Romania Box Office

[DoctorWho]

This weekend releases:

 

- >  Don Jon

- >  Gravity

-> Metallica Through the Never

-> Justin and the Knights of Valor

-> Lupu (local film)

-> Thanks for Sharing

[DoctorWho]

Romania Weekend Box Office Top 10 for October 04-06, 2013
Rank	Movie	Weeks In Release	Theaters	Admissions	Change (%)	Total Admissions	Total Gross ($)
1	Gravity	1	50	32,042	-	32,042	214,192
2	Runner Runner	2	29	11,765	-53.4	50,298	278,779
3	Justin and the Knights of Valour	1	55	10,607	-	10,607	61,519
4	Don Jon	1	28	9,962	-	9,962	59,095
5	Thanks for Sharing	1	25	6,809	-	6,809	41,715
6	Planes	5	30	5,258	-38.9	74,239	399,433
7	Rush	2	29	4,690	-53.7	23,631	123,994
8	We’re the Millers	6	19	3,809	-48.7	180,750	925,490
9	About Time	3	26	3,177	-45.7	33,034	171,543
10	The Smurfs 2	7	25	3,040	-47.6	141,936	739,129
11	Metallica Through the Never	1	15	2,585	-	2,585	19,917
.......
19	Lupu	1	7	652	-	652	989

 

[DoctorWho]

Next weekend releases:

 

- >  Closed Circuit

- >  Diana

-> Haute Cuisine

-> Machete Kills

-> Roxanne (local film)

-> The Family

[James]

Since no one posted here in a long time I'll take the duty of updating this thread regulary.

We just had probably the worst weekend of the year. TMNT opened on top with 19.600 admissions. It is by far the worst top opening of the year, even worse than '22 Jump Street' that opened to a little over 22.000 admisions or 'Let's be Cops', that opened last week to no. 2 with over 23.000.

 

There are multiple reasons for 'TMNT' performance:

1. Average-low number of theatres (45). Still, 'Let's be Cops' only had 41 last week and made more and TMNT didn't even make 1/5 of '300: RoE' (104.872 adm. from 64 screens).

2. The TMNT brand means nothing here. The animation series was never popular. And even so, in Romania the brand recognition is hit and miss. Marvel or HP are well known brands (HP novels are among the best selling books all time), still no HP made over $1M and Marvel struggles. And then you have The Hobbit. ROTK made around $350.000 in 2004. And now each of the Hobbit movies made 8X more.

3. The marketing was shit.

 

The other openers were 'Sin City 2' (not 'As Above/So Below', as I stated in another thread; sorry), that bombed with less than 12.000 admissions and 'Step Up: All In' - also bombed, with a bit over 12.500 (and that is surprising, considering the last one did quite good here).

 

The holdovers did good mostly (except for GotG). Lucy is a leggy movie. It made almost the same number of admissions in it's fourth weekend, as GotG in it's third.

 

The top 10 this weekend looks like this:

 

 

Also, regarding top 10 for the year till now, here it is:

 

 

Overall, a weaker year than 2013 and 2012 (no Twilight, Ice Age, James Bond, IM or FF), but there's still time to recover. Interstellar, Horrible Bosses, The Hobbit, The Penguins of Madagascar, Exodus all have a good chance of making Top 10 and the final Hobbit movie is pretty much locked to take the top OW/TOTAL admissions and gross for the year (it'll probably have the 2'nd all time OW in terms of adm., behind Breaking Dawn Pt. 2's huge 123.100 and become the second highest grossing movie here behind Avatar). 

 

Next weekend openers:

1. The Expandables 3

2. A Most Wanted Man

3. The Keeper of Lost Causes (Danish crime/thriller)

4. Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara (India comedy/drama)

 

Expectations: AMWM - I have no clue  ; But TE2 more than doubled TE1 in terms of admissions (over 100.000)/gross. If the trend continues, it could open to over 30.000 adm, although I doubt it).

Edited August 27, 2014 by James

[James]

If the last weekend was bad, this one is beyond terrible. Last week, TMNT became the lowest no. 1 movie of the year, but now we have a new champion: 'The Expendables 3' bombed hard with a little over 17.000 admissions ('The Expendables 2' opened with almost 28.000) and less than $100.000. Not even unknown comedies fail to reach that!

 

The other opener, 'A Most Wanted Man' was even worse. It did 5.600 admissions from 40 screens (that's a medium sized opening).

 

There's really no way to express how dead the market is right now, reinforcing the fact that summer is almost never the best time to open a movie (students and young people in general are on vacation and so the driving force is gone).

 

Even the holdovers struggled: TMNT fell 56%, Step Up fell 63% and Sin City 68% (that's just inexplicably bad for both of them).

 

The only one that remained unfazed was again 'Lucy', that was off just 34%. GotG also had a good drop, but that 's just because it was on an absurd number of screens (55. Lucy made more admissions in it's sixth weekend than GotG in it's fifth, despite being on only 25 screens). It's also woth noting that thanks to it's good holds, 'Lucy' just entered top 10 for the year at no. 8 (no.5 and soon 4 when we talk attendence). 'Captain America 2' left the top.

 

'Let's be Cops' had an acceptable drop. 

 

TOP 10:

 

 

Next week's openers: 

1. The Captive

2. The Giver

3. Kyra Kyralina (local movie)

4. Wakolda

 

So another weak set of openers. I'd be surprised if any of them opened above 20.000 adm. But considering how they have zero competition, it might be a chance, especially for 'The Captive'

Edited September 1, 2014 by James

[James]

Romania is an expanding market and even though it's still a very small one compared to the main OS markets, it grew rapidly in the last decade. Here's Romania's yearly box office since 2007 (I was too lazy to calculate results before that since they were insignificant) in millions USD:

 

2007 – 8.731.200

 

2008 – 13.453.000 (+54 % from 2007)

 

2009 – 20.681.800 (+53.7 %)

 

2010 – 25.720.000 (+24.3 %)

 

2011 – 39.756.900 (+54.5 %)

 

2012 – 41.837.000 (+5.2 %)

 

2013 – 48.495.700 (+15.9 %)

 

2014 – 38.378.186 (as of now) That's 22.7 % ahead of 2013 through the same point (2013 had 31.2M). If the ratio stays the same, 2014 will finish with almost 60M, that would represent another 23% yearly growth. 

 

As for 2015, it is shaping up to be a huge year. I did not give it too much thought, but a total north of 65M (or even 70M) is a safe bet (at some point in the next few days/weeks I'll try to do a forecast for the biggest movies of 2015).

Edited September 5, 2014 by James

[James]

I'll do this quick because it's really hard to do it from my phone and net signal is hard to get in the middle of nowhere. 

BOMB weekend. A new record for the lowest grossing top movie and probably the worst weekend in years when you look at the openers. 'The Giver' did not bomb. There is no way to describe how bad it's done. Same for 'The Captive'.

But the holdovers ('The Expendables' aside) are doing awesome. We have 4%, 12%, 13% drops that are unusual even for this country (that's also the reason why this was not the worst weekend of the year).

On this note, GotG entered top 10 for the year on no.9 (in local currency; it's on no. 11 in USD), behind Lucy, despite not even making $1M. Also, 'Lucy' crossed the 1M border, becoming the 8th movie this year to do so. At a first look 2014 seems behind 2013, but it's actually way ahead. There are no monster movies but there are a lot of films that made much more than expected.

 

Here's the top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- As Above, So Below

- The Crypt (local movie)

- If I Stay

- Into the Storm

 

This should finally bring us a decent weekend. 

Edited September 12, 2014 by James

[James]

ALL-TIME TOP 10

 

 

The final 'Hobbit' movie will likely end up on the second position in this top. An interesting thing to note: despite the fact that at the end of this year the market will be 3x bigger than in 2009, the top movies seem to end up in the same area. I don't see any movie in the next 5-10 years passing 'Avatar' and till the next 'Pirates of the Caribbean' arrives, probably no movie will touch 2M (next year, 'Bond 24' has a small chance - I'll post my 2015 forecast tomorrow or the day after that). The overall market, on the other side, will probably be 9-10x bigger (in 10 years) than in 2009.  

The explanation is pretty simple: a few years back the number of screens was really small (in the 20-30 area) and the economy was so bad most people would only see 2-3 movies a year. That way, there were a few huge hits and a lot of small movies. There was no middle ground. Nowadays, the things have changed and the medium size area is extremely well developed. Most SF movies, animations and comedies end up there (in the 500K-999K area). For example, this year we had 'Edge of Tomorrow', 'Transcendence' 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes', 'How to Train Tour Dragon 2', 'Captain America 2', 'The Pirate Fairy', '22 Jump Street' or 'Let's be Cops' (that is bound to become one of the, if not the highest grossing comedy of the year thanks to excellent holds).

 

YEARLY TOP 10s

 

2014

 

 

'Guardians of the Galaxy' will probably enter the top after this weekend (data on Monday or Tuesday), but won't be there at the end of 2014. 'The Hobbit: TBotFA' will win the year and 'Penguins of the Madagascar' and 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' have big chances of ending up in the top ('Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1' also has a chance; 'Interstellar could also do it, but at this point I don't see it happening).

 

2013

 

 

 

2012

 

 

2011

 

Edited September 14, 2014 by James

[James]

2015 FORECAST

 

This is my 2015 forecast. Like any prediction, nothing is really bound to happen, but I tried to keep my predictions as objective as possible. Of course, there will probably be a few original movies that will surprise. It happens every year (examples: 'Last Vegas', 'Lucy', 'The Three Musketeers' etc.), but I tried to talk about every film that seems (at the moment at least) to have a chance to be big. I'll update the post if new movies are set for 2015. 

The list below contains the CHANCES for a movie to hit $1M (that is the mark to hit for a theatrical release to be considered a big success).

After that you can find my PREDICTION for each movie. It's important to note that the "chances" are not directly equivalent with a higher box office revenue. For example, some movies, especially franchise ones, are easier to predict. It's easy to predict that no Pixar movie will hit 1M in 2015 because almost all Pixar movies bombed/flopped here. So an original movie, like Tomorrowland, may have a bigger chance of hitting the mark (because SF movies tend to do at least decent business here), despite the fact that it's revenue might actually be lower than 'Inside Out' 's for example. In the end, it's a matter of how likely it is for a movie to break out.

 

That being said, let's begin. 

 

1. Bond 24 (October 23)

‘Skyfall’ was very big here (1.55M). I don’t know if this will make past that, but given the market’s growth since 2012, I’d say there’s a pretty good chance. (chances: 100%; prediction: 1.8M)

 

2. Fast and Furious 7 (April 3)

‘Fast & Furious 6’ made 1.3M. With the death of Paul Walker and the franchise’s increasing popularity this has a decent chance of winning the year. Top 5 al least is guaranteed. (chance: 100%; prediction: 1.7M)

 

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 1)

‘The Avengers’ made 1.2M in 2012. Iron-Man 3 also made 1.2M and Thor 2 – 1.45M (both 2013). ‘Captain America 2’ barely made 900K. ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ will probably pass the 1M border. The Avengers: AOU has Thor, even though it is not a fantasy. But a final gross north of 1.5M is locked. (chances: 100%; prediction: 1.65M)

 

4. Star Wars: Episode VII (December 18)

This is difficult to predict, and not because it won’t make over 1M (it would be the disappointment of the year if it would fail to hit that), but because there are a lot of things to consider. First of all: the other movies were never so popular here to begin with. ‘Revenge of the Sith’ topped the year in 2005 but that’s not saying much, considering 2005 was dissmal (in 2004 ‘LOTR: Return of the Kind’ and ‘Troy’ sold over 2x more admissions and in 2003 ‘The Matrix Revloaded’ did the same; even ‘Matrix Revolutions’ sold more). But let’s compare it to the first prequel. That made actually more admissions than ‘Sith’, but was also beaten by ‘The Mummy’ and every other movie I mentioned above, exept for ‘Revolutions’.

That’s just the first part of the problem. Then you have the fact that during the past decade the driving force for movies shifted from adults to younger audiences, that are not familiar with the SW universe. The fact that I haven’t seen them on TV even once, despite seeing LOTR or Titanic even 2-3 times a year doesn’t help also.

And in the end, it’s biggest problem is competition. The movie opens the same weekend as ‘Inferno’. It’s worth noting that in 2006, ‘The Da Vinci Code’sold more ticket and beat ROTS by far, being no.1 for the year. In 2009, ‘Angels and Demons’ was no. 11 for the year, despite making the same money as ‘Da Vinci’. In the meantime, inflation became a huge factor and the Dan Brown brand grew immensly (‘Inferno’ was the best selling book in the country in 2013 and that despite the fact that it was released only three months before the end of the year and it’s currently in Top 20 bestsellers for 2014). SW will probably be bigger than Inferno, but not by a huge margin.

On the bright side, even though ‘Inferno’ will be big, at least there’s no mammoth like ‘The Hobbit’ to suck all the air fom the market.

 

In the end, I see it at around 1.5M, maybe a bit more or less (more likely). (chances: 100 %)

 

5. Jurassic World (June 12)

 

Well, Godzilla made over 1M this year. The market was very small back in 2001 when JP3 opened, so that’s no indicator. But a final north of 1M seems like a safe bet. (chances: 100%; prediction: 1.2M) 

 

6. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 (November 20)

Simillar to Potter (though on a much smaller level), ‘The Hunger Games’ books series were enormous here, but that didn’t translate into a big box office revenue like for ‘The Hobbit’ for example. ‘Catching Fire’ did 855K here. There is a chance that ‘Mocking Jay Part 1’ crosses the 1M border (although being less action packed will hurt it). As for the last part, 1M is locked. (chances: 100%; prediction: 1.2M)

 

7. Fifty Shades of Grey (February 13)

This… this is such a wild card, but not because it would have problems making over 1M. No, that’s locked and loaded. The real question is how much higher can it go. One thing is certain: it will be among the biggest movies for the year.  (chances: 100%; prediction: 1.15M)

 

8. Inferno (December 18)

I explained pretty much everything above. (chances: 95 %; prediction: 1M)

 

9. Cinderella (March 13)

Live-action fairytale movies are locked to be successful here. ‘Oz’ made 850K in 2012 and ‘Maleficent’ – 1.1M and still going. (chances: 95%; prediction: 1M)

 

10. Taken 3 (January 9)

The first ‘Taken’ made around 133K here, the second - 692K. With the market rapidly expanding and little competition (‘The Seventh Son’ and ‘Into the Woods’ open the week before; they are both fantasy movies opening in the shadow of the final ‘Hobbit’ movie, another fantasy; but ‘Into the Woods’ has Johnny Depp, so it should at least do decent), ‘Taken 3’ should be able to cross the 1M border. (chances: 80%; prediction: 1M)

 

OTHER MOVIES, in no particular order:

 

- Kung Fu Panda 3 (December 25)

‘Kung Fu Panda 2’ did good here, especially for 2011 (745K), so this has a good chance at hitting 1M (chances: 80%; prediction: 975K).

 

- Minions (July 10)

‘Despicable Me 2’ did decent (840K). It has nothing next to ‘Ice Age’ for example, but this will still do good. (chances: 85%; pediction: 950K)

 

- Hotel Transylvania 2 (October 23)

The first one did quite good (625K) and was well liked. This will increase. (chances: 40%; prediction: 850K)

 

- Big Hero 6 (January 23)

This is a bit harder to predict, mainly because it opens so much later than in the US. Usually, we get the movie the same week or a week later and the reason for that is simple: piracy here is almost an industry. Till it opens here, ‘Big Hero’ will likely be on torrents with a very good quality. But even so, it is the first animated movie of the year and has little competition so a final tally of close to 1M should be in the cards. (chances: 70%; prediction: 800K)

 

- Ted 2 (June 26)

The first one made 520.000K here. Decent for a comedy, but nowhere near ‘We’re the Millers’ or ‘The Hangover’. Still, it’s locked to have a healthy increase. (chances: 50%; pediction: 800K)

 

- The Jungle Book (October 9)

With next to zero competition, this should do good. (chances: 30%; prediction: 800K)

 

- Mad Max: Fury Road (May 15)

This is pretty much unknown here. The original trilogy was never in theatres, but here’s the thing: it looks like ‘Fast and Furious’ or ‘Need For Speed’ (meaning cars centered movies). We love that. The FF franchise is huge and NFS is currently no. 9 for the year with almost 1M. It opens 2 weeks after the second ‘Avengers’ movie, but unless you are ‘The Hobbit’, ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ or ‘Ice Age’, you are not a danger for a movie that opens two weeks after you. (chances: 65%; prediction: 750K)

 

- Terminator: Genisys (July 3)

‘Terminator 3’ was very successful back in 2003, but ‘Terminator: Salvation’ disappointed. (chances: 60%; prediction: 750K)

 

- Ant-Man (July 31)

The nearest comparison is ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ that had the SF look to it and it helped a lot. (chances: 30%; prediction: 750K)

 

- Jupiter Ascending (February 6)

We like big visual feasts and we still see movies in 3D. With no big action spectacle before or after it, JA could make 1M, even though it has no major stars. (chances: 50%; prediction: 700k)

 

- Peanuts (November 6)

Well, anoher animation in an already crowded year. (chances: 20%; prediction: 700K)

 

- Inside Out (June 19)

Pixar is no brand here. ‘Toy Story’, ‘Monster University’ and ‘Cars 2’ all flopped-bombed. ‘Brave’ did decent. (chances: 20%; 600K)

 

- The Good Dinosaur (November 27)

Pixar… (chances: 20%; prediction: 600K)

 

- Pan (July 17)

Live-action fairytale. (chances: 50%; prediction: 600K)

 

- Assassin’s Creed (August 7)

The game is popular here and if the movie is a visual fest then it’ll do good. (chances: 40%; prediction: 600K)

 

- Tomorrowland (May 22)

Not much to say about this. It all depends on marketing and how good the visual spectacle will look. It’s SF, but it has no big stars attached. (chances: 40%; prediction: 600K)

 

- The Fantastic Four (June 19)

‘Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer’ bombed here in 2007 and the market is not that crazy for superhero movies anyway. Plus, it opens on the same weekend with ‘Inside Out’. (chances: 5%; prediction: 400K)

 

 

Thinking about it, I might've gone a bit high on anmations, especially on 'Big Hero' and the Pixar ones. But oh well, being a little optimistic is not that bad. 

Edited September 21, 2014 by James

[Tower]

That was a great read, you obviously put a lot of effort into the post. The percent doesn't make any sense when combined with your prediction number though, you can't predict less than a million bit have more than 50% to make a million, or predicting barely over a million but giving a 100% chance anyway.

[James]

That was a great read, you obviously put a lot of effort into the post. The percent doesn't make any sense when combined with your prediction number though, you can't predict less than a million bit have more than 50% to make a million, or predicting barely over a million but giving a 100% chance anyway.

Thanks. The percent has little to do with the actual number. For instant you have 'Hotel Transylvania 2' that will increase but it's easy to see, comparing it to other animations, that it won't be enough to make 1M. Then you have 'Mad Max', that is a completely unknown property but has those elements that made NFS a big success so it's chances are bigger than Hotel's.

The movies that have over 80% are pretty much a safe bet for 1M.

And yeah, for the movies I predicted over 1M is pretty much senseless to put the chances since they are locked for that, but I felt like having a pattern haha.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Well, I thought that this weekend would be decent...boy, was I wrong! We just had the second worst weekend of the year, despite 4 new releases.

 

- Into the Storm opened on top with 11.860 admissions. I expected it to at least be over 15.000. No such luck. It's better than 'The Giver' last weekend, but that's not saying much. It will finish with maybe $250K  and around 50.000 admissions if lucky.

 

- As Above, So Below opened with 8.725 tickets. That's worse than 'Deliver Us From Evil' that opened to over 10.000 a few weeks back. Looking in perspective though, it's not a beyond horrible result simply because horror movies don't do well here. Unless you count 'I, Frankenstein', 'Deliver Us From Evil' is actually the highest grossing horror for the year, with around less than 200K. 'The Purge' is second with 110K, so 'As Above, So Below' will become the second biggest horror of 2014  .

 

- In third place, If I Stay opened with a bit less than 8.150 tickets sold. That's not surprising. 'TFioS' also bombed here with a bit more than 11.000 adm on OW.

 

- The fourth movie opening was The Crypt, a local film. I have no data for it, but it bombed for sure. The local market is dead. The highest grossing local movie of the year is '#Selfie', a comedy that made around 350K. To figure out how bad things are, you gotta know that '#Selfie' is actually the second highest grossing local movie ever, behind only 'Pozitia copilului', that made a bit more than 370K last year. And the trend will continue. It's a huge difference from 2002 for example, when a local movie ('Garcea si oltenii') won the year with over 250.000 admissions, beating the likes of LOTR, SW or Spider Man. An interesting point to make it's that it actually made less than 250K, so the average price of a ticket back then was less than $1, a huge difference from the $5.5 today. 

 

Back to this weekend, once again, the real story was about the holdovers. 

 

- Let's be Cops dipped only 21% and became the highest grossing comedy of the year. It has enough gas in the tank to finish with over 700K (maybe even 750K) - an excellent result.

 

- In fifth place, The House of Magic is probably one of the most surprising things to see. The positive side of having weak openers is that little, unknown movies tend to do good and this is a perfect example: it is slowly turning into a little animated hit. It only fell 10% this weekend and will likely finish well above 500K and 100.000 admissions. It already has an over 4x multiplier (that is the average for this market) and a lot of fuel left in the tank. 

With no huge brands opening, this was a slow year for animations. The top looks like this:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 730K

2. The Pirate Fairy - 650K

3. The Nut Job - 485K (LOL... and still in theatres... more LOL )

4. The Lego Movie - 416K

5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman - 404K

6. The House of Magic - 373K

 

'The House of Magic' should end up on no.3 before 'Penguins of Madagascar' arrives.

 

- TMNT fell 26% and should end with over 500K --> decent for a new franchise.

 

- GotG also fell 26% and that has a lot to do with the absurd number of theatres it is on. It is actually the second widest movie in release, after only 'Into the Storm' . Still, it will probably hit the 1M mark next weekend, becoming the 10th movie this year to do so, and thus tiying the 2010 record. With 'Hobbit', 'Penguins', 'Exodus', 'Interstellar' and 'Mockingjay 1' still to come, we could have 15 1M+ movies, almost double the 8 last year.

 

- Lucy had another beautiful drop, easing just 23%. In the process it passed 'Transformers', becoming no. 7 for the year and it should have no problem ending on no. 4, ahead of 'Maleficent'. It's already no. 4 in terms of admissions, with over 200.000.

 

- The Giver dropped a huge 60%.

 

- And finally, The Expendables 3 can't seem to catch a break. I dropped another 50% and it will even have trouble getting a 3x multiplier. That is absolutely horrendous for this market.  

 

Here is the top 10:

 

 

The overall 2014 box office is still running 20% ahead of 2013.

 

Next week's openers:

 

- The Maze Runner 

- Life of Crime

- America, venim! (America, here we come! - local movie)

 

'The Maze Runner' is the first high-profile movie since TMNT a few weeks ago and with an empty market place I fully expect it to open with at least 20.000 adm. 'Divergent' opened with a bit over 19.000 and legged it's way to over 100.000 and $540K. 'The Maze Runner' should do more than that

.

Also, 'Life of Crime' seems the kind of comedy audiences here dig, and having Jennifer Aniston certainly doesn't hurt. If it opens with over 10.000 admission it should have very good legs and end up being a success.

 

The local movie will likely bomb.

Edited September 16, 2014 by James

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

After a few dismal weeks, some strong openers finally arrived. Despite that, we have a new 2nd worst overall weekend for 2014. The reason: the incredibly and inexplicably cheap tickets for the local opener. But let's take it in order.

 

- The Maze Runner surprised this weekend, opening to a very strong 37.470 admissions and over $200K. While that pales in comparison to some other openers this year, it's good to remember this is a completely unknown property here. The books were never published in Romania and 'Teen Wolf' never aired here. Basically, it's an YA movie without a pre-built fan base and that makes the result mighty impressive, while also giving some clues about the potential end gross. WOM seems to be good.

 

Comparing 'The Maze Runner' with similar titles, it doubled 'Divergent''s OW admission and money wise. It also almost doubled the first 'Hunger Games' and opened 30% behind 'Catching Fire' (again, THG is a very popular book series here, with huge sales), even though it'll probably end up ahead in gross (CF, being a well established franchise, was frontloaded).

At this point we can only guess, but with strong WOM and not much competition ('Dracula Untold' being the only direct competitor in the near future), a total around 1M and 150.000+ adm. seem to be in the cards (there's also a small chance of finishing in Top 10 for the year).

 

- In second place, the local comedy America, venim! (America, here we come!) opened with a surprising 14.260 admissions. That is a very good opening, actually ahead of the 12.650 OW for this year's local hit (and second highest grossing local movie all time) '#Selfie'. But for some reason, the ticket price for 'America, venim!' was just around $2.5, a far cry from the usual $5.5 - 6. Because of that, the movie grossed less than 40K (vs. the 55K for '#Selfie'). Still, it should have nice legs and end with a decent gross.

 

- In third place, thanks to another very small (18%) drop, we find The House of Magic. The animated mini hit has now grossed over 400K.

 

- In fourth place Jennifer Aniston's Life of Crime bombed with a bit less than 4.000 adm.

 

- In fifth the comedy hit Let's be Cops had one of it's steepest drops yet (34%) thanks to competition from 'America, venim!' and 'Life of Crime'. Still, it passed 620K and should have no problems closing well over 700K.

 

- The next place is occupied by Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy, that had a nice drop and finally passed the 1M border (in the process it became no. 9 for the year). It should end up with around 1.1M. Quite good of a result. Also, it's GoTG's first weekend in release when the good drop wasn't because of the huge theatre count. 

An interesting thing to note is that Walt Disney movies get by far the widest releases around here. From the first 5 widest openings ever, 4 are Disney movies (the exception: 'The Hobbit: DOS', that holds the first place). Also, from the 7 films that opened this year on more than 70 screens, 5 where Disney (including 'The Pirate Fairy' and 'Planes'), with 'Captain America: WS' actually being the second widest release ever.

 

- Into the Storm dropped a huge 70% in it's second weekend ---> total bomb.

 

- Lucy, as always, had a good drop (34%). It passed 'Godzilla' and 'Pompeii' on the yearly chart and by the next weekend will pass 'Maleficent' to become no. 4.

 

- If I Stay and As Above, So Below dropped big in their second outings: 56% and 64% respectively ---> bomb territory again.

 

Here's the top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- The Equalizer

- Dans la cour

- Planşa (local movie)

 

Denzel Washington is not very well known here. His last 3 movies ('2 Guns', 'Flight', 'Safe House') all opened between 15.000 - 20.000 admissions. If 'The Equalizer' follows suit, it should avoid being a bomb.

 

The other two movies will probably do insignificant numbers.

 

Overall, there's a good chance 'The Maze Runner' leads again. 

Edited September 22, 2014 by James

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Another decent weekend and the first in over a month that increased from the previous one.

 

- In first place, The Equalizer overperformed and opened way above the typical Denzel movie with almost 28.000 admissions and (and $ 165K). In comparison, 'Safe House', 'Flight' and '2 Guns' all opened with less than 20.000 adm. The reason: adult audiences, although not the driving force, were severly neglected lately. 'The Equalizer' will face harsh competition next week, when 'Dracula Untold' and 'Gone Girl' open, but even with so, a total of 500K+ is likely.

 

- In second, The Maze Runner fell harder than expected (-55%), but even so, it still made in it's second outing almost as much as 'Divergent' made in it's first. It's also way ahead of the first 'Hunger Games' through the same point and should stabilize next weekend, even with competition from 'Dracula Untold'.

 

- The third spot is occupied again by The House of Magic that (incredibly) increased 16% in it's 7th weekend. With no competition for the next month it should be the only choice for families and that should carry the animated hit to over 550K, a big total for an unknown movie.

 

-  But 'The House of Magic' wasn't the only one that increased. Let's be Cops gained 5% this week. The projections for it's end game keep increasing and a finish norh of 800K seems to be in the cards.

 

- Lucy proved again it is a WOM phenomenon. It stayed flat in the 9th weekend. 1.2M+ is bound to happen at this point.

 

- Guardians of the Galaxy had a good 15% drop. 1.1M remains the target.

 

- The local comedy America, venim! (America, here we come!) fell 55% after it's OW. That usually is a pretty bad drop. Add the fact that this is a local movie (so it should have had a lighter drop), the cheap ticket price and the big number of screens and the drop becomes a HUGE one. 

 

- If I Stay and Into the Storm stabilized in their third weekend, falling 14% and 36% respectively. But that's too little, too late.

 

- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles re-entered Top 10 after a good 25% drop. Still, it's overall gross is disappointing.

 

- Dans la cour, the other opener, bombed hard even though it was in limited release. 

 

Here's the Top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Dracula Untold

- Gone Girl

- Terapie pentru crimă (Therapy for Murder) (local movie)

- Wakolda

 

Dracula Untold is a wild card, but not because it will bomb (that's very unlikely). The reason: movies with an ancient / medieval historical setting are almost always hits here. Just looking at 2014: '300: Rise of an Empire' is the biggest film of the year, 'Pompeii' is in Top 10, 'Hercules' (The Rock's movie) and 'The Legend of Hercules' (Kellan Lutz's movie) are both Top 15 titles. So the question is: how far can 'Dracula' go? An opening over 30.000 adm is likely.

 

Gone Girl will probably do decent for itself.

 

The other two movies - flop / bomb. 

Edited September 29, 2014 by James

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Finally, a very good weekend and that thanks to monstruous business from 'Dracula Untold' and a nice job from the holdovers.

 

- As I said in last week's post, Dracula Untold was bound to be big. It had the sure receipe for success here: a historical setting with massive action scenes. But the opening was beyond any expectations. 'Dracula' had the sixth highest OW of the year, with 57.184 admissions (and $ 311K). With that, it's guaranteed over 1M and (very possibly) a place in Top 10 for the year.

 

- In second, The Equalizer held nicely in it's second frame, off just 37%. Over 18.000 tickets were sold for it, the number your typical Denzel movie opens with. 'A Walk Among The Tombstones' and 'The November Man' will hit it hard next week. Still,it should close well over 500K, and that's a win.

 

- In third, Gone Girl opened with 16.826 adm. That's a bit better than 'Prisoners' last year, but that's not saying much. A disappointing start overall.

 

- The Maze Runner fell 45% in it's third weekend. That's still way ahead of 'Divergent' and the first 'Hunger Games' through the same point and it's a decent hold considering the huge opening for 'Dracula'. 700K is still in play.

 

- The House of Magic continues to amaze. It fell a measly 5%. When all is said and done, it should be over 550K, a very good result for an unknown property.     

 

- Let's Be Cops, Lucy and Guardians of the Galaxy all had good drops, in the 31-35% range.

 

- America, venim! and If I Stay close the Top 10, fading off quickly.

 

Here's the top:

 

 

The overall 2014 box office is running 19.5 % ahead of 2013.

 

Next week's openers:

 

- A Walk Among The Tombstones

- The November Man

- What If

- Q.E.D (local drama)

 

Liam Neeson is well known here. 'Taken 2' was a hit and 'Non-Stop' also did good business, opening over 30.000 admissions. That's rising the bar too high, but an opening over 20.000 admissions shoud be a piece of cake.

 

Opening the same weekend as 'A Walk Among The Tombstones' and only two weeks after 'The Equalizer' shoud limit 'The November Man''s audience. How much though, it remains to be seen.

 

Teen romantic movies don't do well here. Just look at 'The Fault In Our Stars' or 'If I Stay'. It would be a miracle if 'What If' debuts above 10.000 admissions.

 

The local movie will, as always, bomb. 

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Shitty days are back. We had 4 new openers, all in the disappointment - flop - bomb - mega 'I can't fuckin believe how bad this is' bomb territory and 'Dracula Untold' ruled the box office again with no problems.

 

- Dracula maintained it's top position after a 52% slide. That's an ok-ish drop considering it's huge OW. 1M is still well within reach.

 

- In second place, A Walk Among The Tombstones opened to 15.819 admissions (and $ 87K). That's only half of 'Non-Stop''s OW earlier this year. Considering the strong competition in the coming weeks and the not-so-great WOM it's safe to say the latest Neeson flick will fade fast.

 

- Despite opening lower than expected last weekend, Gone Girl had a good 37% drop and thanks to strong WOM it will end with a decent gross.

 

- In fourt place, The November Man opened to a little over 10.000 adm on 46 theatres. That's a bomb right there and it's no wonder considering the crowded thriller-action market.

 

- In face of competition, The Equalizer dropped a harsh 59%. Ultimately,it should earn around 600K and that's a success for it.

 

- The Maze Runner continues to do strong business. It fell 39% and has totaled 530K so far.

 

- The House of Magic had another excellent hold, off only 14%. It's at 495K right now.

 

- Let's Be Cops and Guardians of the Galaxy both had nice holds.

 

- How To Train Your Dragon 2 re-enters Top 10 in it's 17th weekend (lol), after increasing 11% (last weekend it increased 14%). It has grossed a very good 755K so far. This just shows how neglected are the family audiences lately.

 

- Outside Top 10, the third opener, What If, opened to under 1.000 admissions from 7 theatres, but the reasult is anything but surprising: teen romance movies are dead here.

 

- The local movie Q.E.D. was the bomb of all bombs. It opened to 2.650 adm from 46 theatres and thanks to cheap tickets it actually earned less than 'What If'. Local market - dead.

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Annabelle

- Before I Go To Sleep

- Kill The Messenger

- Poarta Alba (The White Gate - local movie)

 

Horror movies don't do well here. 'The Conjuring' was no exception. If 'Annabelle' manages to reach that's movies 11.800 adm OW, it should be deemed a success.

 

The other two movies will likely flop and the local movie will bomb.

Edited October 13, 2014 by James

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Very good weekend, thanks to INSANE holds and 'Annabelle''s strong debut.

 

- Unbelievably, Dracula Untold rules the box office for a third week in a row, sliding a very good 20% to 21.700 admissions. It's 154.620 adm total and 805K gross so far are way ahead of 'Maleficent' through the same point (and that despite 'Maleficent''s huge 3D advantage). In fact, by the next weekend, Dracula should surpass the Disney movie in admissions. That being said, there's a really strong chance it ends up in Top 5 for the year. Great performance!

 

- In second place, Annabelle is the biggest horror opener ever. It sold 21.010 adm. and brought in 111K.  Even if that seems nothing to brag home about, it still is mighty impressive for the horror genre, that is DEAD here. It amost doubled 'The Conjuring''s OW and made almost the same as 'As Above, So Below' in it's entire run (note: the ranking does NOT include movies like 'Dracula Untold' or 'Underworld', that are more action than horror).

 

- Despite supposedly bad WOM, A Walk Among The Tombstones eased a light 23%. It's OW was in the same ballpark as 'Gone Girl''s and it's second weekend drop is much better. That's a huge surprise and bodes well for it's final gross, that should surpass 400K. Another win for Neeson.

 

- The second opener, Before I Go To Sleep, floped with 11.000 adm. Not much to say about it. In fact, it did more than I thought it would.

 

- Speaking of Gone Girl, David Fincher's drama turned into a WOM event. It eased just 6% this weekend and already hit a 3x multiplier. It should easily finish above 500K. Big win for it!

 

- In sixth, Kill The Messenger was the second bomb opener.

 

- The Equalizer dropped a light 18%. It's gross stands at a very good 475K, way above the Denzel range.

 

- The House of Magic confirms once again it's animated hit status. In it's 10th weekend, it increased a huge 41%.It now made 532K and the final projection for it keeps going up. 600K is now an easy target (it also surpassed the 6x multiplier border). In fact, let's take a look outside Top 10:

 

* 'Escape From Planet Earth' (+26% in it's 11th week)

* 'How To Train Your Dragon 2' (+10% in it's 18th week; this is the fourth weekend in a row when it increases!)

* 'Planes: Fire and Rescue' (+85% in it's 14th week)

 

Family audiences are starved! 'The Boxtrolls' openes in two weeks and it will be huge (it'll likely make more on OW than 'Paranorman' in it's entire run), especially considering it has a competition free market till 'Penguins of Madagascar' opens, a month later ('Big Hero 6' - January 23 2015).

 

- The only bad drop from pretty much the entire chart came from The November Man, that fell 50%.

 

- The Maze Runner closes the top, after a measly 10% drop. The total stands at a very good 571K. It already made more than 'The Hunger Games' and 'Divergent' in their entire run.

 

Top 10 this week:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Fury

- Serena

- Two Night Stand

- Automata (SF)

- English Vinglish (comedy)

- Cuscrii (local comedy)

 

A very crowded schedule. And the week after that we'll have another 6 new releases.

 

Fury has Brad Pitt, but it's limited by it's adults-only appeal (here, young audience are the driving force). A debut in the 15.000-20.000 adm area is likely.

 

Serena also has a big star, Jennifer Lawrence, but the trailers looked dull and the marketing also wasn't brilliant. It should get a pass if it goes over 10.000 adm.

 

All the other movies should end up under the 10.000 adm border.

 

Also, here's a look at TOP 20 for 2014 (the bolded titles are still in theatres):

 

Edited October 21, 2014 by James

[James]

HIGHEST GROSSING CBMs 

 

 

In the honor of 'Avengers: Age of Ultron''s trailer release, I made a list of the highest grossing superhero movies in Romania:

 

 

NOTES: 

- Batman Forever is the most attended CBM ever, with 291.073 admission, but it's gross was only $18.000. That's an average ticket price of $0,06 for it! That was the period after the fall of communism and the reason why I have data for movies only beginning with 1993. 

 

- The Dark Knight Rises is the second most attended CBM ever. 

 

- Thor 2 is the highest grossing SH movie ever; it's also the 3rd highest in attendance and had the best OW for a CBM. 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' might have a chance to beat it.

Edited October 23, 2014 by James

[James]

TOP 50 MOST ATTENDED MOVIES

 

This is a list of the most attended movies in Romania's history. As you can see, the oldest ones are from 1993, because that was pretty much the year the cinema business began here, after the fall of communism. There are quite a few movies that appeared earlier, but were introduced in cinemas in 1993.

 

From these 50 films, only 11 are 21st century movies. Of these 11, most are franchises: 2 Hobbit films, 2 Ice Age, 1 Twilight, 1 Bond, 1 Pirates of the Caribbean. There are 4 original ones: Avatar, The Wolf of Wall Street, Frozen and 2012.

 

It's also worth notting that there are 2 local movies that made the list: The Second Fall of Constantinople (the most attended ever) and Live Paradise.

 

And one last thing: even though these movies have high level of attendance, the biggest part of them had measly grosses because of the insignificant ticket prices back in the day. For example, The Second Fall of Constantinople only made aprox. $35.400 (that means a ticket was around 2 cents   ). With today's average ticket price, it's admissions would translate into around $7.5-8M.

 

Avatar is the highest grossing movie all time with $6.4M, followed by the two Hobbit films with around $2.5M each.

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2014 by James

[Tower]

That ticket price for Constantinople is crazy. It had 1.3M admissions, which is about as much as Avatar made in Israel, But Avatar made over $13M to Constatinople's $35K...