LPLC Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) News expectations after this huge OW : Domestic = $400M-$500M $650M-$750M #3 best OW all time (maybe #2 tomorrow) EMEA : United Kingdom = $60M-$70M $90M-$110M #5 best OW all time (maybe #4 tomorrow and #4 in lc) France = $30M-$35M $45M-$55M #17 best OW all time Germany = $25M-$30M $30M-$40M #49 best OW all time Italy = $20M-$25M $25M-$30M #7 best OW all time Spain = $15M-$20M $25M-$30M #13 best OW all time Netherlands = $10M Poland = $5M-$10M Sweden = $5M-$10M Denmark = $5M-$10M Ukraine = $6M-$7M #1 best OW all time Norway = $5M Austria = $4M-$5M Belgium = $4M-$5M Switzerland = $4M-$5M Czech Republic = $3M Finland = $3M Hungary = $2M-$3M Portugal = $2M-$3M Greece = $2M-$3M Romania = $2M Slovakia = $1M Rest = $3M Total EMEA = $240M-$290M $281M-$353M Middle East : Saudi Arabia = $15M #1 best OW all time UAE = $10M #4 best OW all time Israel = $7M-$8M Egypt = $4M-$5M Turkey = $3M Rest = $5M-$10M Total Middle East = $44M-$51M Africa : South Africa = $4M Nigeria = $1M Total Africa = $5M Latin america : Mexico = $50M-$60M $65M-$75M #1 best OW all time Brazil = $25M-$30M $45M-$65M #4 best OW all time Argentina = $5M-$7M $15M-$20M #5 best OW all time Chile = $7M-$9M $10M-$15M Peru = $7M-$9M $10M-$15M Colombia = $6M-$8M $10M-$15M Ecuador = $5M $10M-$15M Central America = $10M-$15M Rest = $5M Total Latin America = $180M-$240M Asia : South Korea = $50M-$60M $60M-$80M Australia = $20M-$25M $45M-$55M #4 best OW all time India = $20M-$25M $35M-$40M Russia = $25M-$30M $35M-$40M #11 best OW all time Japan = $30M-$40M $30M-$60M Taiwan = $15M $15M-$20M Indonesia = $5M-$10M $15M-$20M Philippines = $10M-$15M $15M-$20M Thailand = $15M Hong Kong = $10M-$15M $15M Malaysia = $10M Singapore = $10M $5M-$10M New Zealand = $5M #6 best OW all time Total Asia = $240M-$295M $300M-$391M China = $0 Overseas = $810M-$1,04B Total = $1,245B - $1,675B $1,460B-$1790B If NWH is released in China, I think it will beat JW and will be #6 at the all time box office Edited December 19, 2021 by LPLC 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, LPLC said: News expectations after this huge OW : Domestic = $400M-$500M $650M-$750M #3 best OW all time (maybe #2 tomorrow) EMEA : United Kingdom = $60M-$70M $90M-$110M #5 best OW all time (maybe #4 tomorrow and #4 in lc) France = $30M-$35M $45M-$55M #17 best OW all time Germany = $25M-$30M $30M-$40M #49 best OW all time Italy = $20M-$25M $25M-$30M #7 best OW all time Spain = $15M-$20M $25M-$30M #13 best OW all time Netherlands = $10M Poland = $5M-$10M Sweden = $5M-$10M Denmark = $5M-$10M Ukraine = $6M-$7M #1 best OW all time Norway = $5M Austria = $4M-$5M Belgium = $4M-$5M Switzerland = $4M-$5M Czech Republic = $3M Finland = $3M Hungary = $2M-$3M Portugal = $2M-$3M Greece = $2M-$3M Romania = $2M Slovakia = $1M Rest = $3M Total EMEA = $240M-$290M $281M-$353M Middle East : Saudi Arabia = $15M #1 best OW all time UAE = $10M #4 best OW all time Israel = $7M-$8M #2 best OW all time ? Egypt = $4M-$5M #1 best OW all time ? Turkey = $3M Rest = $5M-$10M Total Middle East = $44M-$51M Africa : South Africa = $4M Nigeria = $1M Total Africa = $5M Latin america : Mexico = $50M-$60M $65M-$75M Brazil = $25M-$30M $45M-$65M Argentina = $5M-$7M $15M-$20M Chile = $7M-$9M $10M-$15M Peru = $7M-$9M $10M-$15M Colombia = $6M-$8M $10M-$15M Ecuador = $5M $10M-$15M Central America = $10M-$15M Rest = $5M Total Latin America = $180M-$240M Asia : South Korea = $50M-$60M $60M-$80M Australia = $20M-$25M $45M-$55M India = $20M-$25M $35M-$40M Russia = $25M-$30M $35M-$40M Japan = $30M-$40M $30M-$60M Taiwan = $15M $15M-$20M Indonesia = $5M-$10M $15M-$20M Philippines = $10M-$15M $15M-$20M Thailand = $15M Hong Kong = $10M-$15M $15M Malaysia = $10M Singapore = $10M $5M-$10M New Zealand = $5M Total Asia = $240M-$295M $300M-$391M China = $0 Overseas = $810M-$1,04B Total = $1,245B - $1,675B $1,460B-$1790B If NWH is released in China, I think it will beat JW and be #6 at the all time box office Or it could beat iw with your higher end plus china. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, LPLC said: Total = $1,245B - $1,675B $1,460B-$1790B If NWH is released in China, I think it will beat JW and be #6 at the all time box office Your upper-end number is $115M over JW. At least now you're getting it. If it release in China it's likely over IW, TFA and possibly even Titanic WW. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: Your upper-end number is $115M over JW. At least now you're getting it. If it release in China it's likely over IW, TFA and possibly even Titanic WW. Yes $1,79B is the MAXIMUM, my personal expectations are more something like $1,55B-$1,6B, NWH will need China to go towards $1.8B-$1.9B 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 On 12/17/2021 at 6:30 PM, LPLC said: Ok let's say max $900M OS and $700M DOM as you think it will still be almost $100M short to reach JW. 5 minutes ago, LPLC said: Yes $1,79B is the MAXIMUM, my personal expectations are more something like $1,55B-$1,6B, NWH will need China to go towards $1.8B-$1.9B Your "maximum" has gone up $190M in 2 days... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: Your "maximum" has gone up $190M in 2 days... . Edited December 20, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) On 12/18/2021 at 1:30 AM, LPLC said: Ok let's say max $900M OS and $700M DOM as you think it will still be almost $100M short to reach JW. But wait ... it's not what i thought but it's what YOU thought. reread the sentence. However It's normal dude two days ago we had no idea what a huge weekend NWH was going to do. Edited December 20, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, LPLC said: Yes it makes sense dude two days ago I had no idea what a huge weekend NWH was going to do. Yea it's just funny that we've been telling you for a month you're underestimating it and yet you still manage to do continue to do it. You'd think at this point you would have learned but, here we are yet again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, LPLC said: Yes it makes sense dude two days ago I had no idea what a huge weekend NWH was going to do. And two weeks from now it'll be "two weeks ago I had no idea what a huge legs NWH was going to do." That's why you'd shouldn't go so low on a movie while calling it max! Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, LPLC said: But wait ... it's not what i thought but it's what YOU thought. That's not what I thought, you just worded it that way in your post. I said AT LEAST $925M OS and $700M DOM. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: And two weeks from now it'll be "two weeks ago I had no idea what a huge legs NWH was going to do." That's why you'd shouldn't go so low on a movie while calling it max! Tell me or do you think I underestimated my new expectations and I will adapt, forums also serve that instead of blaming other people's thoughts is better that we try to correct them together, don't you think ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: That's not what I thought, you just worded it that way in your post. I said AT LEAST $925M OS and $700M DOM. Yes it's still $45M behind JW, I hope we will find the remaining $45M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 7:17 PM, LPLC said: Like I said few hours ago I expect $315M-$325M OS OW and maybe $260M-$270M DOM OW, Let's try $580M-$590M global OW Nice ! Right in the target. Fortunately, I have neither overestimated nor underestimated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 3:48 PM, GoblinXXR said: I would concur if not for all of these (possible) fucking lockdowns/restrictions. My gut says $800-850M OS-C-J should be good but I'm hesitant because I feel several countries may close down cinemas in the next 2 weeks. I just don't know which countries, when they'll start and for how long, so it's up in the air right now. $850M is your maximum or $925M Is your minimum ? I don't know now. It's a joke ofc @GoblinXXR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 hours ago, GoblinXXR said: With bad legs OS, no China, much smaller-than-expected Japan and the few other markets that haven't opened, lets say $780-800M OS. With bad legs domestically, lets say $620-650M. So pessimistic about $1.4-1.45B. Almost the same as my pessimistic scenario but here you are a bit too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, LPLC said: $850M is your maximum or $925M Is your minimum ? I don't know now. It's a joke ofc @GoblinXXR That's OS-C-J, so add in the $75M I estimated for Japan and what does that give you? In fairness to you, I've also adjusted up my numbers in the last few days but this is important why you don't say things like "that's impossible, it can't do that!". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 hours ago, GoblinXXR said: Looking to Final Numbers... UK + 50 Mexico + 40 SK + 30 Australia + 30 India + 25 Brazil + 45 France + 35 Russia + 25 Italy + 25 Germany + 25 Spain + 25 I think here you have underestimated : UK Mexico SK Australia India Brazil France Russia Germany Almost everything, don't be so pessimistic 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 In short, all this is for laughs @GoblinXXR and @Weird Alegion, it's just to show you that we have the right to change our minds, it doesn't matter and that it's normal to be wrong and sometimes to underestimate or sometimes overestimate it just need to talk about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infamous5445 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: That's OS-C-J, so add in the $75M I estimated for Japan and what does that give you? In fairness to you, I've also adjusted up my numbers in the last few days but this is important why you don't say things like "that's impossible, it can't do that!". 75M for Japan really? Didn't Endgame only make like 50M there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, infamous5445 said: 75M for Japan really? Didn't Endgame only make like 50M there $55M. Japan isn't a big market for American superheroes, but in Japan the highest grossing CBM is still the 1st Spider-Man. Given what we know about NWH, I think it's going to play very well there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
