Fullbuster Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: final estimate has Ice Age 5 at 525k only ... that's baaad. otoh, Me Before You stays flat from last week - that's goood. What a drop for IA5 o_o And with the Euro that's worth clearly less in 2012 the fall over IA4 in USD will be shocking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 4, 2016 Author Share Posted July 4, 2016 yep, might be a 60% drop if not harder ... well let's see if it can develop any legs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 (edited) Now it seems that it had 440k 5,6M won't happen for OW... MbY 250k without previews that means a 3% increase! (cume 780k, not bad) CI 95k -23% C2 70k -29% AiW 25k -36% Edited July 4, 2016 by Aristis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Well, as for Ice Age I would say 2M are still possible. 3M would need to have a multipler of 7 already, so... Could be down more than 70% in admissions in the end! (If it reaches 2M) But most of the Ice Age movies had great multiplers - still, all is possible. But it will certainly end as the least successfull IA movie - and that by far 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 That's horrible for IA5...I knew that some people could have lost interest but I expected a much smaller fall....$1B WW is dead I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: That's horrible for IA5...I knew that some people could have lost interest but I expected a much smaller fall....$1B WW is dead I guess. I didn't even think of $1B for this. There is too much against it. It would need to make $850M to $900M OS (probably rather the latter one) to get to $1B. With falling exchange rates that is impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Yes, that's sad for IA5. But reservations were so low (even for a(n also) family film) that I'm not really sursprised. Well, football will dominate this week too but then it has time till July the 28th when PETS starts here. I don't think that BFG will be that much of a competition. By the way, insidekino predicts PETS to have 5M admissions and be #1 of the month. Ok, they also predicted 4.7M moviegoers for IA5, so take it with a grain of salt. But mostly these predictions are not bad and I think this time they could be right. PETS is something new and fresh and looks – I have to admit that – really pretty sweet. And finally some smaller numbers of the past weekend/week: #5 Alice2: 25k/750k #6 WC: 22.5k (-41.5%)/1.180k #7 AB: Angry Birds: 22.5k/1.375k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Yeah, the following will be the last weekend with football having influence on BO. But that'll be much! On Thursday and - I suspect - on Sunday The drops (or increases ) the week after will be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 2 hours ago, el sid said: PETS is something new and fresh It didn't look new and fresh to me and a lot of other people when I got the trailer in theatre a few month back! I don't even think it can reach 3mil admissions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 5, 2016 Author Share Posted July 5, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Ice Age 5 443.090 812 546 443.090 3.738.260 - 1 2 Me Before You 249.346 613 407 781.099 6.269.845 +3 2 3 Central Intelligence 94.507 530 178 537.718 4.347.030 -23 3 4 Conjuring 2 73.097 419 174 456.360 4.103.234 -26 3 5 Alice 2 26.196 446 59 750.287 7.077.347 -34 6 6 Warcraft 23.372 327 71 1.181.955 13.408.949 -39 6 7 Angry Birds 21.995 537 41 1.377.063 10.282.496 -46 8 8 Bastille Day 14.116 331 43 81.535 579.798 -50 2 9 Vor der Morgenröte 9.388 144 65 136.230 136.230 -5 5 10 Money Monster 9.247 221 42 415.345 3.432.280 -43 6 11 X-Men - Apocalypse 7.419 156 48 755.617 8.089.324 -41 7 12 Lou Andreas-Salomé 7.130 42 170 8.223 60.227 - 1 13 Zootopia 6.460 230 28 3.732.980 30.299.569 -47 18 14 The Nice Guys 5.363 173 31 271.231 2.114.126 -55 5 15 Atrapa la bandera 5.285 323 16 95.854 666.154 -66 4 16 Nous trois ou rien 4.678 39 120 8.111 56.710 - 1 17 Rico, Oskar und der Diebstahlstein 4.510 257 18 330.867 1.994.037 -44 10 18 High-Rise 4.467 60 74 20.764 127.303 - 1 19 The Jungle Book 4.372 209 21 1.801.143 17.221.505 -54 12 20 Neighbors 2 3.853 119 32 811.796 6.565.296 -43 9 So, this should have been the weekend to break the Euro2016 depression at the BO, instead it's another bummer … the only bright spot on the chart is Me Before You which managed to increase from last week's good start. Ice Age 5 started way below expectations; the only thing it succeeded in was hurting other family stuff as witnessed by the sharp drops even for longrunners like Zootopia. Next weekend: With the Euro2016 finals, of course nobody dares open anything big … the most interesting release is Smaragdgrün, the third entry in the YA franchise - since nr.2 expanded a lot from nr.1, maybe there's a further success possible, 200k admissions for the weekend would be good. As poor as IA5 opened, at least it should stay nr.1 … 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Well, half of the year is over and so, maybe, it's time to have a look on the yearly chart. No. Admissions € Widest Release Movie 1 3.732.980 30.299.569 729 Zootopia 2 2.796.569 26.453.551 748 The Revenant 3 2.692.431 22.831.821 668 Deadpool 4 1.970.205 12.352.741 775 Bibi & Tina 3 (German) 5 1.801.143 17.221.505 696 The Jungle Book 6 1.715.775 19.095.762 651 Civil War 7 1.657.647 13.561.928 713 Der geilste Tag (German) 8 1.526.849 16.803.833 693 Batman V Superman 9 1.377.063 10.282.496 738 Angry Birds 10 1.331.885 10.902.478 495 Dirty Grandpa Now, with Ice Age doing worse than predicted, Zootopia will hold its 1st position a bit longer. Maybe Pets has a shot. Suicide Squad could surprise in August but 3.8M would be very hard. The next is Finding Dory (Septembre 29th) which should be sure to make more that Zoo, if not that would be really disappointing... (The other two Million Movies - missing in this list - are The Hateful 8 and Warcraft. Ice Age should join that list soon and should also be the fourth movie to make it to 2M admissions. Now to the Top Opening Weekends: No. Admissions Cinemas Average Movie 1 713.887 523 1.365 Deadpool 2 690.464 636 1.086 Zoomania 3 554.890 657 845 BvS 4 545.288 615 887 CW 5 460.078 659 698 TJB 6 443.090 812 546 Ice Age 5 7 440.830 603 731 Warcraft 8 380.349 402 946 The Revenant 9 374.187 660 567 Bibi & Tina 3 10 342.733 650 527 Der geilste Tag As you can see Theatres had hopes in Ice Age, it had 812 cinemas in its OW, the widest release yet. And at last, after last years Universal Domination, a short look on the Studios: No. Admissions Movies % Studio 1 9.185.665 9 21,4% 20th Century Fox 2 8.517.528 5 19,8% Walt Disney 3 6.288.834 8 14,6% Warner Bros. 4 5.225.932 12 12,2% Universal 5 2.583.993 5 6,0% Sony 43.001.891 69 100,0% Cume Fox is slightly in Front but with Dory and SW coming Disney could overtake it. Independence Day could maybe expand the gap next week though. According to that data the yearly total (up to 3rd July) is 43M. I don't know if all movies are included but it won'T be much more. If that's true that's a big drop though (2015: 66.8M, 2014: 56.2M). So that's it. I hope there is some interest There should be accurate Numbers on the first half of the year soon (Don't know when they are released) All numbers from InsideKino. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 So glad to see Zootopia on top, really deserved! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 In Austria, numbers are similar to Germany ... 2016 is down from 2015; after a good 1st quarter, admissions took a dive. May was already one of the poorest in recent history (2008 was worse) and June definitely was the worst June in history (admission-wise, of course). 2nd quarter as a whole had just a bit over 2mil admissions in Austria; only 2008 was worse with about 1,9mil admissions. Well, the Euro2016 will be over this weekend and there's a lot of blockbustery stuff on the horizon (ID2, Dory, Pets, BFG, ST3, Ghostbusters ...) plus IA5 will make most of its admissions in quarter 3 so I still have some hopes for 2016. (The 1st quarter WAS good) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 The Friday trend doesn't tell much. Nearly 30M saw the game yesterday - but it'll end at last this weekend. Two films seem to be certain to reach more than 100k (Ice Age and Smaragdgrün) and Me before You could do it. In fact this weekend could become the worst in years... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 9, 2016 Author Share Posted July 9, 2016 Now we DO have estimates on insidekino, it's looking like: #1: IA5 - 225k (-50%, ooooouch, that's horrible) #2: MeBeforeYou - 150k (-40% but last weekend saw an increase) #3: Smaragdgrün - 130k (behind expectations) ... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Well, it's safe to call IA5's performance in Germany disastrous now, can it even reach 2mio admissions with Pets on the horizon later this month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Giesi said: Well, it's safe to call IA5's performance in Germany disastrous now, can it even reach 2mio admissions with Pets on the horizon later this month? With this weekend result, I fear/think not. Ok, football and the weather hurted it but that's not enough as an explanation. It should have ca. 800k total admissions after this weekend and even if it stays flat next weekend, the time till PETS (aka SLOP to annoy Mojoguy ) starts is too short to reach 2M. And I'm not sure anymore if it would have the potential to reach 2M even without the competition of PETS. Edited July 9, 2016 by el sid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 So IA4 grossed $64m and IA5 won't even reach $20m? Clearly an EPIC FAIL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 (edited) 7.299.318 8.747.671 +20% 8.709.881 - 6.699.599 -23% 1.800.000? -73% Edited July 10, 2016 by Aristis 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 14 hours ago, Aristis said: 7.299.318 8.747.671 +20% 8.709.881 - 1.800.000? -80% You forgot IA4 with 6.699.599. Still a huge decrease. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...