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filmlover

How will Christmas/New Year's weekend play out?

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A thread to discuss the crowded Christmas weekend (and New Year's after) frame with 6 wide releases (plus The Shape of Water expanding to 700-800 theaters and Darkest Hour going "wide").

 

Star Wars will be #1 but #2-3 will be between Jumanji and Pitch Perfect 3, with Jumanji having the edge. The Greatest Showman and Ferdinand will be duking it out for spots #4-5.

 

Then there's the other openers, which won't factor too much tbh. Downsizing will likely open to a high single digits. All the Money in the World feels like a bit of a dud even with the Spacey/Plummer change (no one's really gonna want to see something so dark over the holidays). Father Figures is obviously a flop in waiting.

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I think Downsizing's aggressive marketing will at least push it into the double digits for its opening.

 

Coco is probably going to hold well. I'm not sure what it means for Ferdinand at the moment.

 

Jumanji and Pitch Perfect are going to be fine. However, if they're marketing The Greatest Showman as an event (which they are), there's a chance it surprises.

 

There's a lot of room for my opinion to change, there's a lot of room for a film to surge forwaes, and there's a lot of room for a film to fall flat on its face. This'll be an interesting holiday season for sure.

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Christmas 4-Day Weekends (Even though I suck at it, so this is me just pulling out of my but lol):

Star Wars: $150M

Jumanji (6-Day): $45M

Pitch Perfect 3: $32M

The Greatest Showman (6-Day): $28M

Ferdinand: $19M

Coco: $11M

All the Money: $10M

Disaster Artist: $8M

Downsizing: $8M

Wonder: $7M

Father Figures: $7M

Darkest Hour: $4M

Shape of Water: $3M

 

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3 day predictions:

 

Star Wars: 138M

Jumanji: 35M

Pitch Perfect 3: 30M

The Greatest Showman: 20M

Ferdinand: 15M

Downsizing: 9M

All the Money in the World: 7M

Father Figures: 6M

Coco: 5-6M

The Shape of Water: 4.5M

Wonder: 4M

Darkest Hour: 4M

The Disaster Artist: 3.5M

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26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm really curious how "wide" Focus plans on taking Darkest Hour that weekend. Its numbers have been very similar to The Danish Girl so far (which expanded to 400-something theaters on Christmas weekend).

Probably about the same.

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