Winter SOTM 8: Who wants to be a Star Wars (not quite) Millionaire - D/L Sun January 3rd 11:59pm

[Infernus]

19 minutes ago, Filmovie said:

 

Yes I know, SW is the most important movie of the Game: but can we value someone's "BoxOffice Skills" by the ability to predict one movie that has trascended all BoxOffice rules? 

 

Nevermind, mine wasn't a critique

 

 

A certain major aspect of 'boxoffice skiils' can be very well portrayed and valued through predicting Star Wars too, in fact seldom does a case comes along where that skill is put to use as much as in this one. Its true that applying knowledge of past behavior of similar movies of similar times and that of the current market trends to a movie's run makes up the very basic essence of box office predicting (more correctly extrapolating) but another irrefutable truth of the matter is that each movie's run is, as a whole, unique. Present trends and available past data have to be applied but in a filtered manner, specifically bending them around and modifying them before applying them, to suit the ways of that particular movie's run as we began to understand more and more about it(s run). Mostly though that doesn't play enough of a major role for most movies tend to follow the 'trends' and the 'box office rules'. But here we have a film, a major one, once again defying those trends and rules and displaying a particularly surprising, amazing, memorable, bewildering run as the likes of Avatar or MBFGW. Actually its nowhere close to them but the run is still pretty rule defying and amazing for being a hitherto unseen mixture of a Mega-summer-blockbuster and something like Avatar. Anyways, we will have two weeks/three weekends of data to work on, understand and extract a generalization from by the deadline. To be seen is how well one can do that.

[MikeKaye42]

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? Yes
2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? Yes

4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? Yes (llifesaver)

7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? Yes
10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? Yes
 
16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? Yes
20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? Yes (Cut Short)
24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? 0
28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? 4
32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? No
 
40000   Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) Jedi
50000   Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release? void
60000   Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)? Yes
80000   Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game? No
100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game? Yes
 

[Plain Old Tele]

I am going to give you a list of questions, all with 2-4 possible answers.

You must start at question 1 and work down from there, no picking or choosing.

You can stop answering whenever you like

There are lifelines (I'll get to those later) 

 

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? YES

2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? YES

4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? YES

7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? NO

10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? YES

 

16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? NO

20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? YES

24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? TWO - CUT SHORT

28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? ONE

32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? NO - VOID

 

40000   Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) JEDI

50000   Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release? USA

60000   Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)?

80000   Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game?

100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game?

[Wrath]

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? *YES*

2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? *YES*

4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? *YES*

7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? *NO*

10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? *YES*

 

16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? *NO*

20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? *YES*

24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? *VOID*

28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? *Two* - Life Saver

32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? *NO* - Cut Short

 

40000   Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) - *EMPIRE*

50000   Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release?

60000   Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)?

80000   Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game?

100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game?

Edited January 3, 2016 by Wrath

[bcf26]

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? YES

2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? YES

4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? YES

7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015?NO

10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? YES

 

16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? YES (void) 

20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? YES 

24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars?

28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1?

32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B?

 

40000   Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) 

50000   Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release?

60000   Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)?

80000   Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game?

100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game?

[kayumanggi]

01000    Y
02000    Y
04000    Y
07000    N
10000    Y

 

16000    N
20000    Y
24000    (VOID)
28000    ONE (LIFE SAVER)
32000    N (CUT SHORT)

 

40000    RETURN OF THE JEDI
50000    USA

Edited January 3, 2016 by kayumanggi

[darkelf]

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? YES
2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? YES
4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? YES
7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? NO
10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? YES
 
16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? NO CUT SHORT
20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? YES
24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? VOID
28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? ONE LIFESAVER

[Exxdee]

1000     Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? Yes
2000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? Yes
4000     Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? Yes
7000     Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? Yes
10000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? Yes
 
16000   Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? No CUT SHORT
20000   Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? Yes
24000   How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? 1 LIFESAVER
28000   How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? 1 W/E
32000   Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? VOID

Edited January 4, 2016 by Exxdee