2012 Best Picture Thread

[Dementeleus]

You do realise that Schumacher directed Phantom right? This is Hooper, kinda not the same thing.

All I'm saying is, every so often, a "sure thing" isn't. (I wasn't so much talking about Oscar as box-office, though.)

[riczhang]

But he could still win Screenplay, right? That's not exactly the strongest category this year. Who's his biggest adversary there?

Probaby Wes Anderson or Michael Haneke. I'm predicting Haneke right now simply because I really don't see the Academy awarding The Master an Oscar. It really is just so far away from their comfort zone. Boal has a chance, but I doubt that he'd win another for essentially writing a similar movie to The Hurt Locker.There's also Tarantino, but I really doubt that. A nom probably, but a win is out of the question right now.

[CoolioD1]

Falling Down and The Lost Boys are better than any of the TV/movies Hooper has directed.

[riczhang]

All I'm saying is, every so often, a "sure thing" isn't. (I wasn't so much talking about Oscar as box-office, though.)

True. Les Mis is a much better bet to do well at the Oscars than the box-office.

[riczhang]

Falling Down and The Lost Boys are better than any of the TV/movies Hooper has directed.

I personally think that Damned United, King's Speech, Elizabeth, and John Adams are all better than both of those.

[RichWS]

You're a Hooper man, aren't ya? I hear what Telemachos is saying though: I remember thinking Phantom would be huge after that trailer. Les Mis certainly seems more likely to succeed but you never know.

[Jake Gittes]

More realistically, although I didn't think Argo was any sort of a masterpiece (just a strong old-fashioned thriller, well-made in every aspect, but not one that I'll give much thought to a year from now), I think Affleck is the best contender for Director at this point, followed by Spielberg and only then by Hooper. I'm pretty certain the voters remember how recent Hooper's last Oscar was. With Spielberg, I think it'd be awkward if he won 2 directing Oscars for films that didn't win Picture (but I don't think it'd be a make-or-break situation for most voters). But absolutely nothing stops Affleck from winning for Argo a la Mike Nichols for The Graduate and Soderbergh for Traffic. (Interestingly, The Graduate only won Director out of numerous nominations, and Traffic only lost BP after winning in its four other nominations). Outside contenders would be Russell and QT, but the former needs to pick up a whole lot of additional buzz and the latter needs to really get people united behind him. I have no doubt that Django will be a great film and QT is more established in Hollywood now than ever, but that didn't help Fincher at all. I don't really think Lee or Bigalow have any chance of winning, no matter the reception. But we'll see.Speaking about Fincher, the funny thing is, if he won Director two years ago and Les Mis turned out as good as expected, Hooper would be a virtual lock to win this year and we probably wouldn't be considering Affleck or Spielberg nearly as seriously.

[CoolioD1]

I personally think that Damned United, King's Speech, Elizabeth, and John Adams are all better than both of those.

I'd take Michael Douglas going into a McDonalds and taking everyone hostage over shitty burgers and him kicking Nazi ass over those things. Muthafucker should've won an Oscar for that.

[RichWS]

More realistically, although I didn't think Argo was any sort of a masterpiece (just a strong old-fashioned thriller, well-made in every aspect, but not one that I'll give much thought to a year from now), I think Affleck is the best contender for Director at this point, followed by Spielberg and only then by Hooper. I'm pretty certain the voters remember how recent Hooper's last Oscar was. With Spielberg, I think it'd be awkward if he won 2 directing Oscars for films that didn't win Picture (but I don't think it'd be a make-or-break situation for most voters). But absolutely nothing stops Affleck from winning for Argo a la Mike Nichols for The Graduate and Soderbergh for Traffic. (Interestingly, The Graduate only won Director out of numerous nominations, and Traffic only lost BP after winning in its four other nominations).

Spielberg and Affleck seem most likely. For the life of me, I just can't see Hooper winning again so soon. Les Mis would basically have to be so incredible, our collective eyes melt.

[riczhang]

With Spielberg, I think it'd be awkward if he won 2 directing Oscars for films that didn't win Picture (but I don't think it'd be a make-or-break situation for most voters).

Don't think that this will be a problem. Spielberg's one of the greats, and if I remember correctly only 1 of John Ford's 4 BD Oscars had a corresponding BP win (How Green Was My Valley in 1941).But I still think Hooper. He is the logical choice at this point, at least IMO. And, I think that Hooper's probably got the BAFTA, and maybe even the GG for BD in the bag. (Big Maybe on the GG, but 150% certain for the BAFTA) Especially the BAFTA, since he lost to Fincher last time. Edited November 18, 2012 by riczhang

[Jake Gittes]

But he could still win Screenplay, right? That's not exactly the strongest category this year. Who's his biggest adversary there?

To counter Riczhang, I think he has a damn great chance there. As I've said before I don't believe there is anything award-worthy about Amour's screenplay, which leaves us with Wes Anderson, PTA and QT. Tarantino's film will definitely be the most commercially successful of the three and most likely as well received critically, and he was clearly snubbed for IB in favor of The Hurt Locker (which, just like Amour, was a screenplay far less rich in plotting, dialogue, characterisation and imagination than his). PTA has three previously-received nominations at his side, as well as no wins, but yeah I think The Master is a kind of film that's a dark horse at best here. Edited November 18, 2012 by Jake Gittes

[CoolioD1]

I think Affleck wins the Globe for sure.

[riczhang]

I think Affleck wins the Globe for sure.

Eh.... I'd rank GG right now tied in first Hooper and Spielberg (They'll go with Spielberg if they want to go starwhoring like the Globes love to do, even though sometimes by giving it to the biggest celebrity might be a good decision like last year's Scorsese win, which I loved) and then in third is Affleck. I don't think that Argo does enough to give Affleck any director wins by merit, but if the Globes want to reward the biggest celebrity then there's Spielberg way out in front of Affleck. Not impossible though.

[riczhang]

To counter Riczhang, I think he has a damn great chance there. As I've said before I don't believe there is anything award-worthy about Amour's screenplay, which leaves us with Wes Anderson, PTA and QT. Tarantino's film will definitely be the most commercially successful of the three and most likely as well received critically, and he was clearly snubbed for IB in favor of The Hurt Locker (which, just like Amour, was a screenplay far less rich in plotting, dialogue, characterisation and imagination than his). PTA has three previously-received nominations at his side, as well as no wins, but yeah I think The Master is a kind of film that's a dark horse at best here.

It's a Dark Horse definitely. And, I think that The Master is the dark horse because it's the best script this year that has a good shot at a nomination. The Academy rarely ever rewards the best scripts of the year IMO, so I'm very wary of predicting the best script of the year thus far.

[Jake Gittes]

Hooper actually has a better chance of winning the Globe than the Oscar because that's where TSN got to clear up. Plus, it's Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and Les Miserables is star-studded and known all around the world. Affleck would probably be too boring for them, but they'd eat Hooper up this time around.

[RichWS]

I'll allow that Hooper could very well win the Globe. The Oscar is a whole other story.

[riczhang]

Hooper actually has a better chance of winning the Globe than the Oscar because that's where TSN got to clear up. Plus, it's Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and Les Miserables is star-studded and known all around the world. Affleck would probably be too boring for them, but they'd eat Hooper up this time around.

I think that the GG is between Spielberg and Hooper. Hooper if they want to makeup for the TKS loss, but Spielberg if they want to go starwhoring. Hooper's got the BAFTA locked up though.

[Cmasterclay]

Update1. Les Mis (No reason to bump it when nobody has seen it yet and it looks so brilliant)2. Argo3. Lincoln4. Silver Linings5. Life of Pi6. Zero Dark Thirty7. Beasts of the Southern Wild8. Amour 9. The Master (Just barely)First Five offFlightDjango UnchainedMoonrise KingdomThe SessionsThe Impossible

[RichWS]

The only reason I have it at #4 is because nobody's seen it yet.

[Dementeleus]

Nothing against Affleck at all, but I really hope the Academy doesn't reward him (or ARGO) -- the last couple years they've tended to go for rewarding solid-but-unexceptional material, and I'd rather it didn't continue.