zackzack Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 On 18/02/2017 at 0:20 PM, zackzack said: Can JW2 hit more than $5M? On 18/02/2017 at 2:55 PM, IndustriousAngel said: without 3D? would be very hard So, would yo like to revise your prediction re: JW2? It's already doing 4.7M euro = $5M @ ER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 I thought you were asking about OW, 5mil total are safe of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 19 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: I thought you were asking about OW, 5mil total are safe of course! Where do you think JW2 end up with? It's a significant increase from the original Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 No Thursday estimates available today :(. I would guess (and it's nothing more) that Logan is in line with expectations. But 400k will be tough. In the theaters I look at it had only pretty modest reservations till yesterday but over night it increased. WOM is very good so far. La La Land should have a big increase, Silence is sadly not doing very well and the (other) holdovers seem to have nice holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Friday estimates from insidekino.de: #1: Logan - 325k (about 300k Thu-Sun) #2: B&T4 - 300k (-15%, wow) #3: 50SoG2 - 200k (-35%) #4: JW2 - 100k (-35%) #5: LEGOBatman - 90k (-10%, now that would be nice but was overestimated every weekend) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): New Releases: Logan: 50k (starts in 598 theaters, very good reviews) Der junge Karl Marx: 10.6k (280, mediocre to very good reviews) → 65k OW predicted in the first trend Silence: 2.1k (184, very good reviews) → 15k OW predicted Holdovers: Bibi & Tina - Tohuwabohu total!: 40k (38k) Fifty Shades Darker: 35k (41k) John Wick 2:15k (21k) La La Land: 15k (9k) → 90k OW predicted, last weekend it had 73k admissions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just got out. Yup, really good. In fact it's fucking surreal to see a SH movie that plays out the way it does. Jackman probably gives the best superhero performance yet. Comparing it with TDK feels futile though, like comparing No Country For Old Men with Heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 (edited) A nice 2. trend: Logan - The Wolverine: 340k Bibi & Tina - Tohuwabohu total!: 325k FSD: 220k John Wick 2: 100k La La Land: 95k ,+30% The LEGO Batman Movie: 90k, -10% Lion: 70k - so it stays practically flat Recep Ivedik 5: 70k A Cure for Wellness: 60k - that's also an impressive hold, had 77k admissions last weekend, so -22% Der junge Karl Marx: 55k Split: 50k, -10% Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 45k - stays flat Hidden Figures: 35k Moana: 30k Bailey/A Dog's Purpose: 27,5k ...Silence: 15k Edited March 4, 2017 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Less than 10% down for B&T! A great drop. Less than 30% drop for FSOG2 - this has great legs in Germany... Hidden Figures again with a great 15% drop. Moana stays flat - what a run! I hope those drops will hold. Today weather seems to be quite well all over Germany, but tomorow is predicted to be worse. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 Sunday estimates and we're back to the numbers from Friday estimates 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Final numbers are in and it's looking much better again - actuals tomorrow but B&T3 fell only 6%, fantastic! Good opening for Logan, and good drops everywhere else (LaLaLand increased 40%!) In Austria, Logan was #1 (much stronger than the last Wolverine or X-Men films); Wilde Maus still #2 - it's already very close to 200k total, 300k look hard (this week it dropped 30%) but still possible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bibi & Tina 4 333.835 759 440 933.698 6.061.956 -5 2 2 Logan 311.652 598 521 344.327 3.238.372 - 1 3 Fifty Shades of Grey 2 220.970 648 341 2.990.645 26.796.411 -27 4 4 La La Land 104.083 785 133 1.420.171 12.175.518 +42 8 5 John Wick 2 100.929 525 192 646.423 5.666.302 -34 3 6 The LEGO Batman Movie 92.066 550 167 742.103 5.797.751 -9 4 7 Lion 72.882 183 398 192.551 1.613.286 +1 2 8 Recep Ivedik 5 68.344 112 610 480.833 4.254.150 -49 3 9 A Cure for Wellness 54.895 397 138 163.660 1.516.321 -29 2 10 Der junge Karl Marx 50.234 267 188 53.375 411.290 - 1 11 Split 46.637 353 132 1.141.288 9.744.124 -24 6 12 Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben 42.212 409 103 664.811 5.357.014 -4 6 13 Hidden Figures 38.527 311 124 356.761 2.926.666 -6 5 14 Moana 30.981 451 69 2.061.770 15.730.788 +4 11 15 A Dog's Purpose 29.719 221 13 90.571 671.486 -21 2 16 Sing 18.276 247 74 2.422.069 19.024.901 +23 13 17 Wendy 18.054 517 35 589.667 3.792.547 -8 6 18 Elle 16.597 100 166 106.581 862.079 -33 3 19 Trainspotting 2 16.413 280 59 129.517 1.085.668 -37 3 20 Manchester by the Sea 16.262 188 87 229.841 1.929.065 +38 7 A very fine weekend, with a good opener and overall excellent drops or even increases! Family stuff and awards material were especially strong - La La Land now with 1,4mil total on a market that is not friendly to musicals at all. Bibi & Tina 4 are very strong, the 2mil total of part 3 seem possible again. Even Moana and Sing had little comebacks. Next weekend: Logan had a good opening but with Kong: Skull Island there's direct competition for it coming up; Kong should open in the same range as Logan did this weekend and become #1. Sleepless and Moonlight are smaller releases, as Austrian crime comedy Wilde Maus which is a big hit in Austria, but tastes differ. With no new family releases, holdovers in that demo should see nice drops again. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 btw, Austria's February numbers are in; it's been a very strong one but mostly thanks to holiday/weekend alignments, we had an accordingly weak January - taken Jan+Feb, we're still more than 10% behind 2015 and 2016 (though ahead of 2014 ...) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 going by my theater on OD, Kong will not beat Logan's OW ... but then maybe it's less frontloaded and can catch up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) Nowhere school holidays this week(end). The Thursday estimates (insidekino.de/forum): New Releases: Kong: Skull Island: 26k (starts in 545 theaters, some mixed, some good and also some very good reviews) – not bad but it has to improve a lot to reach Logan's numbers. Logan had 50k last Thursday but was probably more frontloaded and some states had school holidays so it's not really comparable. Sleepless: 4.5k (222, bad and mixed reviews) Moonlight: 8.5k (94, good and very good reviews) – looks good Wilde Maus: 3.5k (91, good and very good reviews) - also not bad Holdovers: Logan: 29.5k (50k) Fifty Shades Darker: 14.5k (35k) John Wick 2: 8k (15k) Lion: 6k Recep Ivedik 5: 1k A Cure for Wellness: 2.5k Der junge Karl Marx: 3.5k (10.6k) Split: 3.5k Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 2k The same applies for the holdovers: No holiday boost and that's why some drops look a bit harsh. Logan is doing pretty fine. Edited March 9, 2017 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 First weekend trends from insidekino.de: #1: Kong - 325k (incl. previews) #2: Logan - 250k (-20%, how nice!) #3: B&T4 - 190k (-45%) #4: 50SoG2 - 120k (-45%) #5: Moonlight - 85k - excellent PTA here, real surprise if true 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 (edited) Wow, that's much better for Kong than I feared the whole week with the wimpy reservation numbers :). And that with a still strong Logan. Moonlight also nice but not surprising. Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): Kong: 36k - so 10k stronger than estimated! I didn't dare to write yesterday that I hope it will have strong walk-ups, but obviously it had. Logan: 28k FSD: 17k Bibi & Tina 4: 11k Moonlight: 10k Sleepless: 6k Wilde Maus: 5k Edited March 10, 2017 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 As mentioned, if I look at my theater, Kong doesn't look nearly as strong ... that Logan drop is the real surprise this weekend (if true); I had thought it would crumble against Kong but both movies seem to co-exist rather well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 (edited) as during last weekend, estimates are going down ... now, Kong: 300k, Logan: 225k, B&T4: 175k ... only 50SoG2 up a bit Edited March 11, 2017 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3rd trend is even worse due to beautiful weather : Kong: 275k Logan: 190k (-40%) B&T4: 160k (-52%) FSD: 130k (-41%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...