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Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread

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I think we'll have to start talking about Spider Man : No Way Home soon. The biggest film of the year 2021 without a doubt. It's coming out in a little over a month and the last movie that hyped me up so much was Avengers: Endgame, hopefully a box office hit like it was for AEG.

 

 

Just to know through the different countries you come from :

 

- how is the hype ?

 

- What are you expecting for NWH in your country ?

 

 

Personally, in France the hype is huge, I would say that since AEG and TLK which had 10 million admissions here, there has never been so much hype for a film. FFH had made $26M and 3.2M admissions. For NWH, I hope for something around 4.5M admissions and $35M-$40M, ie an evolution of around 40% ! THAT WOULD BE HUGE !

Edited by LPLC
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2 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

Remember when we thought it would take a long time before we saw such massive presales as Endgame?

I don't expect pre-sales to be anywhere close to Endgame here in India or US or most markets. Mostly under Infinity War as well.

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't expect pre-sales to be anywhere close to Endgame here in India or US or most markets. Mostly under Infinity War as well.

I think it has a shot at beating IW presales, which weren't anywhere close to EG anyway. 

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Here are my personal expectations for NWH :

 

 

Domestic = $400M-$500M

 

 

EMEA :

 

United Kingdom = $60M-$70M

France = $30M-$35M

Germany = $25M-$30M (uncertainty due to Covid)

Italy = $20M-$25M

Spain = $15M-$20M

Netherlands = $10M

UAE = $10M

Poland = $5M-$10M

Sweden = $5M-$10M

Danemark = $5M

Norway = $5M

Rest = $50M-$60M

 

Total EMEA = $240M-$290M

 

 

Latin america :

 

Mexico = $50M-$60M

Brazil = $25M-$30M

Chile = $7M-$9M

Peru = $7M-$9M

Colombia = $6M-$8M

Argentina = $5M-$7M

Ecuador = $5M

Rest = $10M-$12M

 

Total Latin America = $115M-$140M

 

 

Asia :

 

South Korea = $60M-$70M

Japan = $30M-$40M

Russia = $25M-$30M

Australia = $20M-$25M (uncertainty due to Covid)

India = $20M-$25M

Taiwan = $15M

Thailand = $15M

Hong Kong = $10M-$15M

Philippines = $10M-$15M

Malaysia = $10M

Singapore = $10M

Indonesia = $5M-$10M (uncertainty due to Covid)

Rest = $10M-$15M

 

Total Asia = $240M-$295M

 

 

China = $250M-$450M (uncertainty)

 

 

Total = $1,245B - $1,675B

 

 

 

If you ever think I'm drastically wrong somewhere, let me know. In any case, I sincerely believe that NWH has a chance of falling into the very closed category of the 10 biggest movies of all time at the box office.

 

 

Edited by LPLC
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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@LPLC I will post my expectations in some time in this thread instead of replying you in all other threads. I will edit this post.

Ok thank you very much, hope this has helped you a bit, the opinion of people across different countries.

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Assuming COVID situation don't get worse.

 

Asia

China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH)
India - $20M
South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits)
Japan - $40M
Taiwan - $18M
Hong Kong - $15M
South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) 
Middle East - $32-38M  (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8)

 

Oceania
Australia - $45M
New Zealand - $6M

 

Europe 
UK - $75M
France - $40-45M
Germany - $35-40M

Russia/CIS - May be $20M.
Italy - $20M
Spain - $25M
Netherlands - $10M
Nordic - $20M
Rest - $50M

 

LATAM
Mexico - $55M
Brazil - $40M
Rest - $60M

 

Total $1.08-1.18B

DOM - $550-600M

 

WW - $1.73-1.78B

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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I changed my expectations in different countries depending on what was said in the different threads or I asked questions : 

 

- What we can notice is that a similar result between Europe and Asia (not counting China) is likely, around $250M-$300M each.

 

- China is the most uncertain market, on its own it can take or add $200M more or less to the total of NWH ($250M-$450M).

 

- DOM market is where I am most sure, it should exceed FFH and $400M there, but I do not see it exceed $500M ($450M is the goal).

 

- Regarding Latin America, the total is going to be hugely dependent on Mexico, which could contribute almost half of all of the NWH box office there (hopefully $100M-$150M in total).

 

If you add all that up, NWH could reach between $1,25Bn (18th place at the global box office) and $1,7Bn (6th place at the global box office).

 

The objective in my opinion would be to achieve a result between these two, say something above $1450M and below $1500M at the 10th place of the world box office between Frozen 2 and F7.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming COVID situation don't get worse.

 

Asia

China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH)
India - $20M
South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits)
Japan - $40M
Taiwan - $18M
Hong Kong - $15M
South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) 
Middle East - $32-38M  (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8)

 

Oceania
Australia - $45M
New Zealand - $6M

 

Europe 
UK - $75M
France - $40-45M
Germany - $35-40M

Russia/CIS - May be $20M.
Italy - $20M
Spain - $25M
Netherlands - $10M
Nordic - $20M
Rest - $50M

 

LATAM
Mexico - $55M
Brazil - $32M
Rest - $60M

 

Total $1.08-1.18B

DOM - $550-600M

 

WW - $1.73-1.78B

 

$1.73Bn-$1.78Bn would be amazing, and you are more of an expert than I am so I hope you are right. However, I think you overestimate NWH in several countries, including :

 

- Indonesia (it was said that because of COVID it would be difficult to exceed $10M there)

 

- Australia (it was said anything over $15M-$20M would be successful due to COVID and big competition)

 

- UK

 

- France

 

- Germany

 

- And especially in US/CAN ($550M-$600M is really huge and it would be a big increase compared to FFH, I agree that there will be an increase but not as much)

 

* And $1,08Bn + $550M DOM = $1,63Bn not $1,73Bn.

Edited by LPLC
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25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming COVID situation don't get worse.

 

Asia

China - $340-400M (55-60M admits, +25-50% FFH)
India - $20M
South Korea - $60-70M (7-8M admits)
Japan - $40M
Taiwan - $18M
Hong Kong - $15M
South East Asia - $47-70M (Indo 15-20, Mal 7-10, Singapore 10, Thailand 10, Others 5-20) 
Middle East - $32-38M  (UAE-GCC 15, KSA 10-15, Rest 7-8)

 

Oceania
Australia - $45M
New Zealand - $6M

 

Europe 
UK - $75M
France - $40-45M
Germany - $35-40M

Russia/CIS - May be $20M.
Italy - $20M
Spain - $25M
Netherlands - $10M
Nordic - $20M
Rest - $50M

 

LATAM
Mexico - $55M
Brazil - $32M
Rest - $60M

 

Total $1.08-1.18B

DOM - $550-600M

 

WW - $1.73-1.78B

 

I think $ 24-29 million or 1.7-2.05 bil rub, taking into account that if the situation with the coronavirus does not get worse and competition from the Matrix and other major New Year releases.

Edited by johnfalkon
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34 minutes ago, johnfalkon said:

 

I think $ 24-29 million or 1.7-2.05 bil rub, taking into account that if the situation with the coronavirus does not get worse and competition from the Matrix and other major New Year releases.

I would expect it to be close to Venom 2 but CoVID is a big variable. Actually most European markets may be at risk.

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NWH is released in theaters all over the world the same weekend except in a few countries (Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and possibly China).

 

Personally I think without China $400M-$450M is achievable (Between F7 = $397M and Captain Marvel = $457M). Some articles I have seen talk about $500M WW opening : https://www.murphysmultiverse.com/spider-man-no-way-home-early-forecast-eyeing-500m-worldwide-opening/

 

And you, what are you waiting for ? 

Edited by LPLC
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6 hours ago, LPLC said:

NWH is released in theaters all over the world the same weekend except in a few countries (Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and possibly China).

 

Personally I think without China $400M-$450M is achievable (Between F7 = $397M and Captain Marvel = $457M). Some articles I have seen talk about $500M WW opening : https://www.murphysmultiverse.com/spider-man-no-way-home-early-forecast-eyeing-500m-worldwide-opening/

 

And you, what are you waiting for ? 

I do not dare to make a prediction with covid rising. Who knows what can be the restrictions, mainly in Europe, within a month.

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