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BOT User Tracking 5/6-8 Civil War

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Civil War

Prediction: 204.8M +/- 11.51M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 179.1M (off by 25.7M, so 2.24 stndev)

Ow. Just goes to show, just because everyone agrees OW will be just over $200M doesn't mean it actually will end up there. Variety nailed it, while we were slightly better than middle of the pack. Ruthie, in her(?) first ever prediction was the closest at 180M. Congrats!

Also, after giving it quite a bit of thought (and consulting with a buddy who's a professor of statistics), I've hit upon a way to track how accurate everyone's been at predicting. I'm going to re-do Standard Deviations for each movie including the other sites' predictions (it'll take 5 minutes) and then track how many standard deviations everyone is off by on each prediction, including our overall projections as well as Variety, BO.com, etc.


I'll then take an average (so, total stndev error divided by number of predictions) and I'll group people into categories by how many predictions they've made. As an example, Ruthie would be pretty tough to top right now, but that isn't fair to a WrathofHan who's made 121 predictions and has had the occasional non-bullseye. Probably something like "10 or less", "11-25", "26-50", and so forth. We'll see how it looks. Hopefully I'll get to it in the next few days, because I'm going to be really busy starting on Thursday.

Edited by Wrath
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What the hell?


Edit - Ok, now it looks normal. That was weird. The post above didn't look... normal, lets say, for a bit. Seems ok now.

Edited by Wrath
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