Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[keysersoze123]

yesterday's increase in raw yuan was slightly higher than wednesday but % wise there was almost no growth. May be presales are tapering. We have to see how things go today.

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

yesterday's increase in raw yuan was slightly higher than wednesday but % wise there was almost no growth. May be presales are tapering. We have to see how things go today.

I've been looking for the % growth to drop to 20% for 2 days now. If revenue just matches yesterday it'll still be over 20%. They are adding 5-10k show daily. That keep the revenue increasing a bit. Last night was 24.6 at 1am up 5.1m. Looking for 5.5m or more. Will know run rate by noon. It averaged 340k yesterday

 

Edit. The hourly is all over the place.  500-700k. Waiting for it to settle down. Will be above 25% again. 

By the time/if it slows down it will be time to ramp up again on tuesday. 

Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

Just went up 500k in 30 minutes

Either Maoyan is broken or SW7 is going down.

Did Vinny go into the ICU?

Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

its definitely showing bigger acceleration today than yesterday. one 30 minute spike may not mean much( may be there could have been bulk corporate bookings). Overall number is promising. Could hit 31-32m today

[abra]

14 hours ago, abra said:

[7 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 7.88m
Fri: 24.40m
Sat: 9.67m

 

[6 days+ 10 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 8.61m
Fri: 27.74m
Sat: 11.13m

[Olive]

FF7 had 104 attendance per showtime on ite opening day.

let's say FF8 will have 150k showtimes, it's opening day will be workday, per-show-attendance will be 80, multiple by 36 average ticket

432M yuan is the likely roof for its OD.

50M midnight

430M Friday

559M +30% Sat

420M -25% Sun

1.46B will the roof for its OW, no where near EP7 domestic($248M=1711M)

 

[keysersoze123]

Olive,

   So you dont think F8 will take midnight record . That seems pessimistic. I agree with rest of the weekend.

[Olive]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Olive,

   So you dont think F8 will take midnight record . That seems pessimistic. I agree with rest of the weekend.

Poeple have work on Friday, 50M is really huge.

[Olive]

Midnight showtimes 8,200

opening day 72,054

 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Olive said:

FF7 had 104 attendance per showtime on ite opening day.

let's say FF8 will have 150k showtimes, it's opening day will be workday, per-show-attendance will be 80, multiple by 36 average ticket

432M yuan is the likely roof for its OD.

50M midnight

430M Friday

559M +30% Sat

420M -25% Sun

1.46B will the roof for its OW, no where near EP7 domestic($248M=1711M)

 

I'm thinking at least 60% of 280k show times.  168k shows.

Possibly 62% of 290k. 180k. 

Add 20% to your roof. 1752.

 

Note. @Olive is often low and I am on the high side.

If I recall I was saying $400m was possible for FF7 early on and you were mid 300s. $390 total.

Same with Monster hunt.

No one thought RE6 was going to do over 150m OD when I nailed 200m early on. 

It can happen. It's CBO. Anything can happen.

 

I do get what you're saying though. A ceiling could be hit and normal model could deviate drastically

Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

Today it has been on fire. going to increase 35% !!! it looks like having 200m presales at this pace. I definitely think it will do better than Olive projections though SW7 OW seem tough. I also feel it will take midnight record despite being a friday. around 15K shows and around 60m yuan for midnights. OD around 450m and saturday sunday around 600/450 for 1560m OW !!!

[peludo]

Even with "pessimistic" projections , it is probable to do the second biggest OW ever, over TA and JW. Absurd.

[POTUS 2020]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Today it has been on fire. going to increase 35% !!! it looks like having 200m presales at this pace. I definitely think it will do better than Olive projections though SW7 OW seem tough. I also feel it will take midnight record despite being a friday. around 15K shows and around 60m yuan for midnights. OD around 450m and saturday sunday around 600/450 for 1560m OW !!!

They added more than 10k shows today. Biggest bump since day 1. I think that's why PS are moving. They will probably do 10k + per day now and ramp that up next wed/Thursday to 20/30k.

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, POTUS said:

They added more than 10k shows today. Biggest bump since day 1. I think that's why PS are moving. They will probably do 10k + per day now and ramp that up next wed/Thursday to 20/30k.

 

Please update your PS projections again. It looks pessimistic.

[Olive]

JTTW2 OD per-show attendance is 84, and that's limited by showtimes with Spring festival boost.

FF8 will definitely be lower.

[Olive]

From what I see, its presales are stronger in smaller cities than metropolises.

This will asure it have better weekday performance than normal blockbusters. 

[POTUS 2020]

26 minutes ago, Olive said:

JTTW2 OD per-show attendance is 84, and that's limited by showtimes with Spring festival boost.

FF8 will definitely be lower.

You keep going low and ill still go high. see where it falls in the middle

 

Big boost today 34-38%. May go to 34m but I put down 33m for 1am Saturday on the low end. The hourlies are still erratic and crazy

I have lowered PS bumps, OD PS multi, and the Fri multi (just a 17% bump on Sat) to lower levels than I think they'll be and it still comes out to $207m OW. The high end chart is within normal parameters and within the realm of possibility with just a sellout ceiling that could prevent SW7.  It'll be up to the matinees and the Audience rating.  9.2 would be nice on Maoyan

 

	JttW2					WC			FF8	low	end
PS 1am	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	gain	% gain
Sa	12.7					8.8					2.5
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0		12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0		14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9		17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0		20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	0.0%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		12.0	22.4%	41.4	8.4	25.5%	proj
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		15.0	25.0%	51.0	9.6	23.2%	proj
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		19.0	26.7%	62.0	11.0	21.6%	proj
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		26.0	36.8%	77.0	15.0	24.2%	proj
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		36.0	38.5%	102.0	25.0	32.5%	proj
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		70.0	94.4%	162.0	60.0	58.8%	proj
OD	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%				445.5		175.0%	proj
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.75
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $		FF8	high	end
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240		MN PS	% gain	OD PS		% gain
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225				2.5
FF8 Lo	446	1426		2851	65	207	413				5.4	2.9	116.0%
FF8 Hi	522	1723		3617	76	250	524				8.3	2.9	53.7%
											11.4	3.1	37.3%
									5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%
									6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%
									8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%
									10.0	25.0%	34.0	9.4	38.2%
											42.0	8.0	23.5%	proj
											52.0	10.0	23.8%	proj
											64.0	12.0	23.1%	proj
											82.0	18.0	28.1%	proj
											112.0	30.0	36.6%	proj
											180.0	68.0	60.7%	proj
											522.0		190.0%	proj
													2.90

[POTUS 2020]

CNY 2017

            BO       Shows

28th   809m   318k

29th   587       313

30th   546       310

Total 1942.

2400m possible in 3 days. JTTW and Buddies fell out of bed.  5% screens added since. 2520m is full capacity now.

JTTW and buddies 

28th   544m    189k

JTTW and KFY 

29th   354m    162k

30th   333m    164k

 

We need a lot of kids to skip school. 

Do teens get out at 2-3pm there?

500m Friday then a 30% Saturday bump is conceivable 

 

Yeah I know

 

[POTUS 2020]

Dp

Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS

[Gavin Feng]

JTTW2[6 days + 2 hours]

OD+MN = 38.4m

 

F8[6 days + 3 hours]

MN = 9.5m

OD = 31.72m

 

F8 OD speed increase is better than JTTW2 at the time.