Legion Again

Lowest post memorial weekend winner since Backdraft in 1991 with 9,118,395 (~24M adjusted to 2024 atp)

Think about it porthos. If a movie was going to be good, they would just get everything perfect on the first take 😤

The heck was going on here

35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain

Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just huge huge gap there already being factored in.

Not really? I mean, the “being good” part, yes — but for the “looking attractive to mass audiences” part the proof is kind of in the pudding

Movies succeed if they look attractive to mass audience. Being very good is certainly one way to help with that but they’re only loosely correlated

As usual with economic stats, good to be careful with interpreting 2020 or throw it out entirely. In this case, of the 2.2B gross for 2020, ~1.8B is from Jan/feb/March pre-shutdowns, so while I wouldn’t take that number super at face value it’s probably reasonably close to meaningful — if you really dig deep and made a bunch of sophisticated tweaks to further correct it I doubt it would change by more than a few %.

Notably, Here are those prices in 2023 dollars (adjusting Dec of year to Dec 2023 in all cases): 2023 —10.84 2022 — 10.88 2021 — 11.19 2020 — 10.81 2019 — 10.93 2018 — 11.12 2017 — 11.16 2016 — 10.99 2015 — 10.92 2014 — 10.70

Lots of people are out of school this Thursday, hurts IM relative to full schooltime same as summer does

Tbf that first sentiment was never more than people massively wishcasting with no grounding in reality 😛

Hmm, I think you’re drawing a good distinction here, but I want to expand on it a bit further. A mini studio that reliably pumps out 20M grossers on a 2M budget may be very satisfied with their ROI and content to make such movies forever — but it doesn’t contribute enough in raw $ for exhibition to pay for wages rents etc. Not a sustainable model in equilibrium. A megablockbuster flop that does 400M DOM but loses money from bloated costs and poor os performance is a massive boon for theaters while it’s out — but it’s not a sustainable model either because studios will not continue making such movies if they’re too consistent money losers. Only way for things to work out is with movies that have good ROI (so studios will continue making them) and high raw gross (so venues can continue above water on various fixed costs). That was achievable easily enough from 1950-2020, but for now… we’ll see

I mean the only problem with this explanation is that both sentences are unambiguously factually mistaken

IO sales seem… fine. Not clearly indicating doom — also not clearly forestalling doom. Just going to have to wait til the end to find out exactly to what degree it breaks like a relatively original animation vs a sequel animation in a franchise with a bunch of fans. I can see why people who might have hoped for a more obviously strong start would be nervous getting “not that, but if you wait and see could still work out fine” instead.

They can afford it as much as they ever could because it costs the same it always has We should not attribute a change in one variable (theater admissions) to an unchanged 2nd variable (real ticket prices)