junkshop36 Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 212m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I don't see any reason to increase or decrease my number. $194,500,000 weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnboy3434 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 $199 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 Ah, pity these didn't come in earlier, would have pushed us over the prior record. Still, always better to have more predicts than less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 (edited) Civil War Prediction: 204.8M +/- 11.51M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 179.1M (off by 25.7M, so 2.24 stndev) Ow. Just goes to show, just because everyone agrees OW will be just over $200M doesn't mean it actually will end up there. Variety nailed it, while we were slightly better than middle of the pack. Ruthie, in her(?) first ever prediction was the closest at 180M. Congrats! Also, after giving it quite a bit of thought (and consulting with a buddy who's a professor of statistics), I've hit upon a way to track how accurate everyone's been at predicting. I'm going to re-do Standard Deviations for each movie including the other sites' predictions (it'll take 5 minutes) and then track how many standard deviations everyone is off by on each prediction, including our overall projections as well as Variety, BO.com, etc. I'll then take an average (so, total stndev error divided by number of predictions) and I'll group people into categories by how many predictions they've made. As an example, Ruthie would be pretty tough to top right now, but that isn't fair to a WrathofHan who's made 121 predictions and has had the occasional non-bullseye. Probably something like "10 or less", "11-25", "26-50", and so forth. We'll see how it looks. Hopefully I'll get to it in the next few days, because I'm going to be really busy starting on Thursday. Edited May 9, 2016 by Wrath 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 (edited) What the hell? Edit - Ok, now it looks normal. That was weird. The post above didn't look... normal, lets say, for a bit. Seems ok now. Edited May 9, 2016 by Wrath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...