32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? No

 

40000   Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) Empire

50000   Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release? China (not locked, but irrelevant as nobody could reach this far)

60000   Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)? No

80000   Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game? No

100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game? Likely but irrelevant as nobody could reach this far

 

WrathOfHan: 32k (Everything answered correctly)

Grey Ghost: 28k (Everything answered correctly)

darkelf: 28k (Everything answered correctly)

bcf26: 20k (Everything answered correctly)

Wrath: 20k (Lifesaver on Question 9, Question 11 was the last one answered)

ThatOneGuy: -7k (Cut Short on Question 4)

Chasmmi: -24k (Cut Short on Question 8)

Telemachos: -24k (Cut Short on Question 8)

Exxdee: -32k (Question 4 incorrect) 

MovieMan89: -32k (Question 10 incorrect)

kayumanggi: -50k (Question 11 incorrect)

Blankments: -60k (Question 11 incorrect)

Infernus: -60k (Question 11 incorrect)

Jajang: -100k (Question 11 incorrect)

MikeKaye42: -100k (Question 4 incorrect)

sakskidz: -100K (Question 7 incorrect)

 

Only 5 people were able to gain points from this and they were all decent sized gains.

 

 

I'm using these scores for SOTM 8 unless anyone objects....

 

obviously those who did not answer get a big fat 0

 

 

[JJ-8]

Updated :- Overall Scores

 

All scores are now up to date and include the following:

• Weeks 1 - 15
• SOTMS 1 - 6 & SOTM 8
• Preseason Questions 2, 3, 5, 10, 12, 13, 15

Week 16 is obviously waiting on actuals.  SOTM 7, 9 onwards will not be able to be scored until the end of the game now.  There may be pre-season questions which can also be answered but I think it's now best we leave those until closer to the finish.......

 

Here is the updated scores:-

 

#	User	Pre- season Entry	GRAND TOTAL	PreSeason Total	SOTM Total	SOTM 1	SOTM 6	SOTM 8	Weekly's Total	Week 14	Week 15
1	darkelf	YES	658,000	74000	189000	-2000	112000	28000	395000	26000	39000
2	Exxdee	YES	620,000	125000	32000	-2000	20000	-32000	463000	39000	45000
3	WrathofHan	YES	591,000	78000	185000	29000	110000	32000	328000	36000	20000
4	DamienRoc	YES	555,000	83000	55000	2000	5000	0	417000	44000	26000
5	grey ghost	YES	519,000	115000	97000	2000	28000	28000	307000	26000	35000
6	Wrath	YES	513,000	115000	92000	2000	44000	20000	306000	28000	26000
7	DAJK	YES	504,000	90000	46000	-8000	36000	0	368000	23000	21000
8	Filmovie	YES	473,000	28000	60000	2000	23000	0	385000	0	46000
9	Movieman89	YES	468,000	65000	22000	-16000	-11000	0	381000	26000	28000
10	glassfairy	YES	465,000	3000	125000	-2000	87000	0	337000	25000	36000
11	thatoneguy	YES	462,000	80000	71000	2000	36000	-7000	311000	28000	28000
12	Telemachos	YES	446,000	75000	-2000	-16000	-5000	-24000	373000	34000	13000
13	Infernus	YES	440,000	93000	-77000	-6000	-44000	-60000	424000	45000	33000
14	chasmmi	YES	423,000	57000	29000	14000	-3000	-24000	337000	46000	31000
15	misafeco	YES	410,000	90000	2000	4000	-10000	0	318000	26000	29000
16	Jajang (JJ-8)	YES	384,000	135000	-55000	-6000	29000	-100000	304000	28000	11000
17	bcf26	YES	371,000	98000	77000	2000	47000	20000	196000	0	22000
18	Blankments	YES	368,000	93000	-61000	-20000	9000	-60000	336000	13000	26000
19	kayumanggi	YES	309,000	75000	-153000	-16000	-108000	-50000	387000	46000	31000
20	avi (Sakskidz)	YES	271,000	80000	-91000	-20000	37000	-100000	282000	35000	16000
21	Kalo	YES	209,000	91000	-3000	-6000	-5000	0	121000	0	0
22	99 Trees	YES	126,000	100000	-16000	-8000	-5000	0	42000	0	0
23	Alfred	YES	124,000	102000	-2000	-2000	-5000	0	24000	0	0
24	Baumer	YES	100,000	110000	-10000	-2000	-5000	0	0	0	0
25	The Panda	YES	63,000	73000	-10000	-2000	-5000	0	0	0	0
26	BastienGiot	-	22,000	0	-10000	-2000	-5000	0	32000	0	0