BOT User Tracking 2/12-14 *4-day* Deadpool, How to be Single, Zoolander 2

[Wrath]

Edit - Make all predicts *4-day* please. I'm putting this at the top so hopefully folks won't miss it.

 

The doldrums are passing and we're back into the excitement. Honestly, these last few weeks haven't really been *that* bad, especially compared to early September and some of the weeks in there. But they certainly weren't as interesting as *this* week is going to be. I know I'm fired up to see Deadpool, but it remains to be seen just exactly how many millions of other folks are too. Will Zoolander 2 recreate the pop-culture success of the first Zoolander or will it merely recreate the kinda paltry boxoffice run of the first? And how well will How to be Single connect, presumably with female movie-goers? Should be a fun weekend to predict.

 

Please provide your 2/12-14 Opening Weekend *4-day* predicts for, 

 

Deadpool

How to be Single

Zoolander 2

 

Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Wrath

[WrathOfHan]

Deadpool: 67M
Single: 24.5M

Zoolander: 19M

Edited February 11, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

Deadpool - $66million

Zoolander - $32million

How to be Single - $24million

Edited February 8, 2016 by DAJK

[Wrath]

My bad, forgot about Presidents day. *4-day* predicts for everything, please.

[Blankments]

Deadpool - 85.195M

How to Be Single - 26.682M

Zoolander 2 - 22.340M

[CJohn]

Deadpool - 65.6M

Zoolander - 20.3M

How to be Single - 23.9M

[BadAtGender]

This is the hill I die on.

 

Deadpool - 94m

How to Be Single - 33m

2oolander - 28m

[Ethan Hunt]

Deadpool-56M

Zoolander 2-36M

How to be single-24M

[department store basement]

Deadpool: 63m

HTBS: 28m

Zoolander 2: 23m

 

I don't see how HTBS can open lower than Z2 now. When the Z2 reviews came in the anticipation for it dropped like a rock.

 

Edited February 11, 2016 by department store basement

[Wrath]

10 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

This is the hill I die on.

 

Deadpool - 94m

How to Be Single - 33m

2oolander - 28m

 

Well, this weekend is a good weekend to die, but I admire your faith.

 

Sadly, I forgot again. Numbers will be up shortly.

[Wrath]

BO.com predicts 93M for Deadpool, 4-day, while Deadline says 62.5M and MovieWeb says 58M. That makes for a much more interesting weekend than the "everything's about 10M" stuff we've had for the last few weeks. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm quivering with excitement. Or maybe that's because I'm seeing Deadpool tonight and I can't wait.

 

Or maybe its because I'm taking Wrathette #1 to see it with me and Mrs Wrath approved it despite not being entirely clear on how non-child friendly Deadpool is likely to be. Eh, Wrathette #1 watches The Walking Dead when she thinks we're not looking, and her sense of humor matches up with this perfectly. I think she might be slightly traumatized, but it'll be worthwhile because she'll love it and if Mrs Wrath was going to divorce me over something like this, we'd have parted ways years ago.

 

At first I thought our predicts were really optimistic, but that was before I wrote down everyone else's and now I just think we're kinda optimistic. We're the highest for How to be Single and Zoolander 2 (and with a really small ratio for How to be Single, which is historically really bad), but not by a ton. So we're optimistic, but not wildly so. We're the second highest on Deadpool, but we're *18M* lower than BO.com, so other folks are even crazier than we are.

 

Speaking of predictors, naturally just as I add ShowBuzzDaily.com to the permanent roster, it produces only 3-day predicts so it doesn't give me anything useable. Misc, this week, is MovieWeb.com which to its credit didn't appear to just copy anyone else for its predicts.  

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (10 for everything) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Deadpool

Mean: 75M

Median: 69M

StnDev: 14.82M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.76%

High: 102M

Low: 56M

 

BO.com 93M

Deadline 62.5M   

Misc 58M

Variety 70M

 

 

How to be Single

Mean: 25.3M

Median: 25M

StnDev: 3.76M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.88%

High: 33M

Low: 20M

 

BO.com 19M

Deadline 23M   

Misc 20M

Variety 20M

 

Zoolander 2

Mean: 26.7M

Median: 26.0M

StnDev: 5.38M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.13%

High: 36M

Low: 19M

 

BO.com 22M

Deadline 23M   

Misc 25M

Variety 23M

Edited February 11, 2016 by Wrath

[Wrath]

On 2/11/2016 at 4:18 AM, DamienRoc said:

This is the hill I die on.

 

Deadpool - 94m

How to Be Single - 33m

2oolander - 28m

 

Turns out, today *wasn't* a good day to die. For Deadpool, anyway.

 

You're toast on the other two, though.

[Wrath]

Remember, these were all 4-day predicts. This might have been our worst weekend of predicting, ever, though pretty much everyone did god-awful. On the bright side, despite it being our very worst predict, ever (narrowly beating The Visit), we still managed to be the second best predict on Deadpool.

 

Deadpool

Prediction: 75.0M +/- 14.82M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 152.2M (off by 77.2M, so 5.21 stndev)

That's just terrible, and the only reason it was that "low" was because we had an unusually high ratio for a movie expected to open decently. On the bright side, as I noted we were the second best predict, and even the best predict still underestimated Deadpool's 4-day by a mere 59.8M. Sometimes you just have to take it in the shorts and move on. Our high predict of 102M by mahnamahna was the closest.

 

How to be Single

Prediction: 25.3M +/- 3.76M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 19.9M (off by 5.4M, so 1.42 stndev)

We predicted poorly, and while it was objectively our "best" predict of the week, everyone else was surprisingly close on this one while we went high. Best predict was Maxmoser3 with our low predict at 20M.

 

Zoolander 2

Prediction: 26.7M +/- 5.38M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 15.9M (off by 10.8M, so 2.01 stndev)

Again a bad predict, and while we were the worst, everyone else was off by a lot, too. Best predict was our low predict, this time by WrathofHan at 19M.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Wrath

[Wrath]

Also, for fun, here's a top 5 tally of who's been closest the most.

 

1. Talismanring 10

2. Maxmoser3 8

3. Ethan Hunt 7

4(tie). Panamovie 6

4(tie). WrathofHan 6

Edited February 17, 2016 by Wrath

[Blankments]

How did Wrathette #1 enjoy Deadpool?

[Wrath]

On 2/21/2016 at 11:09 PM, Blankments said:

How did Wrathette #1 enjoy Deadpool?

 

She thought it was awesome and hilarious, but slightly traumatizing. I think she'd have preferred to not see the pegging scene at all, but seeing it with her dad was doubly bad. 95% of the movie she loved, though.