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lab276

Summer vs. Summer $2385.1m -8.2%

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It's that time of year again!

 

2016                2017

301,891,797     247,154,515 (-18.2%)

169,436,865     175,472,856 (+3.6%)

181,477,798     173,467,241 (-5.5%)

247,635,737     218,489,061 (-11.8%)

190,373,719     267,834,004 (+40.7%)

218,750,239     210,990,996 (-3.5%)

361,776,797     292,401,346 (-19.2%)

291,413,387     213,828,776 (-26.6%)

310,794,511     280,754,735 (-9.7%)

323,894,969     303,325,696 (-6.4%)

248,828,598

295,511,972

283,985,335

329,751,902

254,080,388

187,164,992

164,705,279

149,630,996

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An uninteresting week IMO. They need to start opening stronger movies in the second week of May, The Great Gatsby opened to $50m in IM3's second weekend, I don't know why everyone seems to be so scared of the Marvel movies and giving them unnecessary space. It sucks the momentum out of the box office. Compare it to March, when Logan was followed by Kong which was followed by Beauty and the Beast which was followed by Power Rangers which was followed by Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell. The market will totally expand for movies people want to see.

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8 hours ago, lab276 said:

An uninteresting week IMO. They need to start opening stronger movies in the second week of May, The Great Gatsby opened to $50m in IM3's second weekend, I don't know why everyone seems to be so scared of the Marvel movies and giving them unnecessary space. It sucks the momentum out of the box office. Compare it to March, when Logan was followed by Kong which was followed by Beauty and the Beast which was followed by Power Rangers which was followed by Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell. The market will totally expand for movies people want to see.

They're following that model from May 26 until August 4th.

 

May 26th: POTC5 ($70 million+ 4-day) and Baywatch ($30 million+ 4-day)

June 2nd: Wonder Woman ($75 million+ OW) and Captain Underpants ($25 million+ OW)

June 9th: The Mummy ($40 million+ OW)

June 16th: Cars 3 ($55 million+ OW) and All Eyez on Me ($20 million+ OW)

June 23rd: Transformers 4 ($45 million+ OW/$70 million+ 5-day)

June 30th: Despicable Me 3 ($95 million+ OW) and The House ($25 million+ OW)

July 7th: Spider-Man - Homecoming ($110 million+ OW)

July 14th: War for the Planet of the Apes ($70 million+ OW)

July 21st: Dunkirk ($40 million+ OW) and Girls Trip ($20 million+ OW)

July 28th: The Emoji Movie ($35 million+ OW)

August 4th: The Dark Tower ($40 million+ OW)

 

Other than the last four weekends of summer, everything looks solid from Memorial Day on. At the very least, June 2017 is much stronger than last June's lineup (Dory being the only film to finish above $130 million DOM vs. a possible 4 releases doing it this June - WW, Cars 3, TF5, DM3)

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, lab276 said:

An uninteresting week IMO. They need to start opening stronger movies in the second week of May, The Great Gatsby opened to $50m in IM3's second weekend, I don't know why everyone seems to be so scared of the Marvel movies and giving them unnecessary space. It sucks the momentum out of the box office. Compare it to March, when Logan was followed by Kong which was followed by Beauty and the Beast which was followed by Power Rangers which was followed by Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell. The market will totally expand for movies people want to see.

 

My guess isn't the Marvel movie, but that studios want their movies to take advantage of Memorial Day and June weekdays (for the late legs) before they start shedding theaters.

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This has been an extremely poor May, you have to go right back to 1995 to find one with less admissions. There might end up being 50m fewer tickets sold this May, compared to 2013.

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Awful May. It will gross around 820M

June/July on the other hand look to be strong months. I am expecting around 1.2b and 1.35b

There are a few August openings that might surprise, but I can't see it reaching more than 900M

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Agreed.

 

June 2017 looks to be the most well-rounded June slate since 2012/2013 while July 2017 should be able to keep pace with past Julys. August 2017 will likely go near or even below August 2015's dismal numbers.

 

My guess:

Spoiler

June ($1.55 billion)

  1. Despicable Me 3: $110 million/$315 million
  2. Wonder Woman: $115 million/$310 million
  3. Cars 3: $70 million/$205 million
  4. Transformers - The Last Knight: $50 million 3-day/$80 million 5-day/$165 million
  5. The House: $35 million/$115 million
  6. Captain Underpants: $35 million/$110 million
  7. The Mummy: $40 million/$105 million
  8. All Eyez on Me: $35 million/$85 million
  9. Rough Night: $20 million/$70 million
  10. Baby Driver: $10 million/$40 million
  11. It Comes At Night: $10 million/$25 million
  12. 47 Meters Down: $2.5 million/$5 million

 

July ($1.16 billion)

  1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $130 million/$340 million
  2. Dunkirk: $55 million/$230 million
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $80 million/$220 million
  4. The Emoji Movie: $45 million/$165 million
  5. Girls Trip: $25 million/$110 million
  6. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $15 million/$40 million
  7. Atomic Blonde: $10 million/$35 million
  8. Wish Upon: $5 million/$10 million
  9. An Inconvenient Sequel: $3 million/$10 million

August ($612 million)

  1. The Dark Tower: $50 million/$175 million
  2. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $30 million/$110 million
  3. All Saints: $15 million/$75 million
  4. Annabelle - Creation: $30 million/$70 million
  5. Detroit: $20 million/$60 million
  6. The Glass Castle: $10 million/$40 million
  7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10 million/$35 million
  8. Logan Lucky: $5 million/$10 million
  9. Tulip Fever: $4 million/$12.5 million
  10. Kidnap: $3.5 million/$7.5 million
  11. Crown Heights: $3 million/$6 million
  12. Birth of the Dragon: $3 million/$6 million
  13. Polaroid: $2.5 million/$5 million

 

 

 

 

 

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Very poor summer so far, compared to the decade high point (2013), it's running about 90m behind in admissions, and even against 2014, the worst summer for ages, 17m tickets behind. I'm estimating an average ticket price of $8.88 for this year, which could end up being higher.

 

All est. admissions:

 

vs 2016

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vs 2014

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vs 2013

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June, and July will be the high points. August will die even with potential hits such as Hitman's Bodyguard, and Dark Tower. 

Fall 2017 should be interesting to see if it has the same fate as Fall 2015 or 2016. As I see IT, Ninjago, and Kingsman all make over $100 million total each in September. 

October will have Blade Runner 2049 gross like Gone Girl or Taken 2 instead of Gravity or The Martian, Happy Death Day will be a fall sleeper hit for Universal, and Mother will be a hit for Paramount.

The holiday season will have 4 $200+ million films, and November will bring cash with Marvel & DC bringing in big numbers as well as Coco. December will have Star Wars, PP3, and Coco as a holdover. 

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