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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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On Tuesday, March 28, 2017 at 9:42 PM, Mrstickball said:

When do presales start for FF8, and what comparables are going to be out there? Warcraft is the only one I can think of that went on sale 2 weeks prior to release that did well (at least starting out).

Could start tomorrow. 

WC rolled up big in 3 days but then increased 10% daily until 2 days before OD.

Both BatB and Kong went up 22% daily after the 3rd day of PS.

If it starts tomorrow I think it won't jump up like WC but bigger than Kong in its first 3 days and probably has similar daily increases.  

My prediction if it starts tomorrow afternoon. Pops to 4m by Monday evening (Kong got to 1.8m) then does 20x that for a final PS number.

80m PS

300m OD

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10 hours ago, Olive said:

If it only makes 300M od, the high end for its total would be 2.5B(drop in USD from FF7).

You're expecting more?. I thought the death of PW boosted the last one and made it a phenomenon. KFP3 was expected to do 3-4x KFP2 based on market growth but only increased 60%. KFP2 did more than double of any toon at the time. It was a phenom. 

No HLWD movie has cleared 1.5B since FF7.  There hasn't been market growth since then. Like TA1/TA2 in domestic and other phenoms. I could see a drop off. Hard to beat a record number. 

It's just a guess but I think it could be 300od/975ow/2000total. 

It'll need a 9.4 rating to get higher. 

Edited by POTUS
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3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

You're expecting more?. I thought the death of PW boosted the last one and made it a phenomenon. KFP3 was expected to do 3-4x KFP2 based on market growth but only increased 60%. KFP2 did more than double of any toon at the time. It was a phenom. 

No HLWD movie has cleared 1.5B since FF7. Like TA1/TA2 in domestic and other phenoms. I could see a drop off. Hard to beat a record number. 

Take the service fee away, the drop is more obvious.

Sequels seldom drop in China.

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7 hours ago, Mrstickball said:

Where can we directly look at F8 preorder #s? Is it Maoyan or Gewara?

 

I can't find any specific #s on Maoyan, but I can't read Mandarin so...

 

https://maoyan.com/films/248700

Chrome on 

phone or computer can autoranslate for you.

This is the April 14th page

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/?date=2017-04-14  you'll see an 8 in the title

3 digits is 1m.   100.0

Only 30 shows listed and PS is not budging right now

256y1b5.png

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Edited by POTUS
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They just added 2000 show and PS on the move finally.  yesterday was a false start. 

           Shows    PS     

1500       2k       11k

1600    4.7k     170k

1700    7.5k     300k

1800     11k     550k

1900     14k     873k

2000     15k    1.37m

2100     17k    1.58m

2300     19k    1.84m

 

Days                 OD

Out       WC     PSm

14         5.1      50    

13         8.7      29

12       12.0      21

11       15.0     16.6

WC was extremely front loaded. FF8 will out perform WC multies. Just a base line guide here.

 

I think Kong may be better to look at. Got to 1.8m Monday night.  PS went on to 20x and OD was 80x.

 

I'll have an OD projection in a few hours

Edited by POTUS
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54 minutes ago, Olive said:


[13 days+ 5 hours]
The Fate of the Furious

midnights : 304k
OD:1.08M

an hour later,

midnights : 345k
OD:1.45M

Its Saturday presales are quite big too, 827k

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5 minutes ago, Olive said:

an hour later,

midnights : 345k
OD:1.45M

Its Saturday presales are quite big too, 827k

 

Based on this, although it's very far out, do you think FF8 has the chance to overtake FF7?

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4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

Based on this, although it's very far out, do you think FF8 has the chance to overtake FF7?

A monstous start is no question, but I'm not sure about it's legs.

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