miketheavenger Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Giesi said: So what are everybody's predictions for the top hits of 2017? Will SW8 be without a doubt the #1 film? Is BatB the first Disney life-action remake to really break out? Can Pirates 5 stop the downward spiral of oblivion? I think SW8 should rather easily win the year. It'll probably drop between 20-25% in admissions I would say. Not feeling BatB to be that big of a monster. It might beat TJB, but at the moment I can't see 3m+. Pirates 5 should be huge here, but it'll still be lucky to reach the fourth one's numbers. Don't count out Despicable Me 3 though. Minions had nearly 7m admissions and while DM3 will probably drop from that, it should still be massive. Edited January 18, 2017 by miketheavenger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 My bet would be on SW8, too, but in Germany and Austria, you really never have a safe bet which release becomes "the" must-see-movie of the year (2016 we had none at all). What's a given is that this year's top blockbusters will get a lot more admissions than 2016's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Thursday estimates: New Releases: xXx3: 33k (starts in 541 theaters; mediocre reviews around 4-7/10; the first one had 711.673 admissions on its release weekend and started in 937(!) theaters, the second one with Ice Cube only 142.039 in over 500 theaters) – if this number holds it will stay above the second but far under the first XXX-movie Ritter Rost 2 – Das Schrottkomplott: ?k (446, good reviews) Collateral Beauty: 5k (245, very mixed reviews between 2 and 7/10) Manchester by the Sea: 2k (91, some mediocre but mostly very good reviews) Personal Shopper: ?k (?, good or very good reviews) Holdovers: Passengers: 13k (22.5k) The Great Wall: 9.5k (21.5k) La La Land: 14k (19k) Rogue One: 10.5k (15k) Plötzlich Papa: 9.5k (14k) Why Him: 5k (14k) A Streetcat Named Bob: 3k (5.5k) So an ok start into the weekend for the holdovers but (not so surprising) a pretty disappointing Thursday for the new releases. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm a little surprised La La Land is below last thursday ... with the expansion it should stay at least flat for the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 First estimates for the weekend from insidekino.de: #1: xXx - 240k admissions (meh) #2: LLL - 160k (+15%, good) #3: Passengers - 140k (-40%) #4: Dtc - 125k (-15%, won't become a sleeper hit it seems) #5: GreatWall - 100k (-40%) Collateral Beauty seems to open with 70k. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) The Thursday actuals: xXx3: 30k La La Land 22k - so much better than estimated which surprises me because all other reports said the same but the expansion of course helps Passengers: 15k The Great Wall: 12k Plötzlich Papa: 12k CB: 8k Manchester: 4.5k So holdovers and both Beauty and Manchester improved a little bit from estimates. Manchester should reach at least what was projected: 35k OW. Edited January 20, 2017 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 estimates went up a bit: #1: xXx - 250k admissions (still meh) #2: LLL - 165k (+20%, good) #3: Passengers - 140k (-40%) #4: Dtc - 125k (-15%) #5/6: GreatWall / Moana with 100k (-40% / -30%) #7: Why Him - 95k (-30%) #8/9: R1 / Sing with 70k (-50% / -25%) #10: CB - 65k (incl. previews) The weekend wouldn't be half bad if the openers were just a bit better 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 final estimates went down for the top2, Passengers and Dtc a bit up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I thought a bit about the year and made a list about the (maybe) biggest movies 2017: Probable 2M+: (The 3rd column is my forecast, in the 5th there are comparable movies) 1 SW VIII 7 9M (SW VII) 2 Despicable Me 3 5,5 3,7M (DM2), 6,9M (Minions) 3 Pirates 5 4 4,4M (Pirates 4) 4 Bullyparade 4 5 The Beauty and the Beast 3,5 5,2M (Beauty and the Beast 1991) 6 FsoG 2 3,5 4,4M (FsoG1) 7 F&F 8 3 4,2M (F&F7) 8 Lego Batman 3 1,3M (Lego Movie) 9 Bibi & Tina 4 2,5 2M (B&T3) 10 Guardians of the Galaxy 2,5 1,8M (GotG1) 11 Transformers 5 2,2 2,5M (TF4) 12 Smurfs 3 2 2,7M/2,5M (Smurfs 1&2) 13 Justice League 2 1,5M (BvS) I read somewhere that Fack ju Göhte 3 could start this year. If that happens it would at least number 2 (6M to 7M admissions) or maybe even 1. Bullyparade is a tough one... With Der Schuh des Manitu and (T)Raumschiff Surprise (11,7M/9,2M) Bully had huge movies in the past but his recent movies failed... The Beauty and the Beast is hard too. Recent WDAS-Movies didn't do huge numbers (Jungle Book 1,9M, Cinderella 1,1M, Maleficant 1,5M) so I don't really know about this... Possible 2M+: Baywatch Wonder Woman 1,6M (Suicide Squad) Not that probable... World War Z 2 1,4M (WWZ 1) Not that probable... Spider Man 1,5M/1,1M (Amazing Spiderman 1&2), 3,2M (Spider Man 3) Planet of the Apes 1,1M/1,3M (Apes 1&2) Not that probable... Cars 3 2,2M/1,8M (Cars 1&2) Coco As for Baywatch, stupid Comedy often does good here, the first Bad Neighbours had 1,7M admissions. It could really surprise. The first Spiderman is the biggest Comic-Movie with 5,2M. But I don't think this will do that good, maybe a little bit better than Amazing Spiderman. Source: Numbers according to InsideKino. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Good list ! I doubt Lego Batman will do that much better than The Lego Movie ... but we can hope! And I fear a steeper decline for Pirates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Good list ! I doubt Lego Batman will do that much better than The Lego Movie ... but we can hope! And I fear a steeper decline for Pirates. Some is maybe more wish than forecast 2M would probably already be a success for Lego Batman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) Weekend estimates (some slight differences between main site and boards): 1. xXx: 235k (220k without previews) 2. Passengers 150k 3. La La Land 150k 4. Plötzlich Papa 130k/ 132.5k 5. Vaiana 115k 6. The Great Wall 105k 7. Why Him? 90k / 92.5k 8. Sing 72.5k 9. Rogue One 70k 10. Collateral Beauty 60k Rogue One has topped 3.8m and passed Finding Dory for 3rd place of 2016. Should get to number one by next weekend. Though with a whole bunch of new movie it might not reach 4m. Vier gegen die Bank made it past 1m, adding another movie above the 1m mark for 2016. Edited January 23, 2017 by George Parr 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 xXx 3 219.409 541 406 236.662 2.676.948 - 1 2 Passengers 151.068 634 238 952.349 9.780.406 -33 3 3 La La Land 150.724 243 620 373.683 3.292.492 +9 2 4 Demain tout commence 131.942 462 286 562.240 4.676.517 -12 3 5 Moana 115.294 684 169 1.594.711 12.457.854 -21 5 6 The Great Wall 104.709 495 212 319.576 3.560.355 -39 2 7 Why Him? 91.447 378 242 286.784 2.312.708 -34 2 8 Sing 72.397 662 109 2.179.053 17.336.432 -25 7 9 Rogue One 70.822 426 166 3.806.654 42.793.366 -48 6 10 Collateral Beauty 59.069 245 241 66.734 578.854 - 1 11 Ballerina 47.498 393 121 114.438 802.547 -10 2 12 A Streetcat Named Bob 44.968 251 179 125.559 999.632 -7 2 13 Vier gegen die Bank 44.314 490 90 1.053.449 8.553.094 -49 5 14 Feuerwehrmann Sam - Außerirdische 43.148 467 92 164.381 1.033.027 -11 3 15 Willkommen bei den Hartmanns 37.625 423 89 3.433.282 27.665.452 -33 12 16 Manchester by the Sea 32.848 91 361 38.181 323.568 - 1 17 Assassin's Creed 27.866 419 67 926.861 9.776.351 -62 4 18 Ritter Rost 2 27.017 446 61 32.473 218.089 - 1 19 Fantastic Beasts 18.971 207 92 3.409.194 33.839.819 -45 10 20 Die Blumen von Gestern 18.809 88 214 61.368 485.785 -28 2 A rather mediocre weekend, pulled down by bad openers. Holdovers were not that bad - LaLaLand increased (a bit less than I hoped) and some other releases had very good holds. Next weekend: Overall admissions should go up quite a bit since there's a lot of new releases for many different demos: Split (might win the weekend, MNS has still a good name), Resident Evil 6 (might win the weekend, no blockbuster but a determined fanbase), Monster Trucks (really don't know what I would predict here), domestic girl/horse movie Wendy (looking at the Ostwind movies, I can see that opening to >100k but frankly I don't know anything about the material), domestic romcom Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben which might also open to >100k admissions, domestic spy comedy Botschafter des Friedens (will probably open lower but might catch on later), plus Oscar contenders Jackie and Hacksaw Ridge - espacially Jackie should achieve a really good PTA in ist few theaters and might expand later on. With that many new releases, I fear holdovers are in for mostly steep drops. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 Split seems to lead the weekend by a margin, RE6 not that close (and will probably decline the longer the weekend lasts, typical frontloader) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 (edited) The Thursday estimates (source insidekino.de/forum): New Releases (again way too crowded, in fact so crowded that some cinema chains deferred the release dates e.g. for Hacksaw Ridge): Wendy: ?k (starts in 531 theaters, mediocre reviews) Resi Evil 6: 22.5k (450, mixed reviews) Split: 43k (400, good reviews) – a very good start, will win the weekend easily Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 10.5k (332, very ok reviews) Monster Trucks: ?k (280, pretty bad reviews, at some theaters it gets only shows in the daytime) - was only mentioned on time and had around the half of HR and Kundschafter des Friedens Kundschafter des Friedens: 2.5k (155, good reviews) Hacksaw Ridge: 2.5k (I'm sorry that I can't bring better news but it starts in only 110 theaters, so even worse than I feared. Sad. HR overall gets more good reviews than bad ones but everything is represented from 1/10 to 9/10, WOM so far is good) Jackie: ?k (only ca. 50, very good reviews) Holdovers: xXx3: 11.5k (last Thursday 30k) – not a good hold La La Land: 15k (22k) – maybe again underestimated Passengers: 8.5k (15k) The Great Wall: 7.5k (12k) Plötzlich Papa: 7.5k (12k) Collateral Beauty: 4k (8k) – was also underestimated last week Manchester by the Sea: 3k (4.5k) Why Him: 3k (?k) Edited January 26, 2017 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 Wendy might surprise, being aimed at young girls it is more or less critic-proof ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Fack Ju Göhte 3 was just confirmed for 26th of October, the same date like Thor 3. This year is going to be massive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 Sure a great lineup of possible blockbusters, I'd be very disappointed if admissions didn't go up by at least 5%, better 10%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: Sure a great lineup of possible blockbusters, I'd be very disappointed if admissions didn't go up by at least 5%, better 10%! Do you think we can top 2015? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 That news definately makes the battle for no.1 (in terms of admissions) quite a bit more interesting. At this point I'd think that FjG3 will take that spot. Provided it doesn't see a significant drop as well. The second one rose a bit from the first. I'm not sure if that can be repeated, but even if it would drop to the 6-7m range, that should be roughly were Star Wars is heading as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...