LPLC Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 (edited) I think we'll have to start talking about Spider Man : No Way Home soon. The biggest film of the year 2021 without a doubt. It's coming out in a little over a month and the last movie that hyped me up so much was Avengers: Endgame, hopefully a box office hit like it was for AEG. Just to know through the different countries you come from : - how is the hype ? - What are you expecting for NWH in your country ? Personally, in France the hype is huge, I would say that since AEG and TLK which had 10 million admissions here, there has never been so much hype for a film. FFH had made $26M and 3.2M admissions. For NWH, I hope for something around 4.5M admissions and $35M-$40M, ie an evolution of around 40% ! THAT WOULD BE HUGE ! Edited November 4, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raulbalarezo Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 $1.6 Billion WW 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Remember when we thought it would take a long time before we saw such massive presales as Endgame? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1.5 billion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Carlangonz said: Remember when we thought it would take a long time before we saw such massive presales as Endgame? I don't expect pre-sales to be anywhere close to Endgame here in India or US or most markets. Mostly under Infinity War as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said: I don't expect pre-sales to be anywhere close to Endgame here in India or US or most markets. Mostly under Infinity War as well. I think it has a shot at beating IW presales, which weren't anywhere close to EG anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Menor said: I think it has a shot at beating IW presales, which weren't anywhere close to EG anyway. in USA migh be but not in India for sure and many INT markets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolK Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Dont see much hype for this here...its on the same level as the last 2 films.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 (edited) Here are my personal expectations for NWH : Domestic = $400M-$500M EMEA : United Kingdom = $60M-$70M France = $30M-$35M Germany = $25M-$30M (uncertainty due to Covid) Italy = $20M-$25M Spain = $15M-$20M Netherlands = $10M UAE = $10M Poland = $5M-$10M Sweden = $5M-$10M Danemark = $5M Norway = $5M Rest = $50M-$60M Total EMEA = $240M-$290M Latin america : Mexico = $50M-$60M Brazil = $25M-$30M Chile = $7M-$9M Peru = $7M-$9M Colombia = $6M-$8M Argentina = $5M-$7M Ecuador = $5M Rest = $10M-$12M Total Latin America = $115M-$140M Asia : South Korea = $60M-$70M Japan = $30M-$40M Russia = $25M-$30M Australia = $20M-$25M (uncertainty due to Covid) India = $20M-$25M Taiwan = $15M Thailand = $15M Hong Kong = $10M-$15M Philippines = $10M-$15M Malaysia = $10M Singapore = $10M Indonesia = $5M-$10M (uncertainty due to Covid) Rest = $10M-$15M Total Asia = $240M-$295M China = $250M-$450M (uncertainty) Total = $1,245B - $1,675B If you ever think I'm drastically wrong somewhere, let me know. In any case, I sincerely believe that NWH has a chance of falling into the very closed category of the 10 biggest movies of all time at the box office. Edited November 12, 2021 by LPLC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 @LPLC I will post my expectations in some time in this thread instead of replying you in all other threads. I will edit this post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: @LPLC I will post my expectations in some time in this thread instead of replying you in all other threads. I will edit this post. Ok thank you very much, hope this has helped you a bit, the opinion of people across different countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) Assuming COVID situation don't get worse. Asia China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH) India - $20M South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits) Japan - $40M Taiwan - $18M Hong Kong - $15M South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) Middle East - $32-38M (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8) Oceania Australia - $45M New Zealand - $6M Europe UK - $75M France - $40-45M Germany - $35-40M Russia/CIS - May be $20M. Italy - $20M Spain - $25M Netherlands - $10M Nordic - $20M Rest - $50M LATAM Mexico - $55M Brazil - $40M Rest - $60M Total - $1.08-1.18B DOM - $550-600M WW - $1.73-1.78B Edited December 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 I changed my expectations in different countries depending on what was said in the different threads or I asked questions : - What we can notice is that a similar result between Europe and Asia (not counting China) is likely, around $250M-$300M each. - China is the most uncertain market, on its own it can take or add $200M more or less to the total of NWH ($250M-$450M). - DOM market is where I am most sure, it should exceed FFH and $400M there, but I do not see it exceed $500M ($450M is the goal). - Regarding Latin America, the total is going to be hugely dependent on Mexico, which could contribute almost half of all of the NWH box office there (hopefully $100M-$150M in total). If you add all that up, NWH could reach between $1,25Bn (18th place at the global box office) and $1,7Bn (6th place at the global box office). The objective in my opinion would be to achieve a result between these two, say something above $1450M and below $1500M at the 10th place of the world box office between Frozen 2 and F7. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Assuming COVID situation don't get worse. Asia China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH) India - $20M South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits) Japan - $40M Taiwan - $18M Hong Kong - $15M South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) Middle East - $32-38M (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8) Oceania Australia - $45M New Zealand - $6M Europe UK - $75M France - $40-45M Germany - $35-40M Russia/CIS - May be $20M. Italy - $20M Spain - $25M Netherlands - $10M Nordic - $20M Rest - $50M LATAM Mexico - $55M Brazil - $32M Rest - $60M Total - $1.08-1.18B DOM - $550-600M WW - $1.73-1.78B $1.73Bn-$1.78Bn would be amazing, and you are more of an expert than I am so I hope you are right. However, I think you overestimate NWH in several countries, including : - Indonesia (it was said that because of COVID it would be difficult to exceed $10M there) - Australia (it was said anything over $15M-$20M would be successful due to COVID and big competition) - UK - France - Germany - And especially in US/CAN ($550M-$600M is really huge and it would be a big increase compared to FFH, I agree that there will be an increase but not as much) * And $1,08Bn + $550M DOM = $1,63Bn not $1,73Bn. Edited November 11, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnfalkon Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) 25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Assuming COVID situation don't get worse. Asia China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH) India - $20M South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits) Japan - $40M Taiwan - $18M Hong Kong - $15M South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) Middle East - $32-38M (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8) Oceania Australia - $45M New Zealand - $6M Europe UK - $75M France - $40-45M Germany - $35-40M Russia/CIS - May be $20M. Italy - $20M Spain - $25M Netherlands - $10M Nordic - $20M Rest - $50M LATAM Mexico - $55M Brazil - $32M Rest - $60M Total - $1.08-1.18B DOM - $550-600M WW - $1.73-1.78B I think $ 24-29 million or 1.7-2.05 bil rub, taking into account that if the situation with the coronavirus does not get worse and competition from the Matrix and other major New Year releases. Edited November 11, 2021 by johnfalkon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, johnfalkon said: I think $ 24-29 million or 1.7-2.05 bil rub, taking into account that if the situation with the coronavirus does not get worse and competition from the Matrix and other major New Year releases. I would expect it to be close to Venom 2 but CoVID is a big variable. Actually most European markets may be at risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Tickets for most of Latin America go on sale on 29th on par with US. Hopefully Europe and SE Asia follow suit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 (edited) NWH is released in theaters all over the world the same weekend except in a few countries (Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and possibly China). Personally I think without China $400M-$450M is achievable (Between F7 = $397M and Captain Marvel = $457M). Some articles I have seen talk about $500M WW opening : https://www.murphysmultiverse.com/spider-man-no-way-home-early-forecast-eyeing-500m-worldwide-opening/ And you, what are you waiting for ? Edited November 20, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 6 hours ago, LPLC said: NWH is released in theaters all over the world the same weekend except in a few countries (Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and possibly China). Personally I think without China $400M-$450M is achievable (Between F7 = $397M and Captain Marvel = $457M). Some articles I have seen talk about $500M WW opening : https://www.murphysmultiverse.com/spider-man-no-way-home-early-forecast-eyeing-500m-worldwide-opening/ And you, what are you waiting for ? I do not dare to make a prediction with covid rising. Who knows what can be the restrictions, mainly in Europe, within a month. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 (edited) As you want, what do you think guys about this box office pro predictions for NWH ? https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/ Edited November 20, 2021 by LPLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
